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| 05-31-2012, 09:37 AM | |
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Just did some calculation and decided to give up on the giveaway from now on:
Estimate daily entries: 500000 My entries: 50 So my chance of wining: 50/500000 = 1/10000 = 0.0001 Now one would think if I keep participating, eventually I can win. Not so. Lets say I want to get a wining chance of 0.5 (50%). How many times I need to participate to get to that chance? Every time my chance of NOT wining is 1-0.0001 = 0.9999. So: 0.9999 ^ n = 0.5 ==> n = log0.5/log0.9999 = 6931 In other words, I need to participate in the giveaway without wining for 6931 times continuously in order to improve my chance of wining to 0.5. Even if the giveaway is presented daily, that is about 20 years! Last edited by metag; 05-31-2012 at 11:08 AM.. |
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A winner's thread here with a special link in the OP with a list of the winners of past contests. Many people have commented and posted pictures of their prizes in the winner's forum. 'Be kinder than necessary, for everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.'
SD FAQ Megathread - Very helpful |
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Timespent: 1d 16h 10m 21s Avg: 1m 22s You don't have enough time logged for extra entries. But you can remedy that by being more active on the site. ![]() Good luck...I love handing out the prizes. It's fun to shop with company money.
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