Aapl

Quote from barnz008 : I'm thinking if $500 doesn't hold just cause it's a round number, then $480 for a pause. I'm surprised at the relative ease of the slide, obviously the market makers don't want to frighten the children too badly, here. I think a good $50-$75 down day would help the stock in the long run. The daily volume has just been meh. If I'm going to be long, I want sheer panic and Joe Sixpack dumping before it's too late. What, Apple sells a lot of "must have" phones? Not a sane person in the world gives a rip when they're watching their IRA go red for the year and can't hold their breath anymore. Fundamentals, dumbdamentals - totally irrelevant. Obviously they ran the stops on Dell this AM including mine. Won't hesitate to get back in if the setup looks right.

I wonder what people are waiting for ..... they want AAPL to trade at 3x cash?

Quote from rrc06 : I wonder what people are waiting for ..... they want AAPL to trade at 3x cash?

This.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ch...ps-2012-11

Apple will not go on forever. Look at history. Tech companies only reign supreme for a short period of time. Roughly 10 years. Apple is long in the tooth. There are those that reinvent themselves for a second comeback. IBM is one. Apple is another. Can Apple do it again?

Personally, I think Apple can hold on for at least another year. Thus why I'm catching the knife. This quarter should be a blowout.

Quote from travfar : This. http://www.businessinsider.com/ch...ps-2012-11 Apple will not go on forever. Look at history. Tech companies only reign supreme for a short period of time. Roughly 10 years. Apple is long in the tooth. There are those that reinvent themselves for a second comeback. IBM is one. Apple is another. Can Apple do it again? Personally, I think Apple can hold on for at least another year. Thus why I'm catching the knife. This quarter should be a blowout.

Agreed. Outside of maybe IBM, i think tech is hard thing to invest in long-term. I am surprised Warren Buffett invested in intel. That's doing nothing but dying lately.

Speaking of AAPL, it was at 505, now back above 520. Yikes.

I am convinced I should have just bought more V and MA at 136 and 448 respectively a few weeks ago. They don't care about this market at all.

Quote from rrc06 : I am convinced I should have just bought more V and MA at 136 and 448 respectively a few weeks ago. They don't care about this market at all.

Being the idiot that I am, I sold my MA at $440 in September. Should have held on. Still have my V.

Quote from travfar : Being the idiot that I am, I sold my MA at $440 in September. Should have held on. Still have my V.

they are true secular growth stocks and are staying relevant in emerging markets and mobile payments. AAPL doesn't hold a candle to either of them IMO

Quote from rrc06 : they are true secular growth stocks and are staying relevant in emerging markets and mobile payments. AAPL doesn't hold a candle to either of them IMO

Absolutely. I sold MA thinking it would sell off then by back in. It's a bit volatile. Haven't had the chance. The world is going plastic. I see it all the time. Countries that were cash only 2-3 years ago are no into plastic. I see it in the supermarket all the time. Although they need to work on their checkout speed. It's a more complicated process in the third world. I don't know what they do but it's a lot more time than a quick swipe. There's a lot of receipt scribbling going on. The one thing they do all over the planet except in the US is that PINs are required for credit card use. None of this signature stuff. In fact when they hand me the PIN keyboard when I use my card and I say I don't have one. There's this sigh of exacerbation as they mutter "US card" and have to set up for a signature. I don't know why we don't use PINs here. It would seriously cut down on fraud.

Quote from rrc06 : Agreed. Outside of maybe IBM, i think tech is hard thing to invest in long-term. I am surprised Warren Buffett invested in intel. That's doing nothing but dying lately. Speaking of AAPL, it was at 505, now back above 520. Yikes. I am convinced I should have just bought more V and MA at 136 and 448 respectively a few weeks ago. They don't care about this market at all.

Quote from travfar : This. http://www.businessinsider.com/ch...ps-2012-11 Apple will not go on forever. Look at history. Tech companies only reign supreme for a short period of time. Roughly 10 years. Apple is long in the tooth. There are those that reinvent themselves for a second comeback. IBM is one. Apple is another. Can Apple do it again? Personally, I think Apple can hold on for at least another year. Thus why I'm catching the knife. This quarter should be a blowout.

seriously? some completely random 5-year correlation? there are so many things wrong with that 'analysis'. is f a tech stock? back in the day, the new fangled horseless carriages powered by demon smoke would have certainly been labeled new technology. now, they are just boring consumer products. a common fallacy committed by moron analysts is calling aapl a tech company. maybe in the eighties, but not now.

i'm not going to go through my analysis, but sufficed to say i bought on the way down, and would buy more now, if i had money. all stocks trade in a range. unless the economy colaspses, aapl will be back at all time highs within the year, probably 6 mos.

if you chart at all, today might be the bottom. it looks like it's forming a hammer/star reversal. the higher volume is a good sign as well. if only i had 20/20 hindsight. i should post aapl as a slick deal. it's absolutely a much better buy than some silly depreciating t.v.

i do have a question about aapl products, which i have never bought. when the iphone first came out, what were the things that made it so vastly superior than the other products at the time? everyone says aapl products aren't what they used to be, i'm curious as to what about the early products was so great.

Quote from VeganThug : if you chart at all, today might be the bottom. it looks like it's forming a hammer/star reversal. the higher volume is a good sign as well. if only i had 20/20 hindsight.

Looks like algo/HFT accumulation off that 505 on the minute chart.

We're at a volume hole right were it gapped up a few times and went parabolic earlier this year so naturally it acts as resistance because there's such little participation. You can see it on the Nasdaq, too. If the bears want a better price, they better bring it next week. A bull hammer candle with a long tail can be indicative of a reversal - and it can also be a nasty bull trap. I'm not going to get caught up in any of it, I'll say that.

Quote from barnz008 : Looks like algo/HFT accumulation off that 505 on the minute chart. We're at a volume hole right were it gapped up a few times and went parabolic earlier this year so naturally it acts as resistance because there's such little participation. You can see it on the Nasdaq, too. If the bears want a better price, they better bring it next week. A bull hammer candle with a long tail can be indicative of a reversal - and it can also be a nasty bull trap. I'm not going to get caught up in any of it, I'll say that.

algo/hft = algorithom/hedge fund trading? you sound more like a pure chart trader that doesn't care what the stock is or what the economy is doing. i look at a lot of things. aapl is unique in many ways. i don't know of one megacap stock that grows revenues at 20%. it's foward p/e is around 9. it's dividend is 2%. it's 100% debt free. the vix is under 20. the christmas bounce has yet to happen. it's a top 5 world brand. the stock is down 28% since it's highs. this is likely the biggest pullback since 2009. if it goes any lower, buffet will swoop in and buy some shares as a value play.

the shocking thing is that even at this low point, you would still be up 28% if you bought it at the beginning of the year. even if aapl goes the way of rimm and motorola (which might happen some day w/o jobs), it's not going to happen in the next 6 months. i guarantee* that aapl will hit 580 before the end of the year (10%). this would be well over a 100% apr. this is the closest thing to easy money that exists in the equities markets. thanks for helping me realize that i need to put more money in now.

* veganthug in no way guarantees anything whatsoever and will not be held liable for your trading loses; however, if the a guaranteed prediction does not come true, you are given permission to ridicule veganthug for a period not exceeding 3 mos.

Quote from VeganThug : algo/hft = algorithom/hedge fund trading? you sound more like a pure chart trader that doesn't care what the stock is or what the economy is doing.

I said nothing of hedge funds.

You understand HFT bots run over 70% of the market and if you trade enough, you can see the effects because it literally looks like programmed, like a computer is running it. Well guess what, it is. I should say "they," because they're all scalping pennies, trading back and forth to create "liquidity," stuffing bids, running stops, etc. It's actually great for trading, cause it keeps everything moving.

Once the bots stop accumulating, they dump and if they all trigger each other to "shut off" you get a waterfall acceleration dump. Happens all the time. If you think there are actual humans buying those AAPL shares, you haven't been paying attention. One second on a missed bid is literally an eternity in the market. It's like showing up late for work and being 999,999,997 minutes late.

You're right, I don't care what the stock is, where it's going and "what the economy is doing" is irrelevant. See above. The data is the data. Odds are odds. APPL has been cut in half a few times already and will be again, it's not a matter of "if." Only father time knows.

But for your sake, since you know the stock so well and are very confident of future direction based on the story you're creating for yourself, I hope it gaps up to $1000 Monday AM.

Quote from barnz008 : I said nothing of hedge funds. You understand HFT bots run over 70% of the market and if you trade enough, you can see the effects because it literally looks like programmed, like a computer is running it. Well guess what, it is. I should say "they," because they're all scalping pennies, trading back and forth to create "liquidity," stuffing bids, running stops, etc. It's actually great for trading, cause it keeps everything moving. Once the bots stop accumulating, they dump and if they all trigger each other to "shut off" you get a waterfall acceleration dump. Happens all the time. If you think there are actual humans buying those AAPL shares, you haven't been paying attention. One second on a missed bid is literally an eternity in the market. It's like showing up late for work and being 999,999,997 minutes late. You're right, I don't care what the stock is, where it's going and "what the economy is doing" is irrelevant. See above. The data is the data. Odds are odds. APPL has been cut in half a few times already and will be again, it's not a matter of "if." Only father time knows. But for your sake, since you know the stock so well and are very confident of future direction based on the story you're creating for yourself, I hope it gaps up to $1000 Monday AM.

thanks, but what i truly hope is that aapl goes bankrupt because they spend all their cash investing in the impoverished children of the world...if only. i don't know what an hft bot is so i was guessing that hft stood for hedge fund trading. i'm vaguely familiar with the automated trading and flash crashes. i do notice that my market orders end up being for $45.7896007808304, which is mildly annoying because i have to enter it in that way in my spreadsheet.

a lot of what you say is right. stocks, like life, boil down to probability. i'm more of a trendy swing trader, so i'm fine with holding onto a position for a while. i've learned a little about candlestick charting and such to assist me with timing, but i also factor in more subjective, subtle things like value, so when i miss the timing, i'm invested in a good stock at a good price.

yes, bots may run the day-trading show, but someone has to program the bots and set the terms of their trading. the macroscopic strongly affects the microscopic. i try to balance the two, plus to make money from hardcore charting, day-trading, you need enough bank to make the trading commisions irrelevant. i'm still small potatoes. although, i've observed candlestick charting enough to suspect that it's very possible to predict stock movements at a significantly greater probability than 50/50.

Quote from VeganThug : thanks, but what i truly hope is that aapl goes bankrupt because they spend all their cash investing in the impoverished children of the world...if only. i don't know what an hft bot is so i was guessing that hft stood for hedge fund trading. i'm vaguely familiar with the automated trading and flash crashes. i do notice that my market orders end up being for $45.7896007808304, which is mildly annoying because i have to enter it in that way in my spreadsheet. a lot of what you say is right. stocks, like life, boil down to probability. i'm more of a trendy swing trader, so i'm fine with holding onto a position for a while. i've learned a little about candlestick charting and such to assist me with timing, but i also factor in more subjective, subtle things like value, so when i miss the timing, i'm invested in a good stock at a good price. yes, bots may run the day-trading show, but someone has to program the bots and set the terms of their trading. the macroscopic strongly affects the microscopic. i try to balance the two, plus to make money from hardcore charting, day-trading, you need enough bank to make the trading commisions irrelevant. i'm still small potatoes. although, i've observed candlestick charting enough to suspect that it's very possible to predict stock movements at a significantly greater probability than 50/50.

Just like a farmer who's only as good at his/her crops, a trader is only as good as her/ her P/L. No farmer can predict the weather with any accuracy by studying maps just like no trader can predict the market with charts, but that's not the point. The point is to use the KNOWN data to make the most rewarding bet pay on a consistent basis. Loss is inevitable, risk is necessary and leverage is dependent on many factors.

The odds of a bounce here are very good because its a low volume shortened holiday week. The market will still try to shake out the wise guys who thought they nailed the "bottom" before the Santa rally. It's always nice ego boost to look in the rear view mirror and realize you did catch the knife just before it hit the floor with no blood loss, but it's extremely bad policy to believe you can do it because you "timed it just right."

As far as the algo's go, I've been stopped out on the penny and have missed order fills also by $.01. It sucks sometimes, but you can't get pissed at the pit boss when everyone else at the table is playing with all the same casino deck. They know this and program the bots to do exactly that to benefit the house. Point is to understand the rules and risk of playing not to try to "beat" the system.

Anyone think that friday was a bottom? $505 Friday, now $549

Quote from rrc06 : Anyone think that friday was a bottom? $505 Friday, now $549

you mean 558 now