Joined Dec 2007
L6: Expert
Forum Thread
ticking time bomb for cryptos
January 16, 2021 at
09:57 AM
Thread Details
Last Edited by Kouskous44 January 18, 2021 at 08:19 AM
Thoughts on this article?
I understand a lot of pro-crypto have their biases especially due to their exposures. however having experienced the housing crisis/gfc in 2007, I understand the unwinding of CDOs, CMOs, synthetics, etc. and when the liquidity dried up. The only reason the global economy didn't collapse was due to Central banks stepping in and injecting/providing liquidity. I wonder if this would happen for decentralized cryptos and have my doubts.
A lot of noise is being made about bitcoin running up to 100k+, but I think everyone thinks its a party until the music stops and exchanges run out of fiat or become insolvent with the demise of tether. I never realized the float was that large and think this is a huge black swan event.
I don't think its a crypto "killer" and see value in blockchain tech, but the collapse can cause a massive price shock and am concerned for those that are levered using money out of their retirement accounts or taking loans against their homes. Sure there is a possibility it may go on for a few more days or even years, and people in the ecosystem may say ill pull the money out before.... many said the same with other investments also before other collapses and were not able to do so.
Crashes happen when people least expect it.
https://crypto-anonymous-2021.med...dcf7
I understand a lot of pro-crypto have their biases especially due to their exposures. however having experienced the housing crisis/gfc in 2007, I understand the unwinding of CDOs, CMOs, synthetics, etc. and when the liquidity dried up. The only reason the global economy didn't collapse was due to Central banks stepping in and injecting/providing liquidity. I wonder if this would happen for decentralized cryptos and have my doubts.
A lot of noise is being made about bitcoin running up to 100k+, but I think everyone thinks its a party until the music stops and exchanges run out of fiat or become insolvent with the demise of tether. I never realized the float was that large and think this is a huge black swan event.
I don't think its a crypto "killer" and see value in blockchain tech, but the collapse can cause a massive price shock and am concerned for those that are levered using money out of their retirement accounts or taking loans against their homes. Sure there is a possibility it may go on for a few more days or even years, and people in the ecosystem may say ill pull the money out before.... many said the same with other investments also before other collapses and were not able to do so.
Crashes happen when people least expect it.
https://crypto-anonymous-2021.med...dcf7
71 Comments
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But as a zero sum game, there were a lot of people who also lost a fortune as a counterparty to your trade.
I hope it does go up to 200k, but for others who are new to this, there will be a time when there is a 90% drawdown in crypto. And a majority wont see it coming so be aware of the risks. Most of ct didnt see this drawdown coming either.
Premiums on grayscale are the easiest trade. Making 10-30% on market shifts in premiums occasionally is a nice Alpha to bitcoin.
Premiums on grayscale are the easiest trade. Making 10-30% on market shifts in premiums occasionally is a nice Alpha to bitcoin.
Ger what you are saying from a trading perspective.
Im talking about fat tail risk, idyosyncractic risk, and systemic risk. Still valid and eventally happens historically. Most dont have the skills or insight to get out of the trade prior.
Got to zoom out. 🤙
That just for NY. Still doesnt address issues and concerns around usd backing and the liquidity issue should there be a run on the money.
Understandable given the potential opportunity; dont put in what you cant afford to loose. Hope it works out.
Suggest considering appropriate allocation and prudent risk managment - as should be with any investment.
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Suggest considering appropriate allocation and prudent risk managment - as should be with any investment.
Alts.. got it.
No you don't get it.
Good luck.
Good luck.
My ROTH? 806% Trust me, I get it. 80% draw down would put me where?
$100 in s&P would be $153
$100 in my Roth would be $906 less $725 for $181...or still outperforming the S&P by a ton.
My ROTH? 806% Trust me, I get it. 80% draw down would put me where?
$100 in s&P would be $153
$100 in my Roth would be $906 less $725 for $181...or still outperforming the S&P by a ton.
You are very selective on your points to shill crypto. Keep in mind there will be a time of 70%+ drawdown and my guess is youll be quiet
If you were so successfull you wouldnt be bragging on this forum. Do what you do but dont mislead others to fomo.
You compare active vs passive during a volitile period. Many active traders have done much better than the numbers you stated so its not comparing apples to apples. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
For those looking into crypto please also read this:
https://hackernoon.com/the-end-of...t-wk1l330l
If you were so successfull you wouldnt be bragging on this forum. Do what you do but dont mislead others to fomo.
You compare active vs passive during a volitile period. Many active traders have done much better than the numbers you stated so its not comparing apples to apples. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
For those looking into crypto please also read this:
https://hackernoon.com/the-end-of...t-wk1l330l [hackernoon.com]
Could be soon could be later. No one knows including you.
But the risks of a drawdown is much higher here than those who claim to buy much earlier.
See this ponzi scheme only works if more money goes into it. Its the people who get in later who have a greater chance of loss.
Whatever I say wont convince you anyways. Keep on hodling.
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But the risks of a drawdown is much higher here than those who claim to buy much earlier.
See this ponzi scheme only works if more money goes into it. Its the people who get in later who have a greater chance of loss.
Whatever I say wont convince you anyways. Keep on hodling.