Aapl

Hard to say. You are going to see some return of capital in dividend form. But in terms of the growth potential I think it is out of steam at least for the time being.

The higher the price of a stock the harder it is to get that great return. If I were you I would consider eliminating some of my position in the stock. Look at it this way: Are you happy with the return less taxes if you were to cash out now? What if it fell to $500/share? Would you be upset if alternatively it rose to $650 and you cashed out at $595.

The shares haven't fallen this much since the market crash (down 14% over 6 weeks). There is definitely some internal conflicts uprising in the management ranks.

Bull Argument:

• Demand for Apple products still high
• Management isn't afraid to get rid of internal conflict regardless of seniority
• Apple has products at every price points and does a good job of upselling to more expensive product.
• iPhone 5 for China Mobile (665M subscribers)
• Apple TV?

Bear Argument:

• Increase competition from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Barnes & Noble
• Internal conflict resulting in the departure of 2 senior executives.
• Lower margins because of iPad Mini (vs iPad)
• iOS starting to feel dated and not so innovate compared to Android & Windows 8.
• Global economic recession affecting demand, currency exchange, etc.

You sell when everyone is buying and you buy when everyone is selling.

AAPL's short float is still under 2% with less than a day to cover which is freakishly complacent. I've been keeping an eye on it for months and it just won't budge even given the recent slide.

Keep in mind part of the "fiscal cliff" for 2013 is higher capital gains taxes esp on dividends which may be one clue as to why there's some scaling out, but truthfully I haven't looked at the inside action so I cannot say if insiders are selling.

As part of your "play" account you *should* be hedged on those long equities anyway IMHO.

I think aapl will soon settle into a price range (which in my opinion will be below 600$).. aapl grew at a ridiculous rate because their innovation was always 2 steps ahead of the competition.. However, the competition is now catching up and AAPL has nothing new to show.. Just take the iPad mini for example.. what innovation was involved in that product? They basically made a smaller replica of the iPad except with an inferior screen and processor ... The profit margins on the ipad mini are also a lot less than that of the iPad so they are in a way causing more harm to their profits (although the arguement can also be made that they are now more competitive with other companies that offer small tablet products).. The fact that AAPL is now offering a dividend is also another sign that they are running out of steam and want to offer investors another incentive to stick with their stock... Not much will change in their products over the next few years.. the iphone's cameras, dimensions etc will improve a little each time but i dont see anything groundbreaking in the near future..

I'm seeing a bullish price objective of ~$975.

Looks like this is a major fork in the road for the stock, no idea about the company and frankly don't care. No stock is immune to the forces of fear and greed, and by the short interest figures, there is extreme greed. The bears have all but given up. The top is in when everyone who thought its going to $1000 is locked and loaded and there are no shorts to buy back their shares.

I'm voting range-bound, flat, or down from here on out. I think ~$700 will be the apple top.

P/E is low, all things considered. Not a fan of their products but so many are and they are becoming a status symbol in emerging markets. There are also trends of their devices (IPads specifically) being used in the service and healthcare sector

I opened a small position last week below 600, hoping to ride a post-holiday wave to 700+ again. AAPL is tech and like all tech, it's long-term risky

Sweet heavens, the writing is on the wall, folks: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/201...y-silenced

To be fair, there's probably 10,000 hedge funds and that's 230 out of 700 sampled. But still, look at the numbers vs the others on the list.

Quote from barnz008 : Sweet heavens, the writing is on the wall, folks: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/201...y-silenced To be fair, there's probably 10,000 hedge funds and that's 230 out of 700 sampled. But still, look at the numbers vs the others on the list.

If we were talking about AMZN here, I'd see your point, but AAPL is trading cheap. What do you think is a reasonable valuation for it---- 1x cash?? :lol

I'm not an AAPL fanatic by any means, but on a pure valuation standpoint, it just doesn't make sense

Quote from rrc06 : If we were talking about AMZN here, I'd see your point, but AAPL is trading cheap. What do you think is a reasonable valuation for it---- 1x cash?? :lol

Don't know and I think it's irrelevant. Point is the stock just took a near 20% hit and the fund managers didn't even flinch. One day they will, then what happens?

Quote from barnz008 : Don't know and I think it's irrelevant. Point is the stock just took a near 20% hit and the fund managers didn't even flinch. One day they will, then what happens?

The value investors will swoop in at some point.

Quote from rrc06 : The value investors will swoop in at some point.

To try to catch a falling knife and turn and dump for a loss aiding in the waterfall decline? Sure, happens all the time. If there are no shorts to buy back their shares, the stock will vaporize.

The smart money and accumulation phase is over, now it's either blow off top mania which the P&F charts allude to or fall hard and fast. It's only going to grind sideways to the degree to which bulls can force the momentum. Doesn't matter if the company makes cool gadgets or tuna sandwiches; fear is fear, greed is greed.

Disclosure: I don't own the stock but I have more Apple/Mac products than I can count and would buy them in a heartbeat over the competition.

Quote from barnz008 : Disclosure: I don't own the stock but I have more Apple/Mac products than I can count and would buy them in a heartbeat over the competition.

And that, in a nutshell, is moat. And why I think AAPL will be ok in the short- to medium-term.