Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
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Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
I really wanted to like this book, especially on the heels of Never Split the Difference. To me, it didn't have a lot of impact because the practical, every day strategies of shifting thought process to managing/negotiating "the unknowns" weren't clear. I recommend the book, in the hopes that you might get something out of it, as it isn't "bad." Just don't expect a direct application of poker theory to daily thinking; more of a thought experiment and top level readjustment piece.
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I really wanted to like this book, especially on the heels of Never Split the Difference. To me, it didn't have a lot of impact because the practical, every day strategies of shifting thought process to managing/negotiating "the unknowns" weren't clear. I recommend the book, in the hopes that you might get something out of it, as it isn't "bad." Just don't expect a direct application of poker theory to daily thinking; more of a thought experiment and top level readjustment piece.
My goodness there have been a lot of really good $2 book deals these past 3-4 days. My Google Survey balance has gone down quite a bit these past few days. Happy to add this one to the backlog. I've enjoyed listening to her on many podcasts, and she references this book a lot during the interviews.
I liked this book. A lot of the shortcomings of human thinking are taken from other books such as Thinking Fast and Slow, but this puts them all in one place without having to relive someone's entire academic research career. Stories about poker players are more interesting. The biggest point that stuck with me (that I hadn't read elsewhere) is that life is like poker, not chess. In chess, perfect moves lead to the desired outcome. You make a mistake, you lose. There are too many factors and random chances for real life to work that way. A fair amount of the time, you make a good decision and experience a bad outcome and vice versa. The strategy here is to weigh the likelihood of the outcomes with the investment (bet) and quantity of bets to achieve an overall level of success on average. It also covers the shortcomings of default human logic and ways to improve the quality of your decisions.
Stay away from her other book How to Decide. From what I understand it was originally supposed to be a workbook for Thinking In Bets, but the publisher talked her into making it into another book despite it covering the same ground.
The author is a huge scam artist, one of the many insiders who stole money in the ponzi FullTilt Poker scheme on black Friday. Kinda sickening she has an audience tbh
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The author is a huge scam artist, one of the many insiders who stole money in the ponzi FullTilt Poker scheme on black Friday. Kinda sickening she has an audience tbh
I feel like that's her platform. When you don't have all the facts about which scam to go with, diversify with multiple scams. And per her other book on knowing when to quit….just before you can be blamed for the scams.
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https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/...ng-in-bets
Our community has rated this post as helpful. If you agree, why not thank Tozmo
Our community has rated this post as helpful. If you agree, why not thank rajiv
Stay away from her other book How to Decide. From what I understand it was originally supposed to be a workbook for Thinking In Bets, but the publisher talked her into making it into another book despite it covering the same ground.
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I missed the 3 dots button for the download. Anything like the 3 seashells from Demolition Man?
The decision fatigue I face at work daily is dragging me down and I really need to actually learn how to get better at making decisions.
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