Just did some calculation and decided to give up on the giveaway from now on:
Estimate daily entries: 500000
My entries: 50
So my chance of wining: 50/500000 = 1/10000 = 0.0001
Now one would think if I keep participating, eventually I can win. Not so. Lets say I want to get a wining chance of 0.5 (50%). How many times I need to participate to get to that chance? Every time my chance of NOT wining is 1-0.0001 = 0.9999. So:
0.9999 ^ n = 0.5 ==> n = log0.5/log0.9999 = 6931
In other words, I need to participate in the giveaway without wining for 6931 times continuously in order to improve my chance of wining to 0.5. Even if the giveaway is presented daily, that is about 20 years!
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