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Would you buy stock in home builders
There was an article in kiplinger that said it was a good time to buy stock in companies that built homes like BZH and PHM. They were saying that the market has bottomed out on home sales and the market can only go back up. What do you guys think
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Was it in one of their "Stocks to Buy Now!" articles? Kiplinger's, Money, etc., don't have good track records when it comes to recommending specific investments, and to verify this you may want to see what those publications said a few years ago.
Economist A. Gary Schilling is pessimistic about the housing industry and in this MarketWatch article[marketwatch.com] says home construction went from 6.3% of GDP in 2005 to just 2.2% now. He's pessimistic about the US economy overall, partly because of the housing market, which he said could take a decade to recover after hitting bottom (which he thinks hasn't happened yet). Shilling isn't a genius who's always right (nor does he pretend to be, unlike some highly political economic pundits), and the article mentions some of his past errors.
I don't understand the appeal of publicly traded home building companies because all builders use the same construction methods and lack cost advantages over smaller builders, and apparently the only thing they can do better than smaller firms is to buy large tracts of land near urban areas.
No. Booms are a great time to invest in these companies, they get alot of work, leading to needs to get more cash to hire workers they can barely verify their carpentry skills, and the price goes up. Now's the time where no one wants another cookie-cuter home, and they're trying to dodge those calls to repair their shoddy construction.
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