2024 Tesla Model Y + $7,500 Federal Tax Credit Expired

I listed a bunch of car companies whose sales all declined- many of them more than Teslas- to debunk your nonsense claim this was a Tesla/Elon specific drop.

Then pointed out even Apples sales declined, debunking the idea it's even specific to cars at all.






And in Q1 of 2023, Toyota saw a drop in sales- a drop very similar to Teslas Q1 24

https://www.reuters.com/business/...023-04-03/


Was Toyotas quality bad in Q1 2023?

For that matter Tesla sales grew (massively) every quarter going back years before this one (excluding the quarter covid hit).... does that mean Tesla quality just kept getting better and better for years and years, and suddenly, JUST this quarter, went way down?


Or is your explanation nonsensical and unrelated to cyclical sales patterns?

(spoiler- it's that second one)

Here we go, grabbing data a year old. I am talking about right now, 2024.

All-time best-ever month:
Corolla HEV
Corolla Cross HEV
Crown
RAV4 HEV
Sequoia
Tundra HEV

I know you won't take me up on it, but I'll show you around San Francisco, you'd probably fit in around that area.

I also used a local chain (Town Fair for those in New England) for tire costs. 50k is perfectly doable for a CRV (or most ICE for that matter) having owned (2) CRV and (2) Pilots. I had to google it for the Y, but it seems 30-40k is an estimate, so I used 35k. Also, I picked the first "brand name" tire in the list for each vehicle - e.g. I didn't pick el cheapos for any car. I was surprised at how much more expensive the tires are for the Y - $1300 vs. ~ $800 for the CR-V.

Here we go, grabbing data a year old. I am talking about right now, 2024.

All-time best-ever month:
Corolla HEV
Corolla Cross HEV
Crown
RAV4 HEV
Sequoia
Tundra HEV

The facts are Tesla's sales are down, facts are Toyota had the all time best month in Q1 with a V6 Sequoia that gets 22mpg AT BEST. Oh, and zero federal tax rebates/credits or really any PURCHASE incentives, unlike Tesla. Toyota is so popular in NorCal that most of the local dealers are still adding dealer markups and still selling a ton of them.

I know you won't take me up on it, but I'll show you around San Francisco, you'd probably fit in around that area.

Not sure if it is just me but I am not able to see the recent posts on this thread. Anyone else has this issue?

I decided to do a better dive on estimated 100k miles TCO for 3 options (since others have used these examples in this thread): 2024 CRV EX AWD, 2024 CRV Hybrid and the MY LR AWD. Using actual numbers from my local Honda dealer and Tesla's site, cheapest vehicle in each trim:
CRV - $36,332.35 (that includes sales tax)
CRV Hybrid - $42,009.31 (includes sales tax)
MY LR - $45,664.37 (includes sales tax and tax credit, does not include "fees", the website doesn't say what or how much these are).

Assuming we finance with a CU (Tesla's rate is atrocious compared to Honda - they want 6.39% with 9% down for 72 mo, Honda has 4.9% for 60 mo), that's 5.89% for 72 mo.

Total cost of the vehicles assuming $10k down no trade in (also no loyalty incentives, e.g. Honda has $750 right now):
CRV - $41,332.67
CRV Hybrid - $48,075.49
MY LR - $52,423.22

Then I started looking up recommended maintenance for the Hondas. The list for each is very long but the vast majority of them are do-nothing things like "check fluid level" or "inspect XYZ". In fact, there are only a few genuine, actionable services, such as engine oil changes, ATF and diff changes. Yes there will be an occasional engine air filter change but that's like a whopping $15 and it's not often enough it will really change the calculations.

I also used a local chain (Town Fair for those in New England) for tire costs. 50k is perfectly doable for a CRV (or most ICE for that matter) having owned (2) CRV and (2) Pilots. I had to google it for the Y, but it seems 30-40k is an estimate, so I used 35k. Also, I picked the first "brand name" tire in the list for each vehicle - e.g. I didn't pick el cheapos for any car. I was surprised at how much more expensive the tires are for the Y - $1300 vs. ~ $800 for the CR-V.

As it turns out, the tires alone blow the cost of fluid changes on both the Honda's out of the water. At 100k, the Hondas will have cost around $1400 in maintenance, which includes tires and various oil changes, and the Y will cost around $1300, just in tires (e.g. zero other maintenance cost). [note that this is an amortized estimate, meaning at 100k the Honda's will just be getting their second set of tires (originals last to 50, next paid set lasts to 100k, etc) and the Tesla will be about 1.857 sets in, even though the cost of the second paid set will have been paid in one lump sum]

For efficiency, I used the average in the range for each vehicle; CRV ~ 29.5 MPG, CRV Hybrid, 37 MPG and Y, 3.5 miles/kwh. FWIW, I typically find EPA estimates for ICE's are on the low side, and it appears that might be a combination of driving habits, the EPA testing protocol not really being an accurate representation of driving in general, and manufacturer-specific tweaking (legacy autos tend to be conservative)

If I add it all up for me given exactly what I pay for electricity and gas *right now* then the 100k TCD for each vehicle is:
CRV - $53,223
CRV Hybrid - $57,846
MY LR - $61,723

If I use US average prices for electricity and gas right now ($0.1545 and $3.63), then:
CRV - $55,020
CRV Hybrid - $59,278
MY LR - $58,137

So with the US average cost of both electricity and gasoline the MY is theoretically saving around $1100 over the course of 100k (~ 7 years) using today's costs vs. a hybrid. The ICE comparable is still about $3000 less in TCD than the MY.

Thus I encourage people to run some simple calculations before assuming one option will necessarily be cheaper than the other. e.g. do you anticipate the cost of gas to rise or fall in the next 7 years? Electricity?

Notice I said TCD, not TCO - that's the Total Cost to Drive the car over 100k miles (which is about 7 or so years of the average driver), not Ownership. There are other costs that aren't included in the above. Off the top of my head are:
- Insurance. Some people report much higher insurance premiums for EV's, some people report them being the same as ICE. YMMV.
- Property tax. In CT we pay annual property taxes on autos, they are basically taxed the same as real property (mill rate/1000*assessed value, etc etc) and in general is around 2-3% of the book value of the car, so more expensive car = more expensive annual property tax
- Cost to install any kind of home charger. Yeah I guess you could get by with 120V, assuming you have access to one, but that's not a real charging solution.
- Random maintenance. Shit happens. That said, I think the above is a really good representation of ICE maintenance in general up to 100k and probably more like up to 130k or so, before you might have to worry about a water pump going or spark plugs.
- Assumes absolutely zero EV maintenance beyond tires. EV's still use coolant and "transmission"/drive unit fluid. Note that sometimes these are advertised as "lifetime" but just like "lifetime" fluid in an ICE, you have to question what that means, as it's probably when the warranty runs out. Multiple sites recommend changing drive unit fluid every 50k miles, which should be comparable to an ATF or rear diff fluid change in the ICE above, in terms of cost.

Former owner, sharing my horrific experience with this trash company. I'm trying to save people the headache. Also trying to save investors $, or if they don't listen, watch how their mental gymnastics allow them to invest in such a overvalued meme stock. I'm here for the trainwreck.

A long time Elon and Tesla hater, these are pretty good deals,

Toyota annual sales are down 400K and Tesla sales are up 450K in the US the past five years, just saying.

So, for every ev including ioniq 5. I don't think there's any ev with cheap insurance.

Tesla makes electric vehicles that work and are supposedly good for the environment. SpaceX is sending rockets and humans to space and doing it cheaper than NASA, The Boring Company is digging tunnels, Neuralink is working to help humans, X is the online Town Hall where all voices are now heard, etc.. So, unlike many other billionaires, he uses his money to advance humanity and society, rather than spending it on car collections, yachts, etc. He will go down in history as one of the greatest person of our lifetime for all that he has done. So, I'm floored why you *hate* him. I mean, that's your right if so.. but I see that what he has done has been good for humanity and the planet.