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Excellent article about Covid-19; Excellent Grand Rounds from UCSF on Covid-19

6,121 2,322 March 16, 2020 at 10:12 PM
https://arstechnica.com/science/2...xqLHDY2oBs

This answers a lot of the usual questions without any political noise.

Stay healthy, my friends.

And if you haven't gotten a flu shot yet, for goodness sake do it today!


Here's an excellent Grand Rounds discussing Covid-19 from UCSF

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UafK-4vMr8M
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Dr. J
03-17-2020 at 06:30 AM.
03-17-2020 at 06:30 AM.
Quote from ProfessorChaos :
https://arstechnica.com/science/2...xqLHDY2oBs

This answers a lot of the usual questions without any political noise.

Stay healthy, my friends.

And if you haven't gotten a flu shot yet, for goodness sake do it today!

I use that to point out how there are lots of idiots in this world.

The flu kills 40k people a year, on average. It's been as high as 80k in the past few seasons. 90% of those it kills are 65+. Covid has killed around 70 people in the US so far. It has no vaccine, people freak out and buy up all the toilet paper in the supermarket. You're FAR FAR FAR more likely to be affected by the flu, yet there are many people that refuse to get the flu vaccine, and it can be had FOR FREE.
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ProfessorChaos
03-17-2020 at 06:49 AM.
03-17-2020 at 06:49 AM.
Here's a thread that can help folks get flu shots as cheaply as possible. If you have any insurance at all, the flu shot is free.

If you can keep from getting the flu, you can avoid the hospital and save space for Coronavirus patients as well as save your own health.

The flu is something we actually can fight pretty effectively.

https://slickdeals.net/f/13436800-costco-pharmacy-seasonal-4-strain-flu-shot-afluria-flucelvax-20-costco-warehouse-locations-only?src=SiteSearch
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babygdav
03-17-2020 at 05:19 PM.
03-17-2020 at 05:19 PM.
Ars is a fool when it comes to corona!

"Don't wear a mask when your Healthy?!?"
Fools!! A mask won't save you AFTER infection!!

Fact: on another virus,
"The mean penetrations of viable MS2 through the N95 and P100 FFRs/cartridges were typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions."

Masks work like social distancing!!
Just make sure it's N/P 95 or 100!

....

9/11 kills less than 3,000 in a few locations and everyone panics for years.

Corona kills more than 7,000 and ars assumes you shouldn't panic??
A pandemic says WHO.
Where stock markets crash like the Depression?
Where entire cities, states, countries shut down inbound travelers?
Cruise ships, airlines, travel get cancelled?
Restaurants, gyms, bars, etc all forced to close?
All military personnel prevented from traveling out of state?
...
...
Even Trump does a 180 on the matter?!

F$ dumb to believe ARS when the worldwide response is MANY TIMES more severe than 9/11.

Seriously, a social, economic, health distaster right now and no known end in sight.

Baby Ebola had landed and the world is gonna hurt.

...

As for death rates and numbers vs other things, like even eating a burger = heart attack, that's a while nother debate why people focus on certain things that kill them and not others.

Corona is bad enough that if the grandfather's infected, 1 in 6 chance of dying.
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Last edited by babygdav March 17, 2020 at 07:51 PM.
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ProfessorChaos
03-17-2020 at 08:32 PM.
03-17-2020 at 08:32 PM.
Miss your Thorazine dose today, dude?
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Ms.arteest
03-17-2020 at 08:36 PM.
03-17-2020 at 08:36 PM.
Quote from babygdav :
Ars is a fool when it comes to corona!

"Don't wear a mask when your Healthy?!?"
Fools!! A mask won't save you AFTER infection!!

Fact: on another virus,
"The mean penetrations of viable MS2 through the N95 and P100 FFRs/cartridges were typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions."

Masks work like social distancing!!
Just make sure it's N/P 95 or 100!

....

9/11 kills less than 3,000 in a few locations and everyone panics for years.

Corona kills more than 7,000 and ars assumes you shouldn't panic??
A pandemic says WHO.
Where stock markets crash like the Depression?
Where entire cities, states, countries shut down inbound travelers?
Cruise ships, airlines, travel get cancelled?
Restaurants, gyms, bars, etc all forced to close?
All military personnel prevented from traveling out of state?
...
...
Even Trump does a 180 on the matter?!

F$ dumb to believe ARS when the worldwide response is MANY TIMES more severe than 9/11.

Seriously, a social, economic, health distaster right now and no known end in sight.

Baby Ebola had landed and the world is gonna hurt.

...

As for death rates and numbers vs other things, like even eating a burger = heart attack, that's a while nother debate why people focus on certain things that kill them and not others.

Corona is bad enough that if the grandfather's infected, 1 in 6 chance of dying.
Leave the masks for the health professionals on the front line, and stay home if at all possible. You've probably bought all of the toilet paper and hand sanitizer that your house will hold. Now go Netflix and chill.Wave
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Dr. J
03-18-2020 at 05:25 AM.
03-18-2020 at 05:25 AM.
Quote from ProfessorChaos :
Miss your Thorazine dose today, dude?

If you look across the swath of non-deal forums here there are some posters where you can get a sense of their general sentiment. This guy is clearly in full on panic mode.

Meanwhile in other news:

Around 6 out of 7 with coronavirus may be undetected, study finds [foxnews.com]

Basically, there are a huge number of people that are infected but asymptomatic or so unsymptomatic they wouldn't know the difference. This should make sense to anyone that has been following this thing. Of course this also implies the CFR is a LOT lower than is reported. Of course the article doesn't go that far, but I've noticed that most reputable cites don't give a CFR even if it's very easy to calculate a rudimentary one, even Johns Hopkins does not. That has to be on purpose.
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Last edited by Dr. J March 18, 2020 at 05:28 AM.
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babygdav
03-18-2020 at 01:57 PM.
03-18-2020 at 01:57 PM.
Quote from Ms.arteest :
Leave the masks for the health professionals on the front line, and stay home if at all possible. You've probably bought all of the toilet paper and hand sanitizer that your house will hold. Now go Netflix and chill.Wave
The medical supply chain is independent of the consumer supply chain, even different distribution centers.

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1240323780708388875?s=06

ALL US businesses are now under "military"-like control.
All production can be diverted by the US government to fight the corona.

CHILL?????
Nothing like this has EVER been done since World War II!!!!!!!!!

Don't be foolish and don't think this is not a critical situation!! Stock up now!!!

....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-virus-plan-anticipates-18-month-pandemic-and-widespread-shortages/ar-BB11ktjA?li=BBnb7Kz

The REALITY the US government is planning and preparing for.

Seriously.

Anyone who still doesn't see the pandemic crisis:
ALL OF EU SHUT DOWN
ALL OF China, Israel, Australia, ETC shut down.
Big cities like SF, LA shut down.
ALL military personnel prevented from out of state travel.
ALL US businesses now under government control.
Graduation and schools cancelled?
Etc...

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178289/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-us-countries-italy-iran-singapore-hong-kong
Exponential growth in infected, importantly DEATHS!

100 dead today, 200 in 2-3 days, 400 in 4, 800 in 6....

Really?
Still not highly worried, stocking up, and wearing a mask out??

Preparing now is not panicing - that would be when the supply chain fails and food deliveries simply stop for weeks/months.

Just think.
If 1% of long haul truckers get sick, 350 million Americans, 3.5 million won't get any food or supplies delivered. This isn't a job you suddenly find anyone, drop in a truck and say Drive!

Air and ship transport has already been disrupted, with increasingly difficult import of critical pharmaceuticals and materials. How much of the US drug supply is manufactured overseas?

Right.

Don't be foolish and be blind.
Corona has already disrupted far more than the superficial supermarket panic buying, reaching deep into the unseen, critical supply chain system.
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fsyowad
03-18-2020 at 03:49 PM.
03-18-2020 at 03:49 PM.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) - How Long Does it Live on Surfaces?





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c...UJ0&t=211s
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Samwise Gamgee
03-18-2020 at 07:01 PM.
03-18-2020 at 07:01 PM.
It's disingenuous to comment about mortality total, and not mention mortality rate.

Covid has a high mortality rate compared to season flu, and even spanish flu, and there is no vaccine.
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Original Poster
ProfessorChaos
03-21-2020 at 10:33 PM.
03-21-2020 at 10:33 PM.
More good stuff added to the OP
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Original Poster
ProfessorChaos
03-21-2020 at 11:05 PM.
03-21-2020 at 11:05 PM.
Infectious Disease Experts Don't Know How Bad The Coronavirus Is Going To Get, Either


https://fivethirtyeight.com/featu...card_image
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