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Rate My Stock Portfolio

SP33DFR34K 17,902 May 21, 2012 at 03:29 PM
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The purpose of this thread is for people to post their real life portfolio to get feedback and help other get ideas for stock that they can add to their portfolio, etc.

Portfolio Diversification:
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My strategy are big market cap players with growth potential, mixed with some smaller cap big dividend payout.

Apple (AAPL) - Mobile device profit dominator

Qualcomm (QCOM) - Mobile device exposure

Microsoft (MSFT) - PC dominance. Xbox investment will pay off. Windows 8 coming up. Possible Windows 8 mobile OS doing well.

Starbucks (SBUX) & Yum! Brands - China exposure to food and drinks. SBUX just has a loyal following.

Mc Donald (MCD) - Dependable fast food. Using this as a hedge for fast food, still not immune to rising commodity cost.

Pepsi (PEP) - #2 soda. Investing into food snacks. Possible spin off of the frito lay brands. 3.16% dividend.

Armour REIT (ARR) & Annaly Capital (ARR) - Big dividend players, paying 17% and 13% annually.

Century Link (CTL) & ATT (T) - Century Link for broadband and telecom exposure, and expanding. ATT for mobile phone exposure. Both for its dividend 7.5% and 5%.

Bank of America (BAC) - Big bank. Holding for long term investment. Might switch out for Wells Fargo for more stable growth or a financial index.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) - Diablo 3, auction house, Project Titan, and hardcore loyal following

Schwab US Large Cap ETF (SCHG) & Schwab US Small Cap ETF(SCHA) - Indexes for some diversification.

I'm obviously heavily invested in tech & food. But it just happens to be industries I'm familiar with laugh out loud I might add something like a Costco or Whole Foods for a retailer. Coach if I want more China exposure. Ebay for the merchant stores and paypal mobile play.

17 Comments

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Joined Jun 2011
L7: Teacher
371 Reputation
#2
apple i dont like long term,any one can make computer or tablet or phone,100 dollar tablets are flyng out of china as are phones,they have a lot of cash,and the apps and itunes are making money,but in 2 years they will have lost advantage,Qualcomm dont like it,expect ntel to try and take its buisness,microsoft,i have it will go up up,but i dont like.it stuck at same price or years,it overpays for stuff like skype,wanted to ovrpay for yahoo,only token in the mobile phone market,as it knows if it brings out a very good os for phones,it will
hurt windows sale,starbucks is doing well as coffee prices are low,their phone app will affect staff moral,no tips,bank of amerca,dont get into any banks
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Joined Oct 2010
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#3
What other types of assets do you own? If this is it, you're not hedged - you're a sitting duck.
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#4
Need some gold, silver, and other commodities to hedge your portfolio. Market goes south - so does 100% of your portfolio... as probably seen last week...
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Joined Nov 2009
Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro
#5
I thank the OP for starting this thread to share opinions like this as some good insights will be shared.

OP, in my opinion you are missing some important industries that should be included in your diversification.

A few of my holdings that I feel would look good in your mix are:

PRGO: private labelled generic drugs
AGP , UNH: Healthcare for the aging baby boomers.
KMT: old stalwart industrial
PM: the best looking holding in my portfolio over the last 5 years plus 3.63% dividend.

I use the word 'holding' as while I also enjoy AAPL I have jumped in and out as well as owned options since it was 280 but trade it rather than hold it. I like trading AAPL, but I prefer to hold MSFT and GOOG.
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Joined Aug 2005
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#6
Quote from barnz008 View Post :
What other types of assets do you own? If this is it, you're not hedged - you're a sitting duck.
I have other assets, but to keep this thread focus on stocks, I won't be mentioning them.

Quote from Hpnotiqpenguin View Post :
Need some gold, silver, and other commodities to hedge your portfolio. Market goes south - so does 100% of your portfolio... as probably seen last week...
Gold the past few weeks seem to be following the market, so doesn't look exactly like a hedge.
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Joined Dec 2008
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#7
F because apple sucks.

OH MY! What look what I did there!


JK, it looks decent to me but id dump the starbucks, its more of a fad that will die.
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Joined Oct 2010
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#8
Quote from SP33DFR34K View Post :
Gold the past few weeks seem to be following the market, so doesn't look exactly like a hedge.
Price any stock or index in gold and you'll see how many paper schemes are declining just as your relative return is, and will be, eroded over time in $US.

http://evilspeculator.com/wp-cont...lation.png

But yes, gold sometimes trends with equities in the short term, but in the long term, not at all. Do you have to hedge with gold? Of course not. My original point was: live by the sword, die by the sword.
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Joined Jun 2007
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#9
Quote from barnz008 View Post :
Price any stock or index in gold and you'll see how many paper schemes are declining just as your relative return is, and will be, eroded over time in $US.

http://evilspeculator.com/wp-cont...lation.png

But yes, gold sometimes trends with equities in the short term, but in the long term, not at all. Do you have to hedge with gold? Of course not. My original point was: live by the sword, die by the sword.
Gold is not an investment. Its intrinsic value is much less then its market value. Speculate at your own risk.

That being said you can use it as a proxy for CASH when you think money printing is going to occur.
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Joined Jun 2007
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#10
AAPL = Solid Company, may be maturing now but will be solid for a good 3-5 years. Worst case scenario if they actually get competitors, they could just cut their prices and everyone would be into APPL again.

MSFT = Solid FCF. Their stock went nowhere for years because its P/E multiple was ridiculous. It is actually a good value play now.

If you really like the China domestic consumption theme, SBUX is not the way to do it. Go grab the ECON etf which plays off of that them in the emerging markets.

MCD = Defensive stock. Not a great bargain- you get what you pay for.

PEP = Similar to MCD, a little less defensive with slightly more growth opportunities.

BAC = Negative Equity. Only keep them if you are willing to tolerate them not really appreciating for 10 years.

ACC = Careful here- you seem to be focused on Return on Capital and might be forgetting on Return OF Capital. I don't know if they have an operational advantage in REITs or something but REITs aren't known to be the best investments.

CTL = Way over priced

ATT = They are so screwed going forward. The only thing that kept their business afloat were the iPhone contracts. Their network is pretty terrible and are not building out fast enough to keep up with Verizon. Too crappy to compete on quality vs. Verizon, too expensive to compete on price vs. Sprint.

ATVI - I don't mind this stock actually, I would just pay attention to the employees who work here. If you ever see major game designers leaving- abandon ship.

SCHG&SCHA - I would swap these out with IVV and IWM. Better float and liquidity I think.

Overall I would give your portfolio a 2/10 doesn't mean you can't make money, just means that you aren't going make the amount of money that you should be given the amount of risk you are taking.

I'm a hardcore value investor by the way. I invest with the same philosophy that I am here at Slickdeals for - find good stuff for cheap.
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Joined Oct 2010
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#11
Quote from jarheadL337 View Post :
Speculate at your own risk.
Is that what those tiny words say streaming across the screen at the beginning and the end of every Mad Money episode?

Equities are such a great investment - esp if you goal is to swim in the illusion that you're making money by owning them. shake head Just another brilliant idea invented by the bankers to take stock in. Big Grin
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#12
Quote from barnz008 View Post :
Is that what those tiny words say streaming across the screen at the beginning and the end of every Mad Money episode?

Equities are such a great investment - esp if you goal is to swim in the illusion that you're making money by owning them. shake head Just another brilliant idea invented by the bankers to take stock in. Big Grin
It all depends on how you go about it. If you look at the markets in terms of "How can I make easy money?", "What companies should I place my bets on?"- Then you are essentially gambling.

However if you take the time out to study the investment field and learn how to look at the fundamentals of the business- and then buy stock in the same manner you would start a business, then you can call it investing.
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Joined Aug 2005
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#13
Quote :
I'm a hardcore value investor by the way. I invest with the same philosophy that I am here at Slickdeals for - find good stuff for cheap.
I'm also sure you know that value investing is also dependent on the entry point of each of these stock. Many of these I picked up when there was a pullback. If you were to pick up some of these right now, yes it would pricey.

Quote from jarheadL337 View Post :
MSFT = Solid FCF. Their stock went nowhere for years because its P/E multiple was ridiculous. It is actually a good value play now.
I got in on this slightly above $30, and it went for a roller coaster ride and went back down a little further then it went when I entered. But, the new products should be good.

Quote :
If you really like the China domestic consumption theme, SBUX is not the way to do it. Go grab the ECON etf which plays off of that them in the emerging markets.
I'll take a look at these. I know coffee commodity went down a couple of months ago, so when Starbucks hedges with these lower commodity cost, it'll affect their bottom line positively. My pure Asia play is mainly YUM. Its a rockstar over in Asia, and still expanding.

Quote :
MCD = Defensive stock. Not a great bargain- you get what you pay for.
Right now is a better entry point then a couple of months, if you were to get in on it.

Quote :
PEP = Similar to MCD, a little less defensive with slightly more growth opportunities.
I got this in at this when there was a pullback. It has growth opportunities. I actually like that they're the #2 beverage company since Coke keeps them competing.

Quote :
BAC = Negative Equity. Only keep them if you are willing to tolerate them not really appreciating for 10 years.
Its a long hold game. I'll consider dumping it if it rallies.

Quote :
ACC = Careful here- you seem to be focused on Return on Capital and might be forgetting on Return OF Capital. I don't know if they have an operational advantage in REITs or something but REITs aren't known to be the best investments.
I was very skeptical too before jumping in. I did a lot of research trying to understand how things work, and while I admit I don't understand everything, I still grasp the core concepts of how REIT work. This is not a buy and hold play for more than a couple of more years due to nature of the industry. But if the dividend yield is 17%+ and the stock goes down 4% for the entire year, your still up 13% for the entire year, which also potentially works out better since your taxed on dividend vs capital gains. (Lets not derail the thread on the current tax issues)

Quote :
CTL = Way over priced
Got in on this for cheap, wouldn't recommend this now.

Quote :
ATT = They are so screwed going forward. The only thing that kept their business afloat were the iPhone contracts. Their network is pretty terrible and are not building out fast enough to keep up with Verizon. Too crappy to compete on quality vs. Verizon, too expensive to compete on price vs. Sprint.
Actually, if you look at the smartphone line I would say ATT has a much more diversify smartphone portfolio. I'm aware that ATT is more iPhone dependent than the other telecos, but this also results in a high retention rate. Not building out as fast as Verizon and Verizon usually has the better network, just means I'll have to keep an eye on this.


Quote :
ATVI - I don't mind this stock actually, I would just pay attention to the employees who work here. If you ever see major game designers leaving- abandon ship.
Yup, I expect Auction House & Diablo 3, which sold 3.5M last week to push them up.

Quote :
SCHG&SCHA - I would swap these out with IVV and IWM. Better float and liquidity I think.
I'll take a look at these.

Quote :
Overall I would give your portfolio a 2/10 doesn't mean you can't make money, just means that you aren't going make the amount of money that you should be given the amount of risk you are taking.
I'm always looking at opportunities to make my portfolio better, thanks for the feedback.
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Joined Oct 2010
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#14
You know, I bought a lot of ATVI after the .com burst for a few bucks a share thinking everytime they came out with some big game the stock would push them up, but that's not how the stock has traded historically. Absent the blow off top in '08, it's just moseyed along. I sold all of it last year around $12.50 IIRC.

Did the same thing with YUM which is way over bought right now. I'd maybe take a look at it in the low $50 range.

Same thing with the hedge fund clusterfvck AAPL. So many millions/billions will be lost chasing some pipe dream. Let the market flush all the chasers out and buy it when it's hated.

And you probably don't need me to preach this to you, but if you marry your trades and get emotinally attached to your investments, you're going to get burned. Esp with anything commodity related, what you see in the real-time price action is everything it has to offer - fear, greed, fundamentals, etc. The rest is nonsense.
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Joined Nov 2007
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#15
Speedfreak,

If you wouldn't buy your holdings at current price, then its time to sell.
Theres a saying that everyday you hold, your buying.
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