Original Post
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Edited April 5, 2024
at 11:26 AM
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https://www.tesla.com/inventory/new/my
Tesla is attempting to clear out inventory on existing Model Y. With the instant $7,500 tax credit, this is an up to $12,500 discount on a new Model Y.
Prices seem to be as follows: After the $7,500 credit and new discount, the Model Y RWD starts at $33,890, the Long Range at $37,490, and the range-topping Model Y Performance at $40,690.
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There's a pattern with Tesla threads here. I don't care if you all wanna discuss the deal or the cars but it always turns into paaaages and paaaages of bickering back and forth and nobody ,except for the few involved, enjoy that or wanna wade through that. So cut that stuff out, please and thank you.
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Then pointed out even Apples sales declined, debunking the idea it's even specific to cars at all.
And in Q1 of 2023, Toyota saw a drop in sales- a drop very similar to Teslas Q1 24
https://www.reuters.com/business/...023-04-03/
Was Toyotas quality bad in Q1 2023?
For that matter Tesla sales grew (massively) every quarter going back years before this one (excluding the quarter covid hit).... does that mean Tesla quality just kept getting better and better for years and years, and suddenly, JUST this quarter, went way down?
Or is your explanation nonsensical and unrelated to cyclical sales patterns?
(spoiler- it's that second one)
All-time best-ever month:
Corolla HEV
Corolla Cross HEV
Crown
RAV4 HEV
Sequoia
Tundra HEV
The facts are Tesla's sales are down, facts are Toyota had the all time best month in Q1 with a V6 Sequoia that gets 22mpg AT BEST. Oh, and zero federal tax rebates/credits or really any PURCHASE incentives, unlike Tesla. Toyota is so popular in NorCal that most of the local dealers are still adding dealer markups and still selling a ton of them.
I know you won't take me up on it, but I'll show you around San Francisco, you'd probably fit in around that area.
All-time best-ever month:
Corolla HEV
Corolla Cross HEV
Crown
RAV4 HEV
Sequoia
Tundra HEV
Ok.
But prior to this quarter Toyota had seen sales DECLINES.
Did Toyotas quality suddenly get MUCH better to cause the increase?
Because that was your argument. Sales are indication of quality.
So Toyota quality was bad last year, but suddenly good now?
And Teslas sales were up, massively, every quarter for years--- was their quality good, and better every quarter, then- but suddenly bad in Q1 2024?
And right now in Q1 2024 Audi saw a big decline in sales-- is their quality suddenly bad?
Porsche saw a sales decline too--- is THEIR quality suddenly bad?
Or is your explanation tying the two together nonsensical and unrelated to cyclical sales patterns?
(spoiler- it's that second one)
Can't tell if this is some weird dig at homosexuality or homelessness
https://www.tirerack.co
Set of Kumho tires for the Y, $772.76 set of 4
https://www.tirerack.co
So that's now $1400 for the Hondas maintenance versus just $800 for the Tesla...
And actually I'm very dubious only $600 in ICE-related maintenance over 100k miles too but didn't see you actually provide math for that.... at a glance I see Honda dealers listing a TON of stuff every 15-30k miles for the CRV including spark plugs and fluid changes for power steering, brakes, transmission, differential, etc. PLUS timing belt at 60k. So the to-100k cost should be much higher than $600 plus tires. And to 120k would be far worse (second timing belt change)- for example:
https://www.performance
You also throw out some FUD at the end about how EVs probably, really, need a bunch of coolant changes they don't actually need....EVs produce massively less drivetrain heat than ICE-- that's why the fluid is lifetime.... and there's less fluids TO change- power steering is electric not hydraulic for example on top of no engine oil.
All-time best-ever month:
Corolla HEV
Corolla Cross HEV
Crown
RAV4 HEV
Sequoia
Tundra HEV
The facts are Tesla's sales are down, facts are Toyota had the all time best month in Q1 with a V6 Sequoia that gets 22mpg AT BEST. Oh, and zero federal tax rebates/credits or really any PURCHASE incentives, unlike Tesla. Toyota is so popular in NorCal that most of the local dealers are still adding dealer markups and still selling a ton of them.
I know you won't take me up on it, but I'll show you around San Francisco, you'd probably fit in around that area.
Toyota sales are up? Good for them. Great company. They're bucking the trend.
We're in or about to recession hard. JB Hunt had double miss on earning- Sales & EPS. It's stock is getting int beat up.
When trucking companies are having difficulty, you know recession is looming.
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CRV - $36,332.35 (that includes sales tax)
CRV Hybrid - $42,009.31 (includes sales tax)
MY LR - $45,664.37 (includes sales tax and tax credit, does not include "fees", the website doesn't say what or how much these are).
Assuming we finance with a CU (Tesla's rate is atrocious compared to Honda - they want 6.39% with 9% down for 72 mo, Honda has 4.9% for 60 mo), that's 5.89% for 72 mo.
Total cost of the vehicles assuming $10k down no trade in (also no loyalty incentives, e.g. Honda has $750 right now):
CRV - $41,332.67
CRV Hybrid - $48,075.49
MY LR - $52,423.22
Then I started looking up recommended maintenance for the Hondas. The list for each is very long but the vast majority of them are do-nothing things like "check fluid level" or "inspect XYZ". In fact, there are only a few genuine, actionable services, such as engine oil changes, ATF and diff changes. Yes there will be an occasional engine air filter change but that's like a whopping $15 and it's not often enough it will really change the calculations.
I also used a local chain (Town Fair for those in New England) for tire costs. 50k is perfectly doable for a CRV (or most ICE for that matter) having owned (2) CRV and (2) Pilots. I had to google it for the Y, but it seems 30-40k is an estimate, so I used 35k. Also, I picked the first "brand name" tire in the list for each vehicle - e.g. I didn't pick el cheapos for any car. I was surprised at how much more expensive the tires are for the Y - $1300 vs. ~ $800 for the CR-V.
As it turns out, the tires alone blow the cost of fluid changes on both the Honda's out of the water. At 100k, the Hondas will have cost around $1400 in maintenance, which includes tires and various oil changes, and the Y will cost around $1300, just in tires (e.g. zero other maintenance cost). [note that this is an amortized estimate, meaning at 100k the Honda's will just be getting their second set of tires (originals last to 50, next paid set lasts to 100k, etc) and the Tesla will be about 1.857 sets in, even though the cost of the second paid set will have been paid in one lump sum]
For efficiency, I used the average in the range for each vehicle; CRV ~ 29.5 MPG, CRV Hybrid, 37 MPG and Y, 3.5 miles/kwh. FWIW, I typically find EPA estimates for ICE's are on the low side, and it appears that might be a combination of driving habits, the EPA testing protocol not really being an accurate representation of driving in general, and manufacturer-specific tweaking (legacy autos tend to be conservative)
If I add it all up for me given exactly what I pay for electricity and gas *right now* then the 100k TCD for each vehicle is:
CRV - $53,223
CRV Hybrid - $57,846
MY LR - $61,723
If I use US average prices for electricity and gas right now ($0.1545 and $3.63), then:
CRV - $55,020
CRV Hybrid - $59,278
MY LR - $58,137
So with the US average cost of both electricity and gasoline the MY is theoretically saving around $1100 over the course of 100k (~ 7 years) using today's costs vs. a hybrid. The ICE comparable is still about $3000 less in TCD than the MY.
Thus I encourage people to run some simple calculations before assuming one option will necessarily be cheaper than the other. e.g. do you anticipate the cost of gas to rise or fall in the next 7 years? Electricity?
Notice I said TCD, not TCO - that's the Total Cost to Drive the car over 100k miles (which is about 7 or so years of the average driver), not Ownership. There are other costs that aren't included in the above. Off the top of my head are:
- Insurance. Some people report much higher insurance premiums for EV's, some people report them being the same as ICE. YMMV.
- Property tax. In CT we pay annual property taxes on autos, they are basically taxed the same as real property (mill rate/1000*assessed value, etc etc) and in general is around 2-3% of the book value of the car, so more expensive car = more expensive annual property tax
- Cost to install any kind of home charger. Yeah I guess you could get by with 120V, assuming you have access to one, but that's not a real charging solution.
- Random maintenance. Shit happens. That said, I think the above is a really good representation of ICE maintenance in general up to 100k and probably more like up to 130k or so, before you might have to worry about a water pump going or spark plugs.
- Assumes absolutely zero EV maintenance beyond tires. EV's still use coolant and "transmission"/drive unit fluid. Note that sometimes these are advertised as "lifetime" but just like "lifetime" fluid in an ICE, you have to question what that means, as it's probably when the warranty runs out. Multiple sites recommend changing drive unit fluid every 50k miles, which should be comparable to an ATF or rear diff fluid change in the ICE above, in terms of cost.
Did you include tax incentive in Tesla?
You do realize that Toyota is unable to keep up demand for lot of it's cars.. and dealers are jacking up prices because of that
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