Is Apple a Strong Buy (Stock)?
 

I bought a share of Apple earlier last week for $462 and pulled out over the weekend before it took a major shit at $442 today. Do you think the stock will keep going down until their next big release or that it'll stop at some point? I want to buy cause I want it to hit $700 again lol. I have $2000 in the stock market. In the following:
DDD: 3D Systems
KKR: Investment company
SIRI: SiriusXM
KR: Kroger
ZAGG: Zagg
NWBO: Northwest Biotherapeutics
KERX: Keryx Biopharmaceuticals
GE: General Electric
KO: Coca Cola
TWO: Two Harbors Investment Corp (Buys houses, sells houses at higher price)
ONVO: Organovo (3D printing of organs)
What do you think?

I don't think your investing strategy is worth the stress it seems to be causing you.

If you think a $20 move on a $400 stock is a "major shit," you should have about $0 invested in the stock market. And AAPL will never hit $700 again cause you want it to. It will hit $70 first just to piss you off. ;)

Piggy bank. The only way a piggy bank takes a major shit is if you drop it on the floor.

A move of 4.5% is not a major anything. When you said you bought "A" share...do you actually mean 1 single share? I don't see the point in trading one share when the fees are going to run you, what $16 round trip.

Like previous posters are saying - not only the money in apple, but even the amount of money you have invested in the stock market its not really substantial enough to really make a dent. To be honest, your portfolio should be more consolidated. With 11 different stocks in a $2000 portfolio that's about $175 in each stock. That's not really even enough to make trading fees worth it. (Your value would need to appreciate about 10% for you to even come out even.) I'd suggest for future investments, either consolidating stock, or if you don't have more money to invest, throw it in a no-trading-fee mutual fund. This way you can easily match your risk:return ratio tolerance.

:iagree:

At 2K investment should really only be in one stock.

I read online that the more variety you have in your stocks, the better off you are. Stock took a shit from its $504 one day to $440 a week later....

Don't invest in Apple because it is the "cool" company. One share just to say you own it. Not a good strategy.

Why did you buy at 462? There is major support at 400-430, the good news for you is it will fill the gap at 500 before it sees 430. When it does, you need to sell. 500 would be a good place to short aapl though.

It will never see $700 again because the company is past it's prime. Steve Jobs was Apple. They are losing market share to other better phones and tablets and they have no innovation anymore.

You are right - diversity is very important. However, the fees you are paying outweigh any return on the stocks that you may see. For example, stock worth $200 and your trading fees are $16, you would need to see 8% growth just to break even. I still think that when trading in low amounts like that you should consolidate to pick one stock or put it in a mutual fund if you want to diversify your holdings (which is the reason you want to own a variety of stocks). A mutual fund will allow you to buy into a wide group of stocks (mitigate your risk) while still allowing you to still make a solid return. Obviously mutual funds have pros and cons (some have trading fees, various expense ratios etc) but for $2000 I'd go that route instead of burning all the money in trade fees.

There are no trading fees with Ameritrade (who I trade with). If you have $2000 or more in your Ameritrade account, they waive the commission fee ($10).

They seem to be having a good day today so far. I pulled out over the weekend. Maybe I'll buy again when, as you said, it reaches $400-$430. You don't think it'll reach $700 again? They're still capable of being innovative, with Ive as the Creative Executive of iOS.

Unless of course your stocks are all highly correlated in which now you just have one massive pile of risk.

what happens when your free trial runs out before you sell the stock you bought at $200? your stock is going to have to grow 5% just to break even.

:confused: Wha?

Just keep buying the stock when you think it will go up and sell it when it goes down. One day, you might get it right. If your goal is to "pick stocks" then thinking about it a lot is a great idea. If your goal is to buy and sell stocks and make money than thinking about it at all is total waste of time.

Just go with the commission-free ETFs that some of the brokerages are offering now.

Promotion lasts for 60 days.

Isn't the goal of investing to make money in the end?

Actions that lead to profit. Everyone's "goal" is to make money, but the market seems to have better ideas most of the time. Good luck.

All my stocks made a profit today. Went up nearly $40 in one day.

Did you sell and take that $40? It is not a profit until you sell. My accounts will fluctuate 1000's in a given day. What is your goal...just to play around in the market or are these actual investments. What will you do when you have to start paying trading fees. Don't forget you will be paying taxes on any profits you do end up taking.

If you are actually interested in investing you might want to find a strong company, maybe something with a dividend, put the money in there and let it grow instead of worrying about day to day fluctuations. You will need over 25,000 in your account if your goal is day trading.

I don't plan to day-trade. Long-term, for at least a year. I invested two weeks ago and a week ago. When I first bought, I took a $100 hit on $2000 which is slowly increasing. I haven't made a profit yet but I'll pull out when the time is right.

It's a comforting little story, we've all been there.

Try having a plan all written out before you buy next time? Remember the following statement when it comes to money management: failing to plan is planning to fail.

Better to earn money rather than just look at +/- on a sheet of paper. Unless, of course, your trading account is for entertainment purposes only.

Certainly not. Trading to learn about the market and to make $ in the end. Plan how?

Is Apple a Strong Buy (Stock)?

No! Duh!

http://www.p0stwh0res.com/images/captainobvious.jpg

Are you serious? You don't have a exit plan when you buy a stock? You just buy and expect it to go up and that's it? And it goes down, then what? You sell cause it didn't? I feel like this thread has gone Twilight Zone. :eek:

Losing money trading is a great way to learn about the market, that's for sure. You should be practicing with a paper account.

Do you know Apple's EPS, P/E ratio, Cash per Share, or are you just investing in it because its Apple?

Mainly because it's Apple. Analysts also say it's a strong buy but by the look of their stock price, I disagree...

Based on this, you shouldn't be investing in individual stocks. Put the 2k into a 401k or IRA or some fund and be done with it.

Unless you have the time, energy, and desire to actually research companies and stay on top of not only them but the industry they are in, and current events, then its a fools errand. You're no better off than a monkey picking stocks. In fact, maybe even worse, cause the evidence you use to make decisions is horribly flawed. Not to mention the dollar amounts you are talking about is practically nothing, and once your little trial is over, fees will eat you up.

Your not investing, your gambling.

Harsh, but truth.

I do do my research. I do an hour of research on MSN, Seeking Alpha, and others before I buy stock, while of course looking at charts.

Well, that should do it.

What? Not following you.

What he said +1000

This reply made me spray my beverage out my mouth in laughter....post of the day my friend

Play with options. Then you will either go to zero (likely anyways) or maybe double or triple your money. It's better than stressing over the 2-3% moves...

that's not really gonna help because nothing you find researching there gives you an idea about intrinsic value. IMO, SA & MSN news (and other financial news sources) are a result of confirmation bias. I think most of it is junk. you can get about 80% of the info you need about a stock by analyzing cash flows and balance sheet, which should take about 30 minutes. I wouldn't pay any attention to charts either. In my experience, obsessing with chart movement is worthless. of course, value is subjective (just look at analyst's estimates). Analyst's are biased towards the bullish or bearish side when it's convenient to do so. Most analysts screwed over RIM (BBRY) a half year ago, and now they praise the company. Here's the most important point about investing: Margin of Safety! The best value investors basically take the same approach when choosing price: conservative estimate * margin of safety.

Personally, I think Apple is a reasonable buy below ~$440. My growth estimates are really conservative though and my margin of safety is a bit higher because of sentiment.

buy something like "O" so you can collect a monthly dividend and let it reinvest into more shares.

The stock market is like going to Vegas. If a 5% downward move on a few thousand dollars causes you to worry, then it is not the place for you. Get into something more safe imo.

One could argue it really is not the place for any small investor. The game is rigged and the small investor really has no chance and it all comes down to timing and luck for them. You always hear how over the last x number of decades the market has outperformed other investments. While that is true, one can slice numbers anyway one wants and take a sample size favorable to one's argument pro or con. For ex, in the decade of the 2000s, the market was essentially flat...zero return. So if you started investing in the early 2000s, you essentially were outta luck and what the market did in the 90s and 80s really is irrelevant to you as it was a bad investment unless of course you tried to time it.

Therefore if you accept that it's a casino and you don't go to a casino to invest, then you cannot go to the stock market and not gamble. And if all you're doing is gambling you focus should be on the rules, the odds and money management. Then your time "researching" should be to place your bets at the price where you have the best odds of winning and least odds of losing. You know why there are no clocks in a casino, right?

Good call. Or something like JNJ WMT KO etc. Dividend-playing blue chips with re-investment.

Good idea! You can lose your whole investment at once and then you won't have to worry about those 2-3% moves anymore.

Anybody who spends time "researching" needs to realize how manipulated the market really is. Some of you from the sounds of it needs to do some research on how manipulated it really is. Furthermore, any "research" done for free on the internet is old news and worthless for use in investing.

Yeah, it's rigged. No clocks and they change the brightness of the lights to make it feel like it's always ~2pm.

Why no clocks?

Same reason they do not lay out the floor plan in a normal grid. They want you to not pay attention to the time\not be able to easily leave. They want to make you feel like it is mid-afternoon and you really have not been gambling for many hours because the longer you play, the more the odds will be in their favor and the more they will likely make off of you.

With the advent of cell phones, the lack of clocks really does not work much anymore because even people who did not wear watches likely carry a cell phone now. The contorted maze they make of the floor layout is effective though. It is nearly impossible to get your bearings in a casino.

Therefore if you accept that the market is a) rigged b) a "casino" then you have to realize that's exactly the danger of going there.

If no one showed up to trade stocks one day, the market would be closed. The casino boss knows that it's not people coming in that are winning that affects the bottom line, it's the sheer number of people gambling and a set percentage of losers that determines the odds.

Most gamblers in the stock market lose (98% according to some figures). Why? Cause they picked the wrong stock? No, they never understood the odds and just kept playing anyway. ;) The market makers don't want you to leave, they rely on you staying (holding), selling into fear and buying into frenzy. They hate it when you cash out and go home (which is what winners do).

Completely agree.

That's what I'll be doing ;)

You have got to be kidding me. You have $2000 and you plan to trade with it.... and it turn you decide to buy ONE share of Apple.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/...enius-meme.png

Sorry to be harsh, but you need at least $5,000 or heck even $10,000 to start investing. I did not start investing until I had $35k. You also need to do more than 1 hour of research. I day-trade and that requires at least 4-5 hours a day, but if you plan on holding, you should still be spending more time on research and not just buying APPL stock because its a cool brand, and that is coming from my, an apple fanboy....

Then when and why would AAPL be a "strong buy stock?"

You're not being harsh, you're just wrong. It absolutely makes it easier to put more capital to work and to lever, hedge, etc but by no means is there some established minium.

People who say that probably started initially with little and lost it all then made the stupid mistake of thinking it was because they didn't bring enough ammo to the game. If you're a sniper, one bullet is all you need. Point: PRACTICE WITH PAPER FIRST before you start with the live rounds.

We've already established that the OP will be gambling, so give him advice as a trader as to what he should be reading/researching to churn some dolla-dolla-billz, yo.

Bad advice.

I started investing when i was 11. I can track a $200 investment from that age up until i was around 25 where i turned that $200 into around $75,000.

There is no minimum to investing. If you have $2k now, why wait until you have $5-10k? If you think you see an opportunity, go for it, theres nothing to stop you adding to that investment over time.

I counted something like 11 stocks that the OP was looking to invest. Even at $5 per trade, that alone is $50 or 2.5% of his investment. I would recommend just dumping it all into one stock or into a mutual fund...

I was told about SPY which monitors the S&P 500 but it's $150, which is a turn off due to the price. Granted, I was thinking about buying a near-$500 stock....

There are a lot of opportunities, but none that I can give you that you can hold for a year. I usually buy shares of buy out candidates. Usually I can pick up shares for around $5-$10 a share, and the buyout is can be a 20%-50% premium of the closing price of the day prior to the news breaks, or around 50%-75% from the price I bought into it.


For example, CLWR. I picked up 5,000 shares at $1 in August, another 5k at $1.40 in September. It was bought out by Sprint for $3, but that was a complete bullshit offer. Dish just offered CLWR $3.30 and I expected it to sell for $5 a share... but $3 a share is still a decent profit. I sold most of my shares but still have couple thousand.

I use this same method to rise and repeat on many companies. My future bet is CIT. If it falls under $40, I will be scooping it up! :D

AA, AAPL, CLF, NYMT, ARR, BWP, NMM, DSX are some stocks I own.

I certainly wouldn't spread $2k between 11 stocks.

Are you a risky investor? When I look at a chart of something like AA, it's an immediate turn-off for me.
http://investing.money.msn.com/in...?symbol=AA

I try to spread my money. 20% risky individual stock picks, 10% options, 40% long term, 30% cash. Recently I made a ton of money on options because I was lucky so I am carrying cash. I tend to switch positions for quick gains also another reason I have a lot of cash on hand.

(I am young so you can say I am a risky investor)

Buying 4 shares of AAPL at $461 and patiently selling at 10% higher ($507), nets one an additional $200 for that year/month/week/day.
Leave emotions out of it, base investments on your research.

401k are a worse gamble, allowing Hedge fund manager complete control over your money and passing on all the risk to you, with their ability to increase fees at will over the next 40 years of your life...

So you suggest I go with two or three stocks with the $2000? Also, I confirmed with Ameritrade that after the 60 days is up, it's $10 to buy or sell any stock.

The hardest lesson you'll probably learn is position size and money management. Anyone can just go buy some stocks.

http://oak.ucc.nau.edu/del/stockcalcs/sizer.aspx

So, since I have 11 stocks, should I cut some short and sell out before my 60 day trial is up? Then reinvest that money into more shares of a couple stocks?

Correct

No. You factor commissions into your trades.

Do you want to go about this in a safe, logical manner?

Yeah, but trading is risky. How can it be safe?

One more effort to get your head square: you do or do not agree that this is casino gambling with casino risks and casino rules? You just said "that's what I'll be doing." You need to define where you stand before you play.

Similar, yes.

He is not paying any fees until after the 60 days...that is why he needs to get into 1 or 2 stocks before the trading fees eat him when trying to trade 11 stocks with 2k.

The only stock I've decided to eliminate so far was Zagg, by the end of February (after they release their earnings report). Ford a good buy?

If you're buying well-known companies, I would buy ones that have been traded down due to missed earnings or just beaten down in general, like BBRY, CLF, or COH. You're not gonna find the perfect bottom, but at least you're eliminating risk of overoptimism with these companies. Coach is around a conservative fair value, so people might wait for a 5-10% drop. I wouldn't mind buying now though for long-term. Using Graham's valuation method for cyclicals, I get CLF fair value around $38-$40, so the current price is at a good discount.

So you want to bet on an earnings report. interesting.

Obligatory:
http://i.imgur.com/MYeIdZI.jpg

COH has seemed cheap in many months over the past 1-2 years, but it's been obvious lately that they are getting their @$$es handed to them by the competition, namely KORS.

There was an article on it too. Gorilla Glass 3 (which is coming out very VERY soon) will destroy Zagg. It will be stronger than Zagg's strongest protectors, thus, probably destroying their stock.

Competition hasn't stopped Coach from continuing to outperform the rest in the past. It's always been a part of the environment. I'm looking at their long-term strategy - expansion, shareholder friendliness, and continuous consumer feedback. Just because KORS has huge growth right now isn't influencing consumers to stop buying Coach products. Their financial position is incredibly solid, just look at the balance sheet. Plus, if many traders have your opinion, then it could already be priced into the stock. You can get good value in a company while opinions are negative.

I don't have any transportation or oil stocks. Might buy into them too. MPC & as stated above, COH or KORS.

So why in the world would you hold onto their stock after they release earnings?

Since they probably still have good earnings from Q4.

They aren't just reporting earnings they also report guidance. If their guidance is negative going forward the stock will drop. Earnings are not the end all be all.

You only have 2k to play with...you don't need to add more stocks, you need less. Find 1 or 2 companies that you want to invest in longer term and work on saving more money to invest.

Sell one of my worse stocks, add two, same investment with greater gains in the end?

I've done it before and it can be highly profitable. Of course, if you don't know what you're doing, then you'll probably get killed. Did it twice on CARB on their most recent and previous earnings moves. Knew nothing about the company nor anything about expectations; only price.

A set-up is a set-up and you're either in or you're out. It's mechanical and boring as hell...as it should be. If you get excited about your winners and depressed about your losers, there's always reality TV.

Low P/E is best right?

Ummm no, how many times and different ways do people need to explain this to you? Sell all of them AND ONLY KEEP ONE OR TWO. Once the trading fees kick in you will not be able to keep trading if each stock has to go up 10 percent to cover your fees. You should not be spread across so many companies with a 2k bank roll. Put it in an index fund and focus your energy on saving more to increase your investment dollars.

You can't quantify a stock's value based on one number. P/E will also vary across industries.

The correct answer is that it's irrelevant if you're gambling. If you're in the market and own stocks, you're gambling.

Ouch....
http://gyazo.com/01e3f5fd2687def9...42c2d871f3

Just a guess, but if that drops below 10% you'll start selling. Good lesson in trying to "pick good stocks" in the vein of the scam artists like Jim Cramer et al.

Put $2000 in, I'm at $1934 now. I was $1.25 away from breaking even a couple days ago. I don't want to sell till they go back up lol. I don't watch Mad Money btw.

this is why it's better to invest in an index fund or a value fund like BRK-B or Fairfax rather than buying stocks randomly

Without a plan in place before you actually buy, you'll sell for a loss every time. Seriously, how many times does it take before you learn?

The Cramer comment was to point out that no one can pick stocks because that should never be the goal in the first place. Therefore, it's a scam that "XYZ" is a "good buy." The market doesn't work that way.

I'm out.