Forum Thread

When is good time to get back in? Sold all my stock Monday before Labor day.

tennis4789 890 383 September 9, 2016 at 12:13 PM in Finance (4)
Deal
Score
0
1,904 Views

Thread Details

I bailed Monday before labor day. All the way out.

S&P is trading 25 pe. Average s&p pe is 15. US is pretty good target for free publicity for foreign attackers. Lots of anxiety around election.

Not sure what signal to use to get back in. couple?
**election over?
**Big correction (not sure what definition of big is)?
**2017?

28 Comments

1 2

Sign up for a Slickdeals account to remove this ad.

#2
Dunno.

Bailed June 30.

Waiting for it...
Reply Helpful Comment? 1 0
Quote from charles052 View Post :
You have blind faith whereas I do not.

Quote from skiman View Post :
I can't escape the mental picture. theblaze.com is very clearly some sort of information anus yet some posters seem eager to attach their lips and deliver the product here.
Joined Dec 2008
L10: Grand Master
6,006 Posts
1,944 Reputation
#3
When you find the stock market crystal ball, let us know.
Reply Helpful Comment? 5 0
"This whole.. I have XX company so my pee pee is 2" longer talk is hilarious. Who cares what company is cheapest, best, etc. Pick the company and plan you want and keep it to yourself."
Joined Feb 2014
L5: Journeyman
890 Posts
383 Reputation
Original Poster
#4
Quote from tennis8363 View Post :
When you find the stock market crystal ball, let us know.
Don't believe in market timing? I'm not too much into it, but just felt like too much downside risk right now. I do like looking at PE of markets.
Reply Helpful Comment? 0 0
Joined Dec 2008
L10: Grand Master
6,006 Posts
1,944 Reputation
#5
Quote from tennis4789 View Post :
Don't believe in market timing? I'm not too much into it, but just felt like too much downside risk right now. I do like looking at PE of markets.
Oh, I believe in it. I also believe (which is backed up by fact) that you will lose more often than not trying to time the market.
Reply Helpful Comment? 1 0
#6
Quote from tennis8363 View Post :
When you find the stock market crystal ball, let us know.
I was just coming to post this same exact thing, hahaha.
Reply Helpful Comment? 0 0
#7
Here's my take -- If there was sure money to be made by dumping equities now and waiting for a large correction, the big traders would have already done it, thus taking the profit margin out.

Basically, at a macro level I believe strongly in the efficient market hypothesis. The best mathematicians and the biggest computers in the world are working to squeeze every penny out of the market. I can either ride the tide with broad index funds, find specific companies or sectors that might be worth a risk, or try to find some return in small caps where the volume is too small for big guys. But I don't believe I can beat them at their own game. Everything I know about the market as a whole is either a hunch, in which case I'm just gambling, or it's already known by everyone else.

Do what you feel is right, but just consider that when you sold your portfolio it was purchased by someone else -- possibly someone far more sophisticated than any of us.
Reply Helpful Comment? 0 0
Joined Feb 2014
L5: Journeyman
890 Posts
383 Reputation
Original Poster
#8
Quote from dukeblue219 View Post :
Here's my take -- If there was sure money to be made by dumping equities now and waiting for a large correction, the big traders would have already done it, thus taking the profit margin out.

Basically, at a macro level I believe strongly in the efficient market hypothesis. The best mathematicians and the biggest computers in the world are working to squeeze every penny out of the market. I can either ride the tide with broad index funds, find specific companies or sectors that might be worth a risk, or try to find some return in small caps where the volume is too small for big guys. But I don't believe I can beat them at their own game. Everything I know about the market as a whole is either a hunch, in which case I'm just gambling, or it's already known by everyone else.

Do what you feel is right, but just consider that when you sold your portfolio it was purchased by someone else -- possibly someone far more sophisticated than any of us.
Aren't big traders kind of stuck? They have to be invested certain ways according to their prospectuses.

https://www.sec.gov/News/Speech/D...5171515808
------------------------------------------
Role Played by Institutional Investors
The topic of your conference recognizes the important role played by institutional investors and the great influence they exert in our capital markets. The role and influence of institutional investors has grown over time. For example, the proportion of U.S. public equities managed by institutions has risen steadily over the past six decades, from about 7 or 8% of market capitalization in 1950, to about 67 % in 2010.1 The shift has come as more American families participate in the capital markets through pooled-investment vehicles, such as mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs).2

Institutional investor ownership is an even more significant factor in the largest corporations: In 2009, institutional investors owned in the aggregate 73% of the outstanding equity in the 1,000 largest U.S. corporations.3
--------------------------------------
I don't know for sure but mutual fund managers don't have that much freedom. But if people start jumping out of the market....
---------------------------------------
http://money.usnews.com/money/blo...tual-funds
--------------------------------------
Managers must follow strict investing guidelines. Knowing that your fund manager can only invest in a particular type of stock helps you know what you are invested in, but it can also significantly hurt you if that particular asset class is in a downward trend. For example, if you invested in a technology fund in 1999, you probably did fairly well into early 2000s, but after that your fund probably lost a significant amount. By charter, objective, and prospectus, your fund's manager was required to invest most of the fund's assets in technology securities. Just keep in mind that it was not necessarily the fund manager's fault. He was just doing his job. He had no choice, and your fund had nowhere to go but down. According to the Investment Company Act of 1940, which provides rules for open-end mutual funds, those funds must invest at least 80 percent of their assets in the associated asset class.
--------------------------------------
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/...2016-01-12
---------------------------------------------
https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media...er497d.pdf

Some fear that the long-term advantages of the mutual fund as an
important innovation in portfolio management might carry a short-term
price. One reads of rising concerns that mutual funds are not simply
reorganizing the way we achieve our financial objectives, they are an
integral part of, and possibly a cause of, the recent explosion in common
stock prices--an explosion that might threaten to end in a market
collapse, perhaps endangering the long economic recovery we have
enjoyed since 1990. To the contrary, others conclude, the surge in mutual
fund investments arises from investors' increasing enthusiasm for longterm
assets, particularly equities. To the extent that mutual funds provide
a low-cost and efficient way of shifting portfolios between cash, bonds,
and equity, they are a part of the process but not a cause of exuberant
market performance
-----------------------------------------
If institutional investors control 70% and they have to invest according to their Prospectuses.....


-----------------------------------------
sorry got a little lengthy with my reply. I was researching topic and thought others' might enjoy info too.

Be interesting to see what stocks do today.
Reply Helpful Comment? 0 0

Sign up for a Slickdeals account to remove this ad.

#9
Every time I see someone ask a question like this I feel bad for them and the money they will likely be losing.
Reply Helpful Comment? 0 0
Joined Feb 2014
L5: Journeyman
890 Posts
383 Reputation
Original Poster
#10
Quote from jagojago View Post :
Every time I see someone ask a question like this I feel bad for them and the money they will likely be losing.
I'm not losing any money. I still have all my money.
Reply Helpful Comment? 0 1
#11
Quote from tennis4789 View Post :
I'm not losing any money. I still have all my money.
opportunity cost
Reply Helpful Comment? 2 0
#12
I would wait until after the election and the next rate hike. When both of events happen, people will be dramatic about it like always and it may just be the right time to go in when everyone is selling.

Me personally will likely sell the long term portion of my precious metal fund and put half into SPX and half into PHO ETF. Then I will ride the roller coaster hoping my SPXS growth will compensate all other losses so I can cash it out to start buying multiple foreclosures with cash to rent then flip for profit.

This is based on the assumption that the next major recession is around the corner. All the signs are there. And I am just waiting for the proper event to trigger it.
Reply Helpful Comment? 0 1
#13
Quote from teetee1 View Post :
I would wait until after the election and the next rate hike.
(clipped)
to start buying multiple foreclosures with cash to rent then flip for profit.
Waiting until there's a rising interest rate environment to start flipping houses is risky. Just like we've seen before, housing prices are propped up by nearly free mortgages. You may still be able to acquire foreclosures at a reasonable price, but trying to flip for profit will be hard as mortgage rates rise.
Quote :
This is based on the assumption that the next major recession is around the corner. All the signs are there. And I am just waiting for the proper event to trigger it.
Good luck to you. The next major recession is *always* just around the corner. What's the saying? That analysts on tv have predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions? It's fine to go in strong buying when others are selling. I totally agree with that. I just don't love the idea of dumping everything because you think that's coming up soon.
Reply Helpful Comment? 1 0
#14
Someone let me know a week before the market actually crashes. I would like to sell everything before then. Also let me know a week before the market hits the bottom so I can start buying.
Reply Helpful Comment? 1 0
Joined Feb 2014
L5: Journeyman
890 Posts
383 Reputation
Original Poster
#15
Quote from jagojago View Post :
Every time I see someone ask a question like this I feel bad for them and the money they will likely be losing.
This is more aimed at all the people that say ride the market.

Do you they look at anything that might convince them to sell?
or just do the ronco set it and forget it?

What would be something that could drive the market it up?
interest rate cut.
less unknowns when election is over?
Earnings come in higher than expected.
More demand for stock than supply?

1st time I've liquidated everything like this. I just can't see like the DJIA going to 20,000 vs. 16,000. I don't want to own these companies right now.

Side note. I would follow me around and bet the opposite way I do would be a very successful strategy!
Reply Helpful Comment? 1 1
Page 1 of 2
1 2
Join the Conversation
Add a Comment
 
Copyright 1999 - 2016. Slickdeals, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Copyright / Infringement Policy  •  Privacy Policy  •  Terms of Service  •  Acceptable Use Policy (Rules)  •  Interest-Based Ads
Link Copied to Clipboard