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US I Series Savings Bond from Treasurydirect up to $10K currently 3.54%

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Sounds like this deal, though limited to $10k/yr, presents a superior opportunity for expected return compared to many other investments available now.

What do you financial experts think?

This looks like it could be a wise diversification for many young people currently invested in equities, to move a little money and lock in some profits while protecting their financial future from inflation and other risks.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/in...ibonds.htm
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Created 07-15-2021 at 05:37 AM by mikeyeastside
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#2
Quote from mikeyeastside :
Sounds like this deal, though limited to $10k/yr, presents a superior opportunity for expected return compared to many other investments available now.

What do you financial experts think?

This looks like it could be a wise diversification for many young people currently invested in equities, to move a little money and lock in some profits while protecting their financial future from inflation and other risks.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/in...ibonds.htm
So you'll only be losing 1.46% of purchasing power. Slick
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#3
Quote from haserfauld :
So you'll only be losing 1.46% of purchasing power. Slick
How do you figure that? Seems you are not envisioning the dynamic the same way I see this going down. I expect at least a short/medium term opportunity here for outperformance due to the dynamic of short term increasing price indexes supporting higher rates.
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Last edited by mikeyeastside July 15, 2021 at 05:54 AM.
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#4
It's an I bond, which pays an interest rate that's a function of the inflation rate. Right now, inflation is higher than it's been for the past several years, so the inflation part of the I bond's interest rate is the whole 3.54% (APR); the fixed rate part of it is zero.

The upside of investing $10k in these bonds is that your $10k will definitely increase with inflation -- there's no way you'll lose purchasing power. The downside is that there's no way you'll gain purchasing power, either. You're basically locking in a real interest rate of zero.

Mind you, that's if when you sell the bond, you use the money to pay for college and so avoid paying income tax on the interest. If you don't do that, you'll pay federal income tax on the interest.
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#5
For those who are unfamiliar with I-bonds, there are a few rules to them:
You cannot redeem them in the first 12 months
If you redeem them after year 1, but before year 5, there is a penalty equal to the last 3 months of interest.

Although the current rate is 3.54%, I-bonds have a rate that changes every 6 months. The current Fixed Rate (which is set for the life of the bond) is 0%. For the past decade, the fixed rate has been low-to-non-existent, but in the past it has been as high as 3%. If you hold one of those bonds, your current composite rate would be earning close to 7% interest! If possible, I prefer to "get in" to I-bonds when the fixed rate is more palatable.

Also note, you get the interest for the whole month even if you buy on the last day of the month! If you wait until the end of October, you can have an idea of if you would rather have the upcoming interest combination set or if you want the current set (although I don't think they reveal the fixed rate until the window opens).
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#6
For those with bigger portfolios: VIPSX
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#7
I've been investing in i-bonds for many years. Just put in $20k last month between my wife and myself.

We park some of our emergency fund money in these, so it's much better than earning 0.4% at a savings acct. A few things to keep in mind:

- the interest rate changes every 6 months (tied to inflation)
- You need to keep it at least 1 year, and after that, there is a 3 month interest penalty if you cash out in less than 5 yrs. However, even with the penalty, it still has a much higher interest rate than a savings acct.
- It's a Government website so the interface is like 20 years old.

Overall though, it's a very solid offering for a part of your cash reserves.
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#8
Don't forget SD cashback! laugh out loud
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#9
Quote from SonofZeus :
For those with bigger portfolios: VIPSX
+1 on this - moved assets into VIPSX a while ago in anticipation of a higher inflation.
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#10
Quote from NobodyImportant :
It's an I bond, which pays an interest rate that's a function of the inflation rate. Right now, inflation is higher than it's been for the past several years, so the inflation part of the I bond's interest rate is the whole 3.54% (APR); the fixed rate part of it is zero.

The upside of investing $10k in these bonds is that your $10k will definitely increase with inflation -- there's no way you'll lose purchasing power. The downside is that there's no way you'll gain purchasing power, either. You're basically locking in a real interest rate of zero.

Mind you, that's if when you sell the bond, you use the money to pay for college and so avoid paying income tax on the interest. If you don't do that, you'll pay federal income tax on the interest.
Thanks for sharing that. One part I may have a different view on, "The downside is that there's no way you'll gain purchasing power." I understand that's the simplified theory, but that assumes inflation is real and persistent. If we assume inflation is sort of fake and transient, rates will have spiked and provided additional return for some time, potentially accumulating more value in these bonds than in prices.
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#11
Quote from mikeyeastside :
Thanks for sharing that. One part I may have a different view on, "The downside is that there's no way you'll gain purchasing power." I understand that's the simplified theory, but that assumes inflation is real and persistent. If we assume inflation is sort of fake and transient, rates will have spiked and provided additional return for some time, potentially accumulating more value in these bonds than in prices.
The interest rate resets every 6 months. If inflation is transient, the interest rate on these bonds will adjust downward to offset this. You're right if you're thinking about inflation being transient within a 6 month period, but if you're thinking about longer term gains, the reset will make that go away. And of course inflation could also increase within a 6 month period, and depending on timing you could be locked in to a low rate for that 6 months.

Mind you, none of this is a strong argument against these bonds. If you're looking to invest in Treasuries, it's hard to do better than these at the moment.
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#12
Quote from SonofZeus :
For those with bigger portfolios: VIPSX
serious question - is it better to buy vanguard ETFs or through a Vanguard account - is there any benefit one way or the other (assuming using a brokerage like TD where there are no fees). Thanks.
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#13
Is buying on secondary markets (eg VIPSX) riskier than direct from the treasury?
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#14
VIPSX returns
1-Year 6.56%
3-Year 6.54%
5-Year 4.26%
10-Year 3.18%
Worst year was -8.92% in 2013
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#15
Since May you are 2 months late!
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