Greece Likely to Exit Euro This Year, FX Concept’s Taylor Says

Quote from LivninSC : Who says they're exiting the Euro zone? I just assumed they'd remain in it while having their own currency. Like the UK for example...

It's important to differentiate here between the Euro-Zone and the European Union. An exit from the EZ would necessarily mean a return to the drachma or the establishment of a new currency, if I understand the terms correctly.

Quote from burninator : It's important to differentiate here between the Euro-Zone and the European Union. An exit from the EZ would necessarily mean a return to the drachma or the establishment of a new currency, if I understand the terms correctly.

Aahh, I believe you are correct sir and I am not

Quote from DJPlayer : so your anger is directed at the banks for loaning money to a government that couldn't spend responsibly? When people drive irresponsibly are you angry at the car company for making the car, or the salesman who sold it to them, or maybe the insurance company that covered them or maybe the state for allowing them to pass the exam? Maybe Greece should be selling off some of their land and property to payoff some of their debt.

No my anger is that banks took a huge risk to a subprime lender, reaped what it could gouge, then when the subprime finally defaulted, they weaseled out of the risk. If the banks have to deal with the consequences for bad loans they make then I wouldn't be upset.

The greeks are already suffering (and it will get worse) for their actions, while the bankers
basically not only get away consequence free, but most of them probably made a tidey profit over the years.

Quote from 808Lurker : No my anger is that banks took a huge risk to a subprime lender, reaped what it could gouge, then when the subprime finally defaulted, they weaseled out of the risk. If the banks have to deal with the consequences for bad loans they make then I wouldn't be upset. The greeks are already suffering (and it will get worse) for their actions, while the bankers basically not only get away consequence free, but most of them probably made a tidey profit over the years.

I feel you man, really do. It used to piss me off to no end. Now I've trained myself to channel that into something productive, bit it preparedness, correct fiscal posture and a ninja mental state to combat what's to come. When every one else be freekin', I be cool like Fonzie...but ready to move like a cat....a cat wearing SHTF armor.

Greece elections: Extremist Golden Dawn party, which rejects neo-Nazi label, set to win 7 percent of the vote in stunning rise [nydailynews.com]

Quote from 808Lurker : No my anger is that banks took a huge risk to a subprime lender, reaped what it could gouge, then when the subprime finally defaulted, they weaseled out of the risk. If the banks have to deal with the consequences for bad loans they make then I wouldn't be upset. The greeks are already suffering (and it will get worse) for their actions, while the bankers basically not only get away consequence free, but most of them probably made a tidey profit over the years.

I guess my next question is why the government is not treated like a private individual (actually maybe they are). If I bite off more than I can chew (debt wise). Banks are coming to take my stuff away (thus why you have equity and collateral). The governments owns quite a bit of assets. They default on their loan and like any other individual, they should lose the equivalent in assets to satisfy the loan. Although this is socialist Europe..

It seems we're both angry.. my anger is at Greece for continuing with loans and deceiving the rest of the world on their debt ratio. Greece is not a teenager that needs to babysat with how they borrow and spend (at least, shouldn't be).

Who will you blame when other countries start defaulting on their debt.. obviously not the borrowers because they have no control over how much they borrow or how they spend it.

This is the biggest slow-motion crash I've seen in awhile. The PIIGS just need to default and leave the euro. Given how many countries are involved, it actually makes sense for the euro to die off.

Greeks are idiots. Especially after this latest election the writing is on the wall for them. On the bright side this could mean cheap tourism for anyone wanting to go visit Greece!!!

Quote from brbubba : Greeks are idiots. Especially after this latest election the writing is on the wall for them. On the bright side this could mean cheap tourism for anyone wanting to go visit Greece!!!

Greece: Come for the history. Stay for the neo-fascism.

Quote from DJPlayer : I guess my next question is why the government is not treated like a private individual (actually maybe they are). If I bite off more than I can chew (debt wise). Banks are coming to take my stuff away (thus why you have equity and collateral). The governments owns quite a bit of assets. They default on their loan and like any other individual, they should lose the equivalent in assets to satisfy the loan. Although this is socialist Europe.. It seems we're both angry.. my anger is at Greece for continuing with loans and deceiving the rest of the world on their debt ratio. Greece is not a teenager that needs to babysat with how they borrow and spend (at least, shouldn't be). Who will you blame when other countries start defaulting on their debt.. obviously not the borrowers because they have no control over how much they borrow or how they spend it.

Let me try this again.

Blame
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I blame the Greek Government for running up the debt.
I blame the Greek citizens for voting in a government that ran up the debt.
I blame the Greek dogs for living in Greece (had to throw that in as sarcasm)
I blame the banks for making loans to an entity that would never repay them.

Consequences
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
When the Greek Government defaults, it will most likely have it's international assests
seized and other repurcussions for amassing the debt. They will suffer the consequences for their actions.

When the Greek Government defaults, the Greek Citizens will suffer because they will lose most of their lifestyle, get hit will huge tax increases, reduction in services, massive layoffs, etc etc. They will suffer the consequences of their actions..

When the Greek Government defaults, the banks who made the bad loans, well they already got off scott free, already made a tidy sum, and pushed their consequences off to taxpayers in other countries. They did not suffer for their poor choices, in fact just about all benefited. That is what makes me angry.

See where I am going here?

Lurker, the banks are still only a symptom of the underlying problem.

The banks have been allowed to legislate revenue streams with little to no risk. Even during the crisis, the banks that did not fail were allowed to pick clean the "good" assets from the banks that failed (WaMu, etc.) and then leave the rest to either fall into limbo or let one of the bigger arms (Fannie/Freddie, etc.) pick them up.

Passing legislation to "fix" this is not a solution. The governments (yes plural) need to remove the influence of the banks and let the banks run their own show, not getting involved in these types of situations again.

BTW: The banks are not scot free. There will be some massive losses, some will be socialized by tax payers in multiple countries and some will simply be losses. Saying "all but benefited" is completely inaccurate. Even the major banks had major short term solvency issues. Once the major players got through that, it was time to begin picking clean all the desirable assets from the failed banks and repeat the past buddy buddy system with the gov.

Quote from mohater : Lurker, the banks are still only a symptom of the underlying problem. The banks have been allowed to legislate revenue streams with little to no risk. Even during the crisis, the banks that did not fail were allowed to pick clean the "good" assets from the banks that failed (WaMu, etc.) and then leave the rest to either fall into limbo or let one of the bigger arms (Fannie/Freddie, etc.) pick them up.

I agree with you here.

Quote : Passing legislation to "fix" this is not a solution. The governments (yes plural) need to remove the influence of the banks and let the banks run their own show, not getting involved in these types of situations again.

I think we are past the point of return here. With citizens united, money pretty much controls politics. The best example is Romney, no one is excited for him, but he raised the most cash and was able to use that to pull out primary wins.

Quote : BTW: The banks are not scot free. There will be some massive losses, some will be socialized by tax payers in multiple countries and some will simply be losses. Saying "all but benefited" is completely inaccurate.

I should have used "slap on the wrist", I do know some like Corizone were on the losing side, but for the most part the "bankers and institutional" will be largerly untouched.

I am not excusing the Greek government or people, but it's pretty clear they will be paying for this for decades, while the banks are already bank to normal.

Quote : Even the major banks had major short term solvency issues. Once the major players got through that, it was time to begin picking clean all the desirable assets from the failed banks and repeat the past buddy buddy system with the gov.

Hence my anger.

Quote from 808Lurker : I think we are past the point of return here. With citizens united, money pretty much controls politics. The best example is Romney, no one is excited for him, but he raised the most cash and was able to use that to pull out primary wins.

That decision could be reversed by the court as easily as it was passed.
Obama has his own superpac now and doesn't mind the all the limitless prowess it offers.

Here's the caveat letting the gov "fix" the banks:

The very org that set up the lax rules to allow the banks this environment is the group you expect to fix it? That's like trusting an activejunkie to help clean the drugs off the street.

Quote from 808Lurker : I should have used "slap on the wrist", I do know some like Corizone were on the losing side, but for the most part the "bankers and institutional" will be largerly untouched. I am not excusing the Greek government or people, but it's pretty clear they will be paying for this for decades, while the banks are already bank to normal.

Corizone dug his own grave by putting all his eggs in one basket and then his org robbing the PERSONAL accounts of its inventors (not the investment accounts). The banks had a mix of healthy and toxic assets. Corizone had one.


The best analogy here is the war on drugs. Enforcement is on the users and not the trade. Thus you get a lot of "collateral" damage where the public is most affected by both the trade and the enforcement to restrict the trade.

With the banks and the gov. The banks and gov both absolve themselves of any wrong doing (when both are supposed to be the gatekeepers - the banks doing due dilligence to make sure loans are low risk for default and gov doing the enforcement to make sure an industry doesn't poison the economy). The end result is again the public is the collateral damage while the banks (the ones who made it) and the gov going back to business as usual.

Being angry at the banks doesn't solve anything.

Quote from burninator : It's possible also that a European monetary union was doomed from the start. Some research [ft.com] suggests that it's one of the most implausible unions that could have been imagined.

Ive been telling Oliver Kamm that for going on a decade or two now. It's not the size that is the kicker, it's the diversity. Simple as that. The US militarilly subjugated the South and West to the North-East Financial-Industrialists, and monetary policy was made to suit them, which is part of the reason that the West (excepting the coast) and South languished for the last century economically.