Cosmopolitan Las Vegas: $100 Play Credit If You Lose $100 at Slots (New Players Club)

Quote from obsidiansti : Oh they know. That's what the pitboss is for. They track how much you bought in for, how much you are betting per hand, and the current level of your stack. It's not 100% accurate but it's pretty close.

Other than one time at Vegas I've always made money at the casino...is that why I've never gotten any comps of any sort? I never knew they kept track like that. I always hear how people get their rooms comped and stuff, I have no idea how. I never get anything though.

This is a great promotion, and they seem to always renew it. My advice is play their $5 slots, and if you hit big save this promotion for another day. If you lose the $100, ask them to apply the $100 promotional credit to your players card. Then head over to a single player video roulette table like this [ballytech.com]. Put $47 on red, $47 on black, $3 on 0, and $3 on 00. If you hit red or black, you get back $94. If you hit 0 or 00, you get $105. The most you will lose is $6, but it's possible you win $5 as well. Basically you get to gamble $100 for $6.

Quote from StoreRobber : Boring it may seem, a $1 wagering in blackjack can win you just another dollar. With some slots, $1 wins plenty. However, blackjack is a game of skills, slots are for dummies.

Although I agree that, in general, slots are for dummies, they aren't so bad that you can't overcome the house edge with this extra $100 in insurance.

Quote from 1stbuy : How does it track table winnings?

Table winnings/losses have nothing to do with this promo, you have to lose on the slots, and your freeplay is for the slots.

In general, table play is tracked using an "average bet size" method and you're rated by the hour. FYI- in most/all casinos, you get points for table game play very slowly, compared to slots.

Quote from schneiks : I'm confused, so do I sign up for the card now or after I blow $100. It says in the rules that when I lose my $100 I bring my card to the desk and they will put $100 on it - new members only. Well, what is their definition of new? Can I sign up now and be eligible when I'm out there 10 days from now?

I would just wait until you come out to sign up for the card. I think that you'll be eligible until you accept a different signup promo or this one expires, but it only takes 5 minutes to get the card, so you might as well make sure.

Quote from 1stbuy : Other than one time at Vegas I've always made money at the casino...is that why I've never gotten any comps of any sort? I never knew they kept track like that. I always hear how people get their rooms comped and stuff, I have no idea how. I never get anything though.

You have to bet an awful lot to get something comped. From what I've read/heard, the casino doesn't give a shit if you win or lose, it's just their expected value on your play (based on the volume of your play). For example, say that the house edge on blackjack is such that you're expected to lose about 2% of your wager. If you bet $25, the casino sees that as you making a $.50 donation. After you reach a certain threshold (probably something like double the cost of the room, so $300 expected loss, or the equivalent of $15k bet on blackjack), they'll start throwing rooms your way. If you start finding yourself getting rooms comped, that's a good sign that you're playing way too much.

Quote from thelnel52 : In general, table play is tracked using an "average bet size" method and you're rated by the hour. FYI- in most/all casinos, you get points for table game play very slowly, compared to slots. You have to bet an awful lot to get something comped. From what I've read/heard, the casino doesn't give a shit if you win or lose, it's just their expected value on your play (based on the volume of your play). For example, say that the house edge on blackjack is such that you're expected to lose about 2% of your wager. If you bet $25, the casino sees that as you making a $.50 donation. After you reach a certain threshold (probably something like double the cost of the room, so $300 expected loss, or the equivalent of $15k bet on blackjack), they'll start throwing rooms your way. If you start finding yourself getting rooms comped, that's a good sign that you're playing way too much.

Damn, didnt know this stuff. Yeah, I don't plan on ever blowing that kinda cash in a casino...I'm in the $500-1000 range tops. I just go for fun, and its nice to be able to spend a weekend somewhere and cover the cost of the weekend by winning.

And yeah, that makes sense, the last time my friends went to Vegas they had blown like $6k, and wound up getting their entire trip comped. Wasn't sure if they cared for us peons though, but this explains it.

Quote from eggsalad : Your right about that. i guess they do track you This is a funny promotion. I'm Required to lose $100 not just play $100 I'm Amazed

You don't want to try and lose the first $100, the promotion operates like insurance. If you sit down and win (which is a very real possibility), you walk away and try again the next day. If you lose, it gives you a really good chance of recouping most of your money.

So what happen if you lose only $99.

Quote from backspace : So what happen if you lose only $99.

Then you should play another dollar.

I was curious about how all this breaks down, so, as I was just making broad estimates before, so I sat down with some simulation software last night using real games from Cosmopolitan. The software will run through billions of scenarios to give you a breakdown of the likelihood of all possible outcomes. The basic rules I set up were: You will play $5/hand Jacks or Better video poker with your initial $100. If you get up $100, you quit and leave, if you lose $100, you quit and collect your freeplay. If you collect your freeplay, you will play 80 hands $1.25/hand bonus poker (enough to run through the $100 once). For the freeplay, I consider a good result to be cashing out over $115, a neutral result is to cash out $90-$115 and a poor result to cash out less than $90.

The results were: On your initial $100, there is a 35% chance you will win $100, there is a 65% chance you will go broke before that happens. (I'm rounding to the nearest %)

On the freeplay:
Good result: 29%
Neutral result: 37%
Bad result: 33%

The freeplay basically looks like a bell curve around $95 return. It's worth noting, that there is less than .01% chance you will cash out less than $46, and a less than .01% chance that you will cash out more than $220, so we'll use them as the upper and lower boundaries.

Determining the value of the promotion then is:

(.35 * 100) + ((.29 * 15) - (.37 * 10) - (.33 * 54)) = $17.83

If we use the absolutely most pessimistic numbers, the promotion is worth $17.83. If we look at the most likely outcome in the 3 groups, the equation is:

(.35 * 100) + ((.29 * 15) - (.37 * 5) - (.33 * 15)) = $32.55

I know people like to be pessimistic, but we end up with is the following if you do this promotion:
Good result (up between $15 and $220): 54%
Neutral result (between -10 and +15 of your initial wager) 24%
Bad result (between -$10 and -$54): 21%

This whole thing does not include the possibility of winning the first day and coming back and trying it again the next day. This increases the value of the promotion.

It is a great promo when you include your free drinks!

Quote from Odds : I was curious about how all this breaks down, so, as I was just making broad estimates before, so I sat down with some simulation software last night using real games from Cosmopolitan. The software will run through billions of scenarios to give you a breakdown of the likelihood of all possible outcomes. The basic rules I set up were: You will play $5/hand Jacks or Better video poker with your initial $100. If you get up $100, you quit and leave, if you lose $100, you quit and collect your freeplay. If you collect your freeplay, you will play 80 hands $1.25/hand bonus poker (enough to run through the $100 once). For the freeplay, I consider a good result to be cashing out over $115, a neutral result is to cash out $90-$115 and a poor result to cash out less than $90. The results were: On your initial $100, there is a 35% chance you will win $100, there is a 65% chance you will go broke before that happens. (I'm rounding to the nearest %) On the freeplay: Good result: 29% Neutral result: 37% Bad result: 33% The freeplay basically looks like a bell curve around $95 return. It's worth noting, that there is less than .01% chance you will cash out less than $46, and a less than .01% chance that you will cash out more than $220, so we'll use them as the upper and lower boundaries. Determining the value of the promotion then is: (.35 * 100) + ((.29 * 15) - (.37 * 10) - (.33 * 54)) = $17.83 If we use the absolutely most pessimistic numbers, the promotion is worth $17.83. If we look at the most likely outcome in the 3 groups, the equation is: (.35 * 100) + ((.29 * 15) - (.37 * 5) - (.33 * 15)) = $32.55 I know people like to be pessimistic, but we end up with is the following if you do this promotion: Good result (up between $15 and $220): 54% Neutral result (between -10 and +15 of your initial wager) 24% Bad result (between -$10 and -$54): 21% This whole thing does not include the possibility of winning the first day and coming back and trying it again the next day. This increases the value of the promotion.

Great info!

As someone mentioned before, comps are based on your "theo" or theoretical loss. If you typically spend (Lose) $1000, then you play quite a bit more than that. Lets say that you actually played through $10000 and wound up losing $1000 over the course of an entire trip. If the house edge of whatever your playing is 5%, then theoretically you should lose $500. Standard comps are usually 40% of your theo so in this case you should receive offers valued up to $200. That equates to several nights comped depending on the property. They also have other ways to comp such as express comps and such.

Quote from obsidiansti : Great info! As someone mentioned before, comps are based on your "theo" or theoretical loss. If you typically spend (Lose) $1000, then you play quite a bit more than that. Lets say that you actually played through $10000 and wound up losing $1000 over the course of an entire trip. If the house edge of whatever your playing is 5%, then theoretically you should lose $500. Standard comps are usually 40% of your theo so in this case you should receive offers valued up to $200. That equates to several nights comped depending on the property. They also have other ways to comp such as express comps and such.

Where do you come up with the 40% comp number for theoretical loss? I always wondered how this worked.

Its just the standard number used my most casinos. It will vary from time to time but that is fairly typical. There have been several articles written about the comp structure and how they work. It's actually pretty interesting.

Quote from StoreRobber : Boring it may seem, a $1 wagering in blackjack can win you just another dollar. With some slots, $1 wins plenty. However, blackjack is a game of skills, slots are for dummies.

Blackjack is a game of skill and LUCK

You forgot that part.

I, like a lot of others, should ignore the ignorant posts about this being a bad deal, those who understand statistics, understand this is a deal which works in the player's favor.

Quote from vectorx : I played this promotion at the end of August 2011. They keep extending the promotion expiration date and I'm surprised its lasted this long. The rule then was you could win 'everyday' and when you realized your first daily loss you would get that much in freeplay (up to $100) on your players card. I played the 50 play video poker machines ($2.50 for 50 hands), sticking in a $100 bill and playing until the total was > $130 or I lost the entire $100. I booked 3 daily wins before losing my $100. I checked at the players club everyday before I played to make sure the promo was still on AND I was still eligible. When I finally lost my $100, I went back to the players club and my account was instantly loaded with $100 in freeplay, I played it thru the VP machine ONCE and fortunately got a $40 royal flush, cashing out at $128. I did the Tropicana $200 new player promo last month and walked out with an extra $147, again 50-play video poker. This promo was when you lost $200 you would get $100 of it instantly back in freeplay on your players card and the other $100 would be loaded onto your card in 30 days, and would be available for one year. I visit Vegas a couple times a years so coming back to pick up the second $100 wasn't an issue. Fortunately, I won and just walked away. The Cannery casinos $100 rebate new player promos said something about 'mailing' you your rebate in 7 days, not such a good deal unless you live there or nearby. The Cannery casinos tend to cater to locals anyway. These type of promotions give you the opportunity to play a higher denomination machine with the chance to win something BIG, but if you don't, you can get your freeplay, play it thru ONCE, and LEAVE! VX

Great info, I would like to know what odds you found with 50 hand video poker. Generally they are very bad odds, but you sound like you know what you are doing, so therefore I ask.

Great way to utilize this promo, I expect to play a similar strategy when I visit. Repp'd.

Quote from Odds : I know people like to be pessimistic, but we end up with is the following if you do this promotion: Good result (up between $15 and $220): 54% Neutral result (between -10 and +15 of your initial wager) 24% Bad result (between -$10 and -$54): 21% This whole thing does not include the possibility of winning the first day and coming back and trying it again the next day. This increases the value of the promotion.

What odds of Video Poker did you compile this simulation with? Many strip/near strip casinos do not have 9/6 Jacks or better.