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| 03-04-2013, 08:13 AM | |
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As for the statistics of when you should give up, you should have an approximately equivalent chance to win each time you play, assuming that the same number of people are entering alongside of you. Given those numbers, you are never "due for a win" or approaching a win. Specifically, if you use the historical data for past giveaways, which I've sampled from and compiled in a Google Doc over the last 1.5 months [google.com], you'll find that the average player has about a 0.01% chance of winning most giveaways. An average of 8,667 people play every day. If you assume that the pool of giveaway participants never changes from today onward, and you assume that the same player cannot win twice (these are both false assumptions), the average player would spend 23.24 years before being essentially guaranteed a win. I don't know about you, but I'm above average (at least, as far as # of entries goes). I really haven't done that much to even try to increase my entries count and I am carrying 119 entries per play. That almost doubles my chances above the average player. But even in that scenario, I would still be waiting for probably 13 years to get a guaranteed win (and I still have not won a SlickDeals giveaway, though I've won a couple of other giveaways on the internet as a whole). If you want to maximize your plays, make sure you're getting every entry point you can earn and play every day without failure. This is important because, even on days when there are two items available to win (Apple TV days), the absolute numbers look the same as the days when there is 1 available. This effectively doubles every participant's chances without even trying. If you want to maximize your value per time spent, entering giveaways that you are nearly guaranteed to not win has got to be around the bottom tier. If it takes you 20 seconds to complete all of the entry components including all of the click throughs, that would equate to a little more than 2 hours per year of work. If you make $20 per hour working a job, you'd have made $40 in that year. That's like winning a Roku 2 XS (on deal) per year for free that you otherwise wouldn't have had. Also, it's $40 that the giveaway won't win you, so quit complaining. The odds of that $40 are much better than the odds of any giveaway. So, put another way, if the cost of $40 of your free time per year isn't worth the odds of participating in the giveaways, you should probably quit playing right now. That way, you get your life back and I can maybe get another 0.000001% bump on my own odds. |
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Chill dude. I know the stats. I also know that people do win this stuff. That was just an attempt to be satirical. I am not complaining either. So pick your things up and move on. Looks like you have too much time on your hands, but I dont. Peace out.
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