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A Major Airline Will ‘Most Likely’ Go Out Of Business...

1,659 95 May 12, 2020 at 07:48 AM
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Boeing CEO Warns A Major Airline Will 'Most Likely' Go Out Of Business This Year Because Of Coronavirus.

We know airlines are piling up a massive amount of debt as time goes by. AA is the worst positioned. But will the government let them fold? Which airline do you think will go under (if any)?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/isab...f899aa2b4b
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#2
Government won't let them go bankrupt. They are purposely trying to seem desperate to get that free $. American will likely be taken over by a government equity stake unless they can get a corporate bond bailout. Secured bonds for their jets? Like what carnival did. I don't follow airlines that closely. Even during the bull market they've been underperforming imo
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Spirit has 18 months of cash on hand so they will survive. they are good to go, if you got $5k to invest, they are down 300% from precovid days, easy way to turn that $5k to $20k, just time your buy right (buy on a down day). My opinion, dont blame me if you invest and it tanks ������
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Last edited by scrapplejoe May 30, 2020 at 10:08 PM.
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#4
May be the voice in the wilderness but for the sake of the world environment (and therefore our long term survival), it might be a good thing if some airlines went away and the few, stronger survivors raised prices. I am not advocating oligopoly but the world is/was suffocating under the weight of over-tourism, to which cheap fares have been a major contributor.

Yes I like traveling for cheap too. But anyone who's taken a budget (or even not-so-budget) vacation to Europe or other places lately knows there's too. much. tourism. Even though we go off-season as much as possible, many places are still way too crowded, to the point where we were rethinking our longer-term travel planning in our pending retirement even before COVID.

Sorry for appearing to go off-topic but I think the points are related. Let's try to make Darwinism apply to the travel industry as well. With business travel already down even pre-COVID (and hopefully even further down post-COVID, if that day ever comes), do we need that many airlines except to generate cheap seats?
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#5
Quote from kacki
:
May be the voice in the wilderness but for the sake of the world environment (and therefore our long term survival), it might be a good thing if some airlines went away and the few, stronger survivors raised prices. I am not advocating oligopoly but the world is/was suffocating under the weight of over-tourism, to which cheap fares have been a major contributor.

Yes I like traveling for cheap too. But anyone who's taken a budget (or even not-so-budget) vacation to Europe or other places lately knows there's too. much. tourism. Even though we go off-season as much as possible, many places are still way too crowded, to the point where we were rethinking our longer-term travel planning in our pending retirement even before COVID.

Sorry for appearing to go off-topic but I think the points are related. Let's try to make Darwinism apply to the travel industry as well. With business travel already down even pre-COVID (and hopefully even further down post-COVID, if that day ever comes), do we need that many airlines except to generate cheap seats?
Yeah I would say its pretty off-topic considering its a travel forum and you are advocating for people to do less traveling!
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#6
Quote from PaulW9311
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Yeah I would say its pretty off-topic considering its a travel forum and you are advocating for people to do less traveling!
Travel forum? Shocking
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I like what she said, not what it means.
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Quote from Iaaaiws
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Travel forum? Shocking
LOL- Just this morning it said "Finance" at the top!
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#8
Quote from kacki
:
May be the voice in the wilderness but for the sake of the world environment (and therefore our long term survival), it might be a good thing if some airlines went away and the few, stronger survivors raised prices. I am not advocating oligopoly but the world is/was suffocating under the weight of over-tourism, to which cheap fares have been a major contributor.

Yes I like traveling for cheap too. But anyone who's taken a budget (or even not-so-budget) vacation to Europe or other places lately knows there's too. much. tourism. Even though we go off-season as much as possible, many places are still way too crowded, to the point where we were rethinking our longer-term travel planning in our pending retirement even before COVID.

Sorry for appearing to go off-topic but I think the points are related. Let's try to make Darwinism apply to the travel industry as well. With business travel already down even pre-COVID (and hopefully even further down post-COVID, if that day ever comes), do we need that many airlines except to generate cheap seats?
This would be more of a consolidation as a company gets caught with its pants down cash flow-wise. In the short term yet it's a capacity reduction but in the long term no.

You also forget that tourism is the main contributor to GDP in many countries.

Cancun Entices Tourists With Discounts, Free Hotel Nights [travelpulse.com]
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#9
Quote from Dr. J
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This would be more of a consolidation as a company gets caught with its pants down cash flow-wise. In the short term yet it's a capacity reduction but in the long term no.

You also forget that tourism is the main contributor to GDP in many countries.

Cancun Entices Tourists With Discounts, Free Hotel Nights [travelpulse.com]
Didn't forget. The macro view posits that it wasn't always so and doesn't always have to be that way. For nearly anything.
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#10
Invested into all the major US airlines and Boeing during the big dip in March, we'll see how that works out. I'm not about investing into the low-cost carriers like Spirit.
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#11
Quote from kacki
:
May be the voice in the wilderness but for the sake of the world environment (and therefore our long term survival), it might be a good thing if some airlines went away and the few, stronger survivors raised prices. I am not advocating oligopoly but the world is/was suffocating under the weight of over-tourism, to which cheap fares have been a major contributor.

Yes I like traveling for cheap too. But anyone who's taken a budget (or even not-so-budget) vacation to Europe or other places lately knows there's too. much. tourism. Even though we go off-season as much as possible, many places are still way too crowded, to the point where we were rethinking our longer-term travel planning in our pending retirement even before COVID.

Sorry for appearing to go off-topic but I think the points are related. Let's try to make Darwinism apply to the travel industry as well. With business travel already down even pre-COVID (and hopefully even further down post-COVID, if that day ever comes), do we need that many airlines except to generate cheap seats?
If you don't apply this to Asia, then it does nothing. We are just a drop in the bucket compared to 1.4 billion people that all want a Western lifestyle.
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#12
Quote from BrianT1548
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If you don't apply this to Asia, then it does nothing. We are just a drop in the bucket compared to 1.4 billion people that all want a Western lifestyle.
Nice thing about economic forces is they are color-blind. I'm assuming similar issues exist elsewhere.
OT: Can "we" blame them for wanting a Western Lifestyle? (and actually it's probably twice the 1.4Bn if you count India and other, smaller countries). We sold it to them for decades (movies, etc) then, when they can finally afford it (ironically, due to earnings from selling trinkets to the West), we say "too much!". Don't want to make this a discussion/argument but we need world views here, folks.
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#13
Quote from DangerQuail
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Government won't let them go bankrupt. They are purposely trying to seem desperate to get that free $. American will likely be taken over by a government equity stake unless they can get a corporate bond bailout. Secured bonds for their jets? Like what carnival did. I don't follow airlines that closely. Even during the bull market they've been underperforming imo
Government will run out of $$ too. You can't keep borrowing and borrowing decade after decade without consequences. Just wait...
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Welcome to the New World Order. Expect no mercy.
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