Joined Dec 2007
L6: Expert
Forum Thread
ticking time bomb for cryptos
January 16, 2021 at
09:57 AM
Thread Details
Last Edited by Kouskous44 January 18, 2021 at 08:19 AM
Thoughts on this article?
I understand a lot of pro-crypto have their biases especially due to their exposures. however having experienced the housing crisis/gfc in 2007, I understand the unwinding of CDOs, CMOs, synthetics, etc. and when the liquidity dried up. The only reason the global economy didn't collapse was due to Central banks stepping in and injecting/providing liquidity. I wonder if this would happen for decentralized cryptos and have my doubts.
A lot of noise is being made about bitcoin running up to 100k+, but I think everyone thinks its a party until the music stops and exchanges run out of fiat or become insolvent with the demise of tether. I never realized the float was that large and think this is a huge black swan event.
I don't think its a crypto "killer" and see value in blockchain tech, but the collapse can cause a massive price shock and am concerned for those that are levered using money out of their retirement accounts or taking loans against their homes. Sure there is a possibility it may go on for a few more days or even years, and people in the ecosystem may say ill pull the money out before.... many said the same with other investments also before other collapses and were not able to do so.
Crashes happen when people least expect it.
https://crypto-anonymous-2021.med...dcf7
I understand a lot of pro-crypto have their biases especially due to their exposures. however having experienced the housing crisis/gfc in 2007, I understand the unwinding of CDOs, CMOs, synthetics, etc. and when the liquidity dried up. The only reason the global economy didn't collapse was due to Central banks stepping in and injecting/providing liquidity. I wonder if this would happen for decentralized cryptos and have my doubts.
A lot of noise is being made about bitcoin running up to 100k+, but I think everyone thinks its a party until the music stops and exchanges run out of fiat or become insolvent with the demise of tether. I never realized the float was that large and think this is a huge black swan event.
I don't think its a crypto "killer" and see value in blockchain tech, but the collapse can cause a massive price shock and am concerned for those that are levered using money out of their retirement accounts or taking loans against their homes. Sure there is a possibility it may go on for a few more days or even years, and people in the ecosystem may say ill pull the money out before.... many said the same with other investments also before other collapses and were not able to do so.
Crashes happen when people least expect it.
https://crypto-anonymous-2021.med...dcf7
71 Comments
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Tether is literally Fud.
So why 60k? Why not 100k, or 5k? You have no evidence to back up your claim.
You could state any related event and say it will go up, but conveniently leave out any risks that could cause it to go down (e.g. risk off situation in stock market will cause correlation with crypto, e.g. March 2020).
Again you say tether is fud, but can't show any proof. You've stated this several times now without proof.
Please stop shilling.
If you have something constructive and fundamental to back up your target or thoughts that would be appreciated.
You could state any related event and say it will go up, but conveniently leave out any risks that could cause it to go down (e.g. risk off situation in stock market will cause correlation with crypto, e.g. March 2020).
Again you say tether is fud, but can't show any proof. You've stated this several times now without proof.
Please stop shilling.
If you have something constructive and fundamental to back up your target or thoughts that would be appreciated.
Typically, after a 30% retracement, bitcoin goes a little over 100% for its next run. That's why the number.
Again you forgot the looming risks.
A typical crash retraces 80%+.
A risk off environment you'll see a 50%+ retracement.
With a tether blowup (focus of this post) it could retrace quite significantly also.
A typical crash retraces 80%+.
A risk off environment you'll see a 50%+ retracement.
With a tether blowup (focus of this post) it could retrace quite significantly also.
Zoom out. You either know it's the future or you don't and you are treating it like a stock for trades. I'm in.
Could be said about most things if you zoomed out and make the timeframe long enough. Most people don't have the patience to wait for years.
Zoom out on what happened during the housing market crash in 2008 and can say the same.
Wish you the best. Hope you dont learn the hard way.
Zoom out on what happened during the housing market crash in 2008 and can say the same.
Wish you the best. Hope you dont learn the hard way.
Been in since 2015. It's all good.
All good till a fat tail risk event. Just like junk mortgage investing was good for years till 2008.
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While I agree with fiat devaluation, I also know what bubbles and black swan are.
It's fine. You can learn the hard way.
It's fine. You can learn the hard way.
Right now, there is no room for the FRB's to maneuver. They are at the brink. From here, they print..Period. They have no other recourse. They print, they buy, the governments operate at a deficit and borrow, printing more.
Try this [amazon.com]. The difference this time, is that every currency on earth is in the same position. Except one. The money from Tesla was a drop in the bucket, so why the extreme move? Because other companies are coming. Still a drop in the bucket.
The real prize is the bond market. Where do the bondholders go when interest rates pick up this year? They don't stay in bonds. They won't be looking to equities at extreme PE's. They will turn to the one thing that has an endless appetite for funds. When that happens - and it most certainly will - having bought bitcoin at $50k will make you look like a genius to all your friends. We will see six digits this year. If this is a supercycle, which I think it is shaping up to be, I don't know what the top for bitcoin is but it is nowhere near today's price of $47k.
If shorting MSTR was attractive at $550, it should be TWICE as attractive now. ( I did trim 25% there as it is being treated like a derivative for some reason).
Right now, there is no room for the FRB's to maneuver. They are at the brink. From here, they print..Period. They have no other recourse. They print, they buy, the governments operate at a deficit and borrow, printing more.
Try this [amazon.com]. The difference this time, is that every currency on earth is in the same position. Except one. The money from Tesla was a drop in the bucket, so why the extreme move? Because other companies are coming. Still a drop in the bucket.
The real prize is the bond market. Where do the bondholders go when interest rates pick up this year? They don't stay in bonds. They won't be looking to equities at extreme PE's. They will turn to the one thing that has an endless appetite for funds. When that happens - and it most certainly will - having bought bitcoin at $50k will make you look like a genius to all your friends. We will see six digits this year. If this is a supercycle, which I think it is shaping up to be, I don't know what the top for bitcoin is but it is nowhere near today's price of $47k.
If shorting MSTR was attractive at $550, it should be TWICE as attractive now. ( I did trim 25% there as it is being treated like a derivative for some reason).
Sure was quiet from you when it was down till now. Fyi 90% crash from here is 4.7k.
crypto won't fit the profile for bonds. many use bonds for liability and stability rrquirements, and crypto won't fit that bill. but I can see some corps following the train for a partial cash reserve.
While the tesla boost was unexpected it is a supporting case towards crypto and your risky bet paid off. glad you were smart to trim 25%. good move.
But doesn't get rid of the black swan risk and in due time it will happen, and could have easily went the other way.
I'll certainly make sure to let you know when it does. 😉
Right now, there is no room for the FRB's to maneuver. They are at the brink. From here, they print..Period. They have no other recourse. They print, they buy, the governments operate at a deficit and borrow, printing more.
Try this [amazon.com]. The difference this time, is that every currency on earth is in the same position. Except one. The money from Tesla was a drop in the bucket, so why the extreme move? Because other companies are coming. Still a drop in the bucket.
The real prize is the bond market. Where do the bondholders go when interest rates pick up this year? They don't stay in bonds. They won't be looking to equities at extreme PE's. They will turn to the one thing that has an endless appetite for funds. When that happens - and it most certainly will - having bought bitcoin at $50k will make you look like a genius to all your friends. We will see six digits this year. If this is a supercycle, which I think it is shaping up to be, I don't know what the top for bitcoin is but it is nowhere near today's price of $47k.
If shorting MSTR was attractive at $550, it should be TWICE as attractive now. ( I did trim 25% there as it is being treated like a derivative for some reason).
Mstr would have been a great short. From 1300 down to 695. 😉
Feel bad for those who bough into crypto at prices above the recent drop. And unfortunately the crypto shillers need lqte buyers to keep the pump up.
Like I said lots of risk with large drawdowns.
Feel bad for those who bough into crypto at prices above the recent drop. And unfortunately the crypto shillers need lqte buyers to keep the pump up.
Like I said lots of risk with large drawdowns.
$44k should be the bitcoin bottom for now it might hit $40k on a super spike down, but that would be very brief...from here, $65k is the next range to target.
My price target for this year is $200k
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$44k should be the bitcoin bottom for now it might hit $40k on a super spike down, but that would be very brief...from here, $65k is the next range to target.
My price target for this year is $200k
Love it how people come out positive on a high risk/reward trade. If so, congratulations as you are on of the few fortunate ones to cash out on a gain.👍
But as a zero sum game, there were a lot of people who also lost a fortune as a counterparty to your trade.
I hope it does go up to 200k, but for others who are new to this, there will be a time when there is a 90% drawdown in crypto. And a majority wont see it coming so be aware of the risks. Most of ct didnt see this drawdown coming either.