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expired Posted by ExtremeOak • Mar 18, 2021
expired Posted by ExtremeOak • Mar 18, 2021

Select LA/SF Dealers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15k Fuel Card

after Tax Credits & Incentives (Select Locations)

$23,100

$52,408

55% off
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Deal Details
Select Eligible Toyota Dealers [Dealer Locator] located in Los Angeles / San Francisco, California are offering to Qualifying Customers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15,000 in Complimentary Fuel for 2yrs with 0% APR for 72-Months for as low as $23,108 after Incentives and Tax Credits. Pricing and availability may vary depending on your location, consult your local eligible dealership for more information.
  • Note: Offer is valid at select participating Los Angeles / San Francisco, California locations only. Refer to the forum thread for additional deal details and discussion.
Thank to community member ExtremeOak for and reddit user XIIXOO for finding this deal.

Deal Details:
  1. Visit your local eligible Toyota Norcal Dealer [Dealer Locator]
  2. Shop for a eligible 2021 Toyota Mirai model that qualifies for the TFS Cash offer and Fuel Card offer mentioned on the page here
    • Note: Qualified buyers can finance a new 2021 Mirai at 0% APR for 72 Months.
  3. Apply for and purchase a qualifying model with prices starting from ~$50,408 (may vary by location)
  4. Toyota Cash Discount will deduct $20,000 from your total
  5. You will receive a $4,500 CA Tax Credit (more info)
  6. You will receive a $8,000 Federal Tax Credit (more info)
  7. You will also receive a Complimentary Fuel Card valid for up to 2 years or $15,000 of fuel (more info)
  8. Your total after incentives and tax credits will be as low as $23,108 and will vary depending on your location and model selection.
Additional Details:

Editor's Notes

Written by SaltyOne | Staff
  • We put this up due to popularity and the great discussion from our members in the comments that really highlights the spirit of the community. As a deal editing team we recognize the limited availability of this offer however
  • About this Deal:
    • Offer include a no cost maintenance plan with the purchase or lease of every new Toyota for 3 years or 35,000 miles, whichever comes first. 24-hour roadside assistance is also included for 3 years and unlimited miles
    • Terms:
      • 0% APR for 72 monthly payments of $13.89 for every $1,000 financed. Terms available on approved credit For only very well qualified customers/lessees through participating Toyota dealers and Toyota Financial Services (TFS). Cash offer must be applied toward required down payment amount or percentage. No down payment required if qualified for advertised offer. If you do not qualify for the offer, the amount and percentage of any down payment vary with your credit qualifications. There is no cash back option. Dealer contribution may vary and could affect price. Individual dealer prices, other terms and offers may vary. Must take retail delivery from dealer's stock and terms subject to vehicle availability. Cannot be combined with TFS Lease Cash, Customer Cash, Lease, Lease Subvention Cash. See your participating Toyota dealer for details. Offer available in CA regardless of buyer's residency; void where prohibited. Expires 03-31-2021. Toyota Financial Services is a service mark used by Toyota Motor Credit Corporation.
      • Customers who lease a 2021 Mirai will receive complimentary fuel for three years or $15,000, whichever comes first. Customers who purchase or finance a 2021 Mirai through June 30, 2021 receive an additional three years to use the $15,000 of fuel. Complimentary fuel term begins as of card activation or 90 days after the Mirai lease or purchase commencement date, whichever is earlier. Fuel card is nontransferable. The Mirai is a hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicle that must be fueled at hydrogen stations conforming to the standards. See https://cafcp.org/stationmap for current hydrogen fueling station locations.

Original Post

Written by ExtremeOak
Community Notes
About the Poster
Deal Details
Community Notes
About the Poster
Select Eligible Toyota Dealers [Dealer Locator] located in Los Angeles / San Francisco, California are offering to Qualifying Customers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15,000 in Complimentary Fuel for 2yrs with 0% APR for 72-Months for as low as $23,108 after Incentives and Tax Credits. Pricing and availability may vary depending on your location, consult your local eligible dealership for more information.
  • Note: Offer is valid at select participating Los Angeles / San Francisco, California locations only. Refer to the forum thread for additional deal details and discussion.
Thank to community member ExtremeOak for and reddit user XIIXOO for finding this deal.

Deal Details:
  1. Visit your local eligible Toyota Norcal Dealer [Dealer Locator]
  2. Shop for a eligible 2021 Toyota Mirai model that qualifies for the TFS Cash offer and Fuel Card offer mentioned on the page here
    • Note: Qualified buyers can finance a new 2021 Mirai at 0% APR for 72 Months.
  3. Apply for and purchase a qualifying model with prices starting from ~$50,408 (may vary by location)
  4. Toyota Cash Discount will deduct $20,000 from your total
  5. You will receive a $4,500 CA Tax Credit (more info)
  6. You will receive a $8,000 Federal Tax Credit (more info)
  7. You will also receive a Complimentary Fuel Card valid for up to 2 years or $15,000 of fuel (more info)
  8. Your total after incentives and tax credits will be as low as $23,108 and will vary depending on your location and model selection.
Additional Details:

Editor's Notes

Written by SaltyOne | Staff
  • We put this up due to popularity and the great discussion from our members in the comments that really highlights the spirit of the community. As a deal editing team we recognize the limited availability of this offer however
  • About this Deal:
    • Offer include a no cost maintenance plan with the purchase or lease of every new Toyota for 3 years or 35,000 miles, whichever comes first. 24-hour roadside assistance is also included for 3 years and unlimited miles
    • Terms:
      • 0% APR for 72 monthly payments of $13.89 for every $1,000 financed. Terms available on approved credit For only very well qualified customers/lessees through participating Toyota dealers and Toyota Financial Services (TFS). Cash offer must be applied toward required down payment amount or percentage. No down payment required if qualified for advertised offer. If you do not qualify for the offer, the amount and percentage of any down payment vary with your credit qualifications. There is no cash back option. Dealer contribution may vary and could affect price. Individual dealer prices, other terms and offers may vary. Must take retail delivery from dealer's stock and terms subject to vehicle availability. Cannot be combined with TFS Lease Cash, Customer Cash, Lease, Lease Subvention Cash. See your participating Toyota dealer for details. Offer available in CA regardless of buyer's residency; void where prohibited. Expires 03-31-2021. Toyota Financial Services is a service mark used by Toyota Motor Credit Corporation.
      • Customers who lease a 2021 Mirai will receive complimentary fuel for three years or $15,000, whichever comes first. Customers who purchase or finance a 2021 Mirai through June 30, 2021 receive an additional three years to use the $15,000 of fuel. Complimentary fuel term begins as of card activation or 90 days after the Mirai lease or purchase commencement date, whichever is earlier. Fuel card is nontransferable. The Mirai is a hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicle that must be fueled at hydrogen stations conforming to the standards. See https://cafcp.org/stationmap for current hydrogen fueling station locations.

Original Post

Written by ExtremeOak

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Top Comments

Ponzi
228 Posts
169 Reputation
I went to Hamer Toyota and they had balls to mark those up 3k plus 1k gps add-on. Came to $56.5k with no negotiation because stimulus money is here and dealers wants it all. Sad state
ExtremeOak
106 Posts
121 Reputation
Hydrogen Fuel cell is exempt from CA rebate income limits.

"The income cap applies for all eligible vehicle types except fuel-cell electric vehicles."

Source: cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/requirements/1470
sawman5
294 Posts
17 Reputation
Slow car, 0-60 is 9.3 sec

1,302 Comments

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Mar 23, 2021
141 Posts
Joined Jan 2018
Mar 23, 2021
Duke-GlobeTrotter
Mar 23, 2021
141 Posts
Quote from FishKilla :
Seems like the BEV fanboys have come in to try and crap on Toyota.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/n...r-BB1eQMJ1 [msn.com]
I am a fan of them all, Toyota and Tesla. Hybrids, PHEV, BEV, FCEV, Solar etc. There definitely is power grid capacity that needs, and will be addressed with the plan PHEVs and BEVs adoption. We can see that the BEVs are actually slower to adopt and there's currently no "explosion" as both proponents and opponents would like us to believe. The power grids in highly populated states like CA and Texas need to heavily invest in upgrading their infrastructure in parallel with the BEV/PHEV adoption. I think it's great that there is a simultaneous push for hydrogen technology in case states don't get their act together to supplement the gird by possibly reducing the need for vehicles to tap into the grid, whether it's mainly heavy machinery and/or with light passenger cars.
Mar 23, 2021
1,242 Posts
Joined Dec 2015
Mar 23, 2021
FishKilla
Mar 23, 2021
1,242 Posts
Quote from Gadget_Man :
The media shaped the EV hate yet Tesla was able to overcome it. Toyota should have invested in the infrastructure. They didn't, so it failed.
I honestly think Toyota is looking at the bigger picture here. There are many vehicles like oh, tractor trailers for 1, that can't "plug in" at home and wake up to a full tank. They need to refuel quickly. this is where hydrogen comes in.

Sure Toyota is "losing money" on these, but are they really? Maybe they are proving the technology in order to scale it to other applications?

Of course may take longer than expected but...

Earlier this month, Toyota announced a deal with truck maker Hino to jointly develop hydrogen fuel cell trucks for the North American market. The trucks will get the Toyota Mirai's hydrogen fuel cell technology and Hino's vehicle body, with plans to deliver a "demonstration vehicle" in the first half of 2021. That deal comes after Toyota in 2019 announced a separate collaboration with Kenworth Truck to develop heavy-duty hydrogen trucks for North America.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mo...981340002/
Mar 23, 2021
1 Posts
Joined Jun 2020
Mar 23, 2021
Chawklet
Mar 23, 2021
1 Posts
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inv...=295429354

2020 mirai in CA with 980 miles 21k.

Seems like hydrogen is dead. Better have a plan to never need to sell the car, The market is already gashed. The deal here is just proof that theyre desperate to offload inventory of a dying tech.
Mar 23, 2021
735 Posts
Joined Feb 2011
Mar 23, 2021
nautilii
Mar 23, 2021
735 Posts
Quote from FishKilla :
I honestly think Toyota is looking at the bigger picture here. There are many vehicles like oh, tractor trailers for 1, that can't "plug in" at home and wake up to a full tank. They need to refuel quickly. this is where hydrogen comes in.

Sure Toyota is "losing money" on these, but are they really? Maybe they are proving the technology in order to scale it to other applications?

Of course may take longer than expected but...

Earlier this month, Toyota announced a deal with truck maker Hino to jointly develop hydrogen fuel cell trucks for the North American market. The trucks will get the Toyota Mirai's hydrogen fuel cell technology and Hino's vehicle body, with plans to deliver a "demonstration vehicle" in the first half of 2021. That deal comes after Toyota in 2019 announced a separate collaboration with Kenworth Truck to develop heavy-duty hydrogen trucks for North America.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mo...981340002/
I don't really see an issue with BEV semis.

Truckers are only allowed to work 11 hours out of 14 once they begin a shift, and have to take a break of 10 consecutive hours once they've worked that 14. That is, they have to take 3 hours worth of breaks at any point during the day. That's federal law. They're also limited to 60 hours total in one week, or 70 in an 8 day period. Meaning an average of <9 hours of drive time per day is legally allowed.

Even the current consumer superchargers and the model 3 battery pack can charge at a rate of 250kW. The semi charger and battery will apparently handle 500kW to 1mW, which would fully charge a 600kwh battery in 45 mins to 2 hours - giving about 500 miles and 8 hours drive time. Even a consumer supercharger could charge the semi battery in about 3 hours. Even if trucks are getting cycled between fleet drivers, they've still got 18+ hours of daily uptime, which is about the max that can realistically happen.

In any case, HFC vehicles may start with more initial range (for now), but hydrogen needs even more of a refueling infrastructure before it's viable for interstate trucking anyway. BEVs have a big head start and electric charging stations are much easier to install and maintain.

I think the place for HFC vehicles is short range, constant-use, ultra high mileage vehicles like city busses. Refueling infrastructure can be small, the maintenance/replacement of a fuel cell is not as much of a cost or reliability concern, and 'ultra fast charging' is more necessary than in trucking or home use because vehicles are frequently swapped between drivers.
Mar 23, 2021
216 Posts
Joined Oct 2016
Mar 23, 2021
trdr
Mar 23, 2021
216 Posts
I went to Hammer on Saturday, they had three lined up on the McDonald's side. I sat in the Ltd & XLE, ever up being too small in the back for our 13yo (quickly approaching 6'). The front felt cramped also with the dash sitting high and close to you.
Last edited by trdr March 23, 2021 at 02:29 PM.
Mar 23, 2021
122 Posts
Joined Oct 2019
Mar 23, 2021
TenseVest783
Mar 23, 2021
122 Posts
Quote from Microphone :
Please send me a referral code, thanks in advance!
Please send your full name and email address to send you the referral. It will come directly from Toyota.
Name and email need to match registration at time of purchase.
Mar 23, 2021
15,329 Posts
Joined Sep 2009
Mar 23, 2021
Knightshade
Mar 23, 2021
15,329 Posts
Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
. We can see that the BEVs are actually slower to adopt and there's currently no "explosion" as both proponents and opponents would like us to believe.

.... what?

EVs are basically the only type of vehicle whose sales are exploding.


In 2020, a year ICE sales were down significantly the share of sales from PHEV and BEV vehicles worldwide increased by almost 50% (from 2.26 million to 3.24 million)

In Europe overall car sales were down 20% for the year- EV sales were up 137%.

In China EV sales were up 12%, "all" cars down 4%

In the US EV sales up 4%, "all" cars down 15%

The only significant market showing an EV decline was, unsurprisingly, Japan... where the elephant in the room Toyota keeps denying EVs should be a thing... and Honda is, uh hoping GM can make some for them someday I guess?





Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
.. I think it's great that there is a simultaneous push for hydrogen technology in case states don't get their act together to supplement the gird by possibly reducing the need for vehicles to tap into the grid, whether it's mainly heavy machinery and/or with light passenger cars.

this continues to make no sense.

It wastes more electricity to:

Produce hydrogen fuel, transport and store it, pump it into an FCV car, then turn it BACK into electricity to power the car.

Than it does to:

Just put the electricity in the car to start with.



2-3 times more by most estimates


So if we need X amount of power to switch to BEVs, we'd need 2X-3X to switch to FCVs instead.

It's worse for the exact thing you're saying it's a good alternative for.

(and that's before adding the costs to create an entire new non-existance infrastructure for hydrogen fuel... rather than the one we already HAVE in every home for electricity)



There's a reason FCVs aren't going anywhere.

They seemed like a great idea 10-15 years ago when BEVs were still pretty poor on range and other aspects.

But technology doesn't stand still, and they're inferior in virtually every sense now.

Including the amount of electricity we'd need to switch to them.
Last edited by Knightshade March 23, 2021 at 02:57 PM.

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Mar 23, 2021
15,329 Posts
Joined Sep 2009
Mar 23, 2021
Knightshade
Mar 23, 2021
15,329 Posts
Quote from FishKilla :
I honestly think Toyota is looking at the bigger picture here. There are many vehicles like oh, tractor trailers for 1, that can't "plug in" at home and wake up to a full tank. They need to refuel quickly. this is where hydrogen comes in.
This was already debunked pretty well by nautilii showing the math for BEV semis working just fine based on the amount of driving actually needed.



Quote from FishKilla :
Sure Toyota is "losing money" on these, but are they really? Maybe they are proving the technology in order to scale it to other applications?

Of course may take longer than expected but...

Toyota has been developing FCV tech since... 1992.

They've had driveable test FCVs since at least 1996.

They sold some FC vehicles as early as 2002 (Highlander based FCHVs)

It's 2021 now.

Tesla in 2020 sold about as many BEVs in one week as Toyota has sold Mirais in the entire history of the model back to 2014


It's a failed technology nobody wants and has been surpassed by pure electric vehicles, but Toyota keeps throwing good money after bad.



Quote from FishKilla :
Earlier this month, Toyota announced a deal with truck maker Hino to jointly develop hydrogen fuel cell trucks for the North American market. The trucks will get the Toyota Mirai's hydrogen fuel cell technology and Hino's vehicle body, with plans to deliver a "demonstration vehicle" in the first half of 2021

That sounds a LOT like any one of the various deals Nikola announced for hydrogen trucks.

How'd those turn out? LMAO


Quote from FishKilla :
. That deal comes after Toyota in 2019 announced a separate collaboration with Kenworth Truck to develop heavy-duty hydrogen trucks for North America.
yes, and 2 years later they have delivered.... TWO WHOLE TRUCKS.

One of which is actually going to... themselves.


https://www.ccjdigital.com/busine...-customers



Quote :
Toyota Logistics Services and Southern Counties Express each will receive a Toyota fuel cell powered electric drivetrain T680 tractor for use in drayage operations in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

Don't worry though, by end of year they're gonna deliver.... 8...more...total.

3 of which are... also being "sold" to... Toyota logistics.


So they HOPE after almost 3 years of development to deliver 10 working trucks.

4 of them bought by...themselves.


It's almost like it's a crap product nobody actually wants or something!


Meanwhile Teslas semi goes into production potentially as early as next month... which means likely by end of the year they'll have hundreds on the road compared to Toyotas aspirational goal of TEN whole trucks produced... from tech they've been working on since 20 years before Teslas first mass produced vehicle.



EDIT- My bad- apparently 10 total trucks is the total for the entire program that Toyota and Kenworth announced-
https://www.greencarreports.com/n...-port-duty

All of them to only be used at port of Los Angeles. (makes sense, not like they can go all that far having no place to refuel if they leave a fairly small area).


And they're only managing to find customers for those due to California grant money to reduce emissions at ports and such.


Hilariously that last link has Kenworth specifically mentioning they're not married to FC and expect BEVs to be part of the future of trucking.




Hey, look... it mentions Nikola!

To toyotas credit I suppose they DO have a truck that actually moves under its own power at least, even if they've apparently only sold ONE, ever, to an actual customer so far.
Last edited by Knightshade March 23, 2021 at 04:30 PM.
Mar 23, 2021
141 Posts
Joined Jan 2018
Mar 23, 2021
Duke-GlobeTrotter
Mar 23, 2021
141 Posts
Quote from Knightshade :
.... what?

EVs are basically the only type of vehicle whose sales are exploding.


In 2020, a year ICE sales were down significantly the share of sales from PHEV and BEV vehicles worldwide increased by almost 50% (from 2.26 million to 3.24 million)

In Europe overall car sales were down 20% for the year- EV sales were up 137%.

In China EV sales were up 12%, "all" cars down 4%

In the US EV sales up 4%, "all" cars down 15%

The only significant market showing an EV decline was, unsurprisingly, Japan... where the elephant in the room Toyota keeps denying EVs should be a thing... and Honda is, uh hoping GM can make some for them someday I guess?








this continues to make no sense.

It wastes more electricity to:

Produce hydrogen fuel, transport and store it, pump it into an FCV car, then turn it BACK into electricity to power the car.

Than it does to:

Just put the electricity in the car to start with.



2-3 times more by most estimates


So if we need X amount of power to switch to BEVs, we'd need 2X-3X to switch to FCVs instead.

It's worse for the exact thing you're saying it's a good alternative for.

(and that's before adding the costs to create an entire new non-existance infrastructure for hydrogen fuel... rather than the one we already HAVE in every home for electricity)



There's a reason FCVs aren't going anywhere.

They seemed like a great idea 10-15 years ago when BEVs were still pretty poor on range and other aspects.

But technology doesn't stand still, and they're inferior in virtually every sense now.

Including the amount of electricity we'd need to switch to them.
I am a proponent of BEVs. I had a hybrid, PHEV, and currently own a BEV. I recently also purchased this Mirai FCEV. I also do plan to purchase a Tesla Y in my future, to replace my Leaf, as I think it's the best car in terms of size and EV convenience.

I don't think it's a zero sum game, at least not yet anyway as some are adamantly convinced, because the vehicle industry is massive and beyond just light passenger vehicles.

BEVs, hugely thanks to Tesla, has has increased growth yet we have to keep in mind that BEVs currently only make up about 2.2% of cars on the road. I am going to guess BEVs are more concentrated to certain areas than others. I live in the Bay Area and I see Tesla's everywhere but I don't think this is the case throughout the United States, yet, because of the hard numbers. I stand corrected that we can say "explosion" if we use it in relative terms of growth from previous years numbers. I think the it's hard to say the current growth has exploded to take over the market sales of cars anytime soon.

I am not saying hydrogen is a good or bad alternative. I am saying I am glad that companies like Toyota are willing to put money in R&D to pursue and advance different technologies such as hydrogen.

I am farthest from being an expert in any of these subjects. I am just a consumer that is excited but all the different technologies and options.

Technology of today will be different tomorrow. Most Hydrogen is not green but hopefully tech will improve so they will be. Most batteries don't last long for extended drives but hopefully they will be with solid state batteries. Maybe hydrogen will fail in light passenger vehicles. Wouldn't it be extra awesome if both succeeded? I am not rooting for any advancement of technology to fail. I will keep cheering them all on.
Last edited by Duke-GlobeTrotter March 23, 2021 at 05:02 PM.
Mar 24, 2021
1,427 Posts
Joined Nov 2016
Mar 24, 2021
th3g3ntl3man
Mar 24, 2021
1,427 Posts
Quote from nhhiep :
well, perfect for LA and Bay Area traffics. Heck, even 15sec is fine too
Underrated post.
Mar 24, 2021
4,050 Posts
Joined Feb 2006
Mar 24, 2021
Zerosvn
Mar 24, 2021
4,050 Posts
Lots of back and forth and generally good info in this thread.
At the end of the day, hydrogen cars aren't for everyone. I'm sure all buyers will have some struggle with fuel at some point. But consider this deal in its entirety. If it makes sense to you, buy it. If not, don't.

It seems this deal is making sense for a lot of people so, if you haven't made your decision, well, good luck finding one once you want to buy.

For me, it's more than a sound deal (best SD thus far) and I'm loving the car. I'm ready for the worst case scenario (taking into account 4+ hydrogen stations near me going down for months + 0 residual value after 3 years + insurance on 52k car).

Btw, update on my fuel range: I brought it from half to full tank last Friday and have since driven it down to 55% capacity with 183 miles left. That's a max range of ~333 miles based on my driving pattern.
Getting closer to my expected real world avg of 350 miles per tank.
Probably have to fuel up tomorrow or the next day.
Last edited by PassiveX March 23, 2021 at 05:30 PM.
Mar 24, 2021
1,427 Posts
Joined Nov 2016
Mar 24, 2021
th3g3ntl3man
Mar 24, 2021
1,427 Posts
When you factor in future value of the payments with inflation of 2%, it brings the purchase price down another $4k (if you put no money down).


Mar 24, 2021
1,427 Posts
Joined Nov 2016
Mar 24, 2021
th3g3ntl3man
Mar 24, 2021
1,427 Posts
Quote from PassiveX :
Lots of back and forth and generally good info in this thread.
At the end of the day, hydrogen cars aren't for everyone. I'm sure all buyers will have some struggle with fuel at some point. But consider this deal in its entirety. If it makes sense to you, buy it. If not, don't.

It seems this deal is making sense for a lot of people so, if you haven't made your decision, well, good luck finding one once you want to buy.

For me, it's more than a sound deal (best SD thus far) and I'm loving the car. I'm ready for the worst case scenario (taking into account 4+ hydrogen stations near me going down for months + 0 residual value after 3 years + insurance on 52k car).

Btw, update on my fuel range: I brought it from half to full tank last Friday and have since driven it down to 55% capacity with 183 miles left. That's a max range of ~333 miles based on my driving pattern.
Getting closer to my expected real world avg of 350 miles per tank.
Probably have to fuel up tomorrow or the next day.
I must be a lead-footed driver because I'm only getting a shade under 50 miles/kg. I live in the hills so no doubt that is hurting my mileage as well.
Mar 24, 2021
141 Posts
Joined Jan 2018
Mar 24, 2021
Duke-GlobeTrotter
Mar 24, 2021
141 Posts
Quote from PassiveX :
Lots of back and forth and generally good info in this thread.
At the end of the day, hydrogen cars aren't for everyone. I'm sure all buyers will have some struggle with fuel at some point. But consider this deal in its entirety. If it makes sense to you, buy it. If not, don't.

It seems this deal is making sense for a lot of people so, if you haven't made your decision, well, good luck finding one once you want to buy.

For me, it's more than a sound deal (best SD thus far) and I'm loving the car. I'm ready for the worst case scenario (taking into account 4+ hydrogen stations near me going down for months + 0 residual value after 3 years + insurance on 52k car).

Btw, update on my fuel range: I brought it from half to full tank last Friday and have since driven it down to 55% capacity with 183 miles left. That's a max range of ~333 miles based on my driving pattern.
Getting closer to my expected real world avg of 350 miles per tank.
Probably have to fuel up tomorrow or the next day.
I've been refueling at every opportunity, that isn't out of my way, in case the worst scenario there is some chance there is no supply for days/weeks when I need I need to refuel. The hydrogen supply has improved but still issues pop up randomly. My compromise is to refuel on my way home when I have longer drives. Not nearly as convenient as charging my Leaf each night but I don't enjoy the Leaf as I do my Mirai.
Last edited by Duke-GlobeTrotter March 23, 2021 at 06:45 PM.

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Mar 24, 2021
15,329 Posts
Joined Sep 2009
Mar 24, 2021
Knightshade
Mar 24, 2021
15,329 Posts
Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
I don't think it's a zero sum game, at least not yet anyway as some are adamantly convinced, because the vehicle industry is massive and beyond just light passenger vehicles.

BEVs, hugely thanks to Tesla, has has increased growth yet we have to keep in mind that BEVs currently only make up about 2.2% of cars on the road. I am going to guess BEVs are more concentrated to certain areas than others
We're still early in the S-curve of EV adoption.

It gets fast quick though.

Tesla has had 50% compound annual growth pretty much every year since they began mass production.. (and likely significantly higher than that for 2021 and 2022).

And a number of legacy makers are finally noticing which way the wind is blowing too (most prominently VW).

Many countries are already discussing banning new ICE vehicles entire within the next 10-15 years.


This will have compounding impacts faster than you'd expect... if nobody's gonna even be able to sell new ICE vehicles by X date, it's going to crater sales of them much sooner because- much like these FCV cars- nobody's gonna want a used one in a few years either.




Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
. I live in the Bay Area and I see Tesla's everywhere but I don't think this is the case throughout the United States, yet, because of the hard numbers

CA is certainly still their biggest market in the US... but then that's true for almost everybody since it's the most populated state.

Ultimately the issue is Tesla- as with all makers of even just decent EVs- is production limited.

If they could physically produce more cars, they'd easily sell them.

Demand is a lot higher than supply- something Tesla knew a long time ago but most other companies only realized in the last couple of years.

It's why VW is now scrambling to build half a dozen new battery factories.

Why GM is introducing 30 new EV models in the next 4 years.

Why Audi has discontinued development of new internal combustion engines.


For context on the growth-

Tesla sold 50,580 in 2015.

By 2020 they sold almost 10 times that number by adding just one more factory.

They're adding 2 more, and larger ones, this year.

By 2025 they expect to sell significantly more than 10 times their 2020 number.




Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
. I stand corrected that we can say "explosion" if we use it in relative terms of growth from previous years numbers. I think the it's hard to say the current growth has exploded to take over the market sales of cars anytime soon.
Why?

50% CAGR has Tesla producing 20 million new BEVs a year in less than a decade.

That's 25% of all new cars sold in a year- and just from ONE company.... there'll be plenty more EVs from the legacy companies that manage to make the transition.

(the ones that don't.... well, there's a lot of companies that made great horse carriages that aren't with us anymore either)


Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
I am not saying hydrogen is a good or bad alternative.
I am.

It's objectively terrible in comparison.

It's a stupid, inferior, solution given the current and future state of BEVs.


Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
I am saying I am glad that companies like Toyota are willing to put money in R&D to pursue and advance different technologies such as hydrogen.
In 1992? Sure.

Now, it's billions they've basically set on fire when they could've been working on better electrification which is the obvious future at this point.

The fact they failed to do so is why they've been on the offensive spreading FUD about electric cars--- they backed the wrong horse- and for way too long- and they're realizing just how screwed they are at this late stage so they're desperate to bail some more water out of what'll be an increasingly obviously sinking ship.


Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
Most batteries don't last long for extended drives but hopefully they will be with solid state batteries.
The average American drives less than 30 miles a day.

Meaning the 250-300 miles most typical new EVs offer is almost 10 times more than typically needed....

(and obviously Tesla is offering cars with over 400 miles of range today, and over 500 in the next year- and with quite fast charging for the occasional road trip).



Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
Maybe hydrogen will fail in light passenger vehicles
It already has.

As I mention- Toyotas been throwing money down the toilet on it since 1992.

The total # of Mirais ever sold is about what just ONE BEV company sells in 1 week.


It's a dead technology for passenger cars. This sale is evidence of that.


Thankfully the number of who refuse to learn this lesson is down to basically Toyota and Hyundai at this point (and Hyundai is at least making credible BEV efforts)



Mercedes Benz, which has ALSO wasted 30 years working on FCV passenger cars, finally abandoned their own efforts last year.

Honda also announced last year they were putting further FCV efforts on "indefinite hold"

Volkswagen published a detailed explanation of why FCVs suck here:
https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.c...stion-5868

Quote from VW :
The conclusion is clear: in the case of the passenger car, everything speaks in favor of the battery and practically nothing speaks in favor of hydrogen

Quote from Duke-GlobeTrotter :
. Wouldn't it be extra awesome if both succeeded?

Not really.

It would mean massive amounts of wasted resources on an objectively inferior, less efficient, far far more costly, solution for no apparent benefit to anybody but the people pushing the inferior solution.


Format wars are generally bad for everyone.
Last edited by Knightshade March 23, 2021 at 06:52 PM.
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