breaking: hillary clinton wins texas on way to second term (2020)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/201...howAll=yes

assuming these projections hold true, and texas does go blue in 2020/24 or so, what does this mean for the overall electoral picture in this country going forward? can republicans win presidencies without texas outside of red tide type years? naturally some states are shifting red, but this could have long term, very broad implications.

Quote from thikthird : http://www.dailykos.com/story/201...howAll=yes assuming these projections hold true, and texas does go blue in 2020/24 or so, what does this mean for the overall electoral picture in this country going forward? can republicans win presidencies without texas outside of red tide type years? naturally some states are shifting red, but this could have long term, very broad implications.

Assuming, well then we would expect (D)s to generally win. But you'll see the (R)s catering more and more to the Hispanic vote to destroy that 60% majority number Democrats get among Hispanics. Not sure if they will try to do it through Catholic churches or if they will try to do it by appealing to Hispanic favored issues including, but not limited to, immigration.

Quote from Xygonn : Assuming, well then we would expect (D)s to generally win. But you'll see the (R)s catering more and more to the Hispanic vote to destroy that 60% majority number Democrats get among Hispanics. Not sure if they will try to do it through Catholic churches or if they will try to do it by appealing to Hispanic favored issues including, but not limited to, immigration.

definitely. how will that go over with the traditional base though? have they been trying these tactics in places like nv and nm? also, a lot of hispanics are moving away from just catholicism. i know the majority still is, but you get a lot turning out to non-denominational evangelical churches. at least in texas. and at least in my anecdotal experience. not really inclined to research hispanic immigrant religious trends at the moment as this is really just an aside.

Quote from thikthird : definitely. how will that go over with the traditional base though? have they been trying these tactics in places like nv and nm? also, a lot of hispanics are moving away from just catholicism. i know the majority still is, but you get a lot turning out to non-denominational evangelical churches. at least in texas. and at least in my anecdotal experience. not really inclined to research hispanic immigrant religious trends at the moment as this is really just an aside.

Not sure. Maybe you just need to lean more libertarian to absorb more libertarian leaning independents. It worked for Gary Johnson in NM. Maybe you just need to run more Hispanics for office (even if they are against affirmative action laws ).

It's not surprising at all really.
Between the influx of Latin American immigrants willing to work for subservient wages but wishing fervently for a better life - meaning better pay & benefits - for their offspring, and the influx of tech jobs to tax-friendly TX, (which brings with it youth, liberal views, and M>O>N>E>Y in the hands of same), and the natural aging and dying off of the stubborn old coots - who still thought it possible to bring back the Confederacy if only they remained committed to their bigotry long enough and hard enough - TX is following the same curve as the rest of the civilized nation.

That curve trends toward the more liberal views that longer established democracies tend to follow. Older societies tend to be less puritan and more accepting of ideas once thought to be too non-conventional to exist in societies still tied deeply to their ethnic founding roots.
The Millennials, especially, rarely consider race to be a defining characteristic of the people they know, and the Gen-X types preceding them were raised on hip-hop and have accepted Blacks/African Americans as equal partners in modern society.
The same really cannot be said even of the "Love Generation" I belong to and most certainly was never evident in the so-called "Greatest Generation" I sprang from.

Old guards often have one last dying gasp left in them.
It's true with old veteran NFL players, and it's equally true with societies that have outlived their usefulness and are losing their grip on majority control of power within their nation/state.
That dying gasp is what is generally called the Tea Party Movement, today.
Movement is probably more appropriate than some realize, since their values are reflective of the body cleaning itself just before entering a new state of existence - shitting yourself before death.

This persistent longing for "the good old days" is just NOT realistic.
It's NOT going to happen, we will NEVER return, as a society, to the values and conditions of some imagined "Golden Age" that never truly existed in the first place, (crime was just less widely reported before the 24 hour cable coverage of it began) - and quite frankly those of such a mind to return to their delusion should carefully consider those old Chinese proverbs, "May you live in interesting times" & "Be careful what you wish for, you may just get it".

Homicide rate in 1960 was 5.1%/100,000 [infoplease.com]
Homicide rate in 2010 was 4.8%/100,000. [wikipedia.org]
I thought about using force-able rape indices but the self-reporting nature of the crime, changes in the definition of rape from 1950 to 2010, and the willingness of women to report the crime then vs now, all make the statistics too unreliable to use for this argument.
Murder in 1960 was still murder in 2010, and much easier to get reliable stats on.

Returning to the 1950s-like America would entail the very thing those wishing such a thing, revile the most - a return to a tax bracket structure that would look like purgatory, or even HELL, to most of them.

Given that the average Tea Party supporter is

• white
• 50% of them are well into middle-age, 50 or older & nearing or in retirement
• (55%) make over $50k/year & a whopping 81% of them make over $30k/year
• pay a MAXIMUM tax bracket amount of 35% and as low as 15% if they make $70k/year or less.. [bankrate.com]

Do they REALLY want to return to those "good old days"?

ACTUAL 1955 tax brackets - in both 1955 dollars and their equivalent 2010 dollars, adjusted for inflation.

Quote from Anonymouse : [B][COLOR="Green"] and the influx of tech jobs to tax-friendly TX, (which brings with it youth, liberal views, and M>O>N>E>Y in the hands of same), and the natural aging and dying off of the stubborn old coots - who still thought it possible to bring back the Confederacy if only they remained committed to their bigotry long enough and hard enough - TX is following the same curve as the rest of the civilized nation.

Ooh, I like you.

It was notable when I looked at federal tax data that TX was one of the few red states to pay more than they get, and now they're turning blue. I guess there must be a causal relationship between generosity and political views.

could this happen to any other southern states? like could georgia go blue off the strength of atlanta? i mean, that seems like a long shot, but the demographics there and trends in that city are like a microcosm of tx.

Perhaps the Republican party will return minority status... but since we are talking about political evolution and party realignment, I think we should note that the issues that unite these coalitions today may not remain in place well into the coming generation.

Republicans are seen by many as the party of conservatism, and therefore unappealing to the progressive minded youth. But this ignores that both parties are generally progressive since the progressive era, and that at different times have appeared differently. The Republican party of the 1980s to early 2000s appeared as a reform oriented party, espousing a progressive-conservatism along the way. By the same token one might view the Democratic party of the same era as being more conservative in desiring to maintain the status quo on the new deal/ great society reforms. We may debate the wisdom of deregulation, welfare reform, and tax reform, but these issues appear differently at different times... after all, Jimmy Carter was president when the era of deregulation began in earnest with the dissolution of the CAB. Deregulation appeared as a progressive move during the stagflation of the late 70s. Today it seems certain corners of our economy lack proper regulation... not that Obama has really been able to restore Glass-Steagall, but the point is, that needed restoration is seen as progressive. To borrow from Peter Allen, "everything old is new again".

That said, we cannot know with any confidence where we will be on issues like gay marriage, immigration, health care, taxes, regulation, etc in 25 years. (I understand the OP is speaking about an event 8 years from now, but the thread seems to be speaking to the general trend.) Nor can we predict what kind of political thinkers will hold sway in any given party in the future. Presuming all the demographic trends, current political stalemates, and dominant ideologies remain in place for another 20 years, then yes, the republican party seems to be in trouble. But that is a rather large presumption IMO. How many political parties are prepared to remain true to some abstract theory when it's losing elections? None. Political parties are built to win elections, and are always prepared to innovate in order to maintain their ability to do just that.

Quote from agent00f : Ooh, I like you. It was notable when I looked at federal tax data that TX was one of the few red states to pay more than they get, and now they're turning blue. I guess there must be a causal relationship between generosity and political views.

You like being fed a page full of pink and green bloviated nonsense?
He is under the impression that if he posts lots of words, he will come off as informed.
In reality, thats not the case.

While the race relations of gen x and gen y are to be commended,
This generation of self absorbed, twitter followers, will soon be faced with the harsh reality of the outcome of irresponsible liberal policies.

It's only a matter of time. Many will suffer for the sins of a few...

Quote from OhNoItsDEVO : You like being fed a page full of pink and green bloviated nonsense? He is under the impression that if he posts lots of words, he will come off as informed. In reality, thats not the case. While the race relations of gen x and gen y are to be commended, This generation of self absorbed, twitter followers, will soon be faced with the harsh reality of the outcome of irresponsible liberal policies. It's only a matter of time. Many will suffer for the sins of a few...

I believe these are the same sentiments old foggies of every generation express since human started remembering the past with rosy goggles. In any case you're not doing it right; it starts with "Back in my day....".

Quote from agent00f : I believe these are the same sentiments old foggies of every generation express since human started remembering the past with rosy goggles. In any case you're not doing it right; it starts with "Back in my day....".

No rosey glasses here my friend, Im just looking at things clearly and rationally.
Go ahead and tell me where I'm wrong.

Once they realize you can't run the kind of country they want, on the backs of a wealthy few alone, it will all come crashing down. It's only a matter of time. It won't be pretty.

Back in my day..... whats your best guess on when exactly that would be?

Quote from OhNoItsDEVO : No rosey glasses here my friend, Im just looking at things clearly and rationally. Go ahead and tell me where I'm wrong. Once they realize you can't run the kind of country they want, on the backs of a wealthy few alone, it will all come crashing down. It's only a matter of time. It won't be pretty. Back in my day..... whats your best guess on when exactly that would be?

Days of monarchy when peasants didn't dare to lift a finger to the wealthy few?

Quote from agent00f : Days of monarchy when peasants didn't dare to lift a finger to the wealthy few?

And that's what you think I want?
Who's calling for that? Why such hyperbole?

Again, tell me where I've got it wrong.

Quote from OhNoItsDEVO : And that's what you think I want? Who's calling for that? Why such hyperbole? Again, tell me where I've got it wrong.

I don't know what you mean, I just went by what you said.

If you mean most of 20th century america, I guess the high taxes slowly led to the lower taxes and the greater social stratification of today? I guess it figures the old foggies like to complain even when they get what they wanted.