Joined Dec 2007
L6: Expert
Forum Thread
ticking time bomb for cryptos
January 16, 2021 at
09:57 AM
Thread Details
Last Edited by Kouskous44 January 18, 2021 at 08:19 AM
Thoughts on this article?
I understand a lot of pro-crypto have their biases especially due to their exposures. however having experienced the housing crisis/gfc in 2007, I understand the unwinding of CDOs, CMOs, synthetics, etc. and when the liquidity dried up. The only reason the global economy didn't collapse was due to Central banks stepping in and injecting/providing liquidity. I wonder if this would happen for decentralized cryptos and have my doubts.
A lot of noise is being made about bitcoin running up to 100k+, but I think everyone thinks its a party until the music stops and exchanges run out of fiat or become insolvent with the demise of tether. I never realized the float was that large and think this is a huge black swan event.
I don't think its a crypto "killer" and see value in blockchain tech, but the collapse can cause a massive price shock and am concerned for those that are levered using money out of their retirement accounts or taking loans against their homes. Sure there is a possibility it may go on for a few more days or even years, and people in the ecosystem may say ill pull the money out before.... many said the same with other investments also before other collapses and were not able to do so.
Crashes happen when people least expect it.
https://crypto-anonymous-2021.med...dcf7
I understand a lot of pro-crypto have their biases especially due to their exposures. however having experienced the housing crisis/gfc in 2007, I understand the unwinding of CDOs, CMOs, synthetics, etc. and when the liquidity dried up. The only reason the global economy didn't collapse was due to Central banks stepping in and injecting/providing liquidity. I wonder if this would happen for decentralized cryptos and have my doubts.
A lot of noise is being made about bitcoin running up to 100k+, but I think everyone thinks its a party until the music stops and exchanges run out of fiat or become insolvent with the demise of tether. I never realized the float was that large and think this is a huge black swan event.
I don't think its a crypto "killer" and see value in blockchain tech, but the collapse can cause a massive price shock and am concerned for those that are levered using money out of their retirement accounts or taking loans against their homes. Sure there is a possibility it may go on for a few more days or even years, and people in the ecosystem may say ill pull the money out before.... many said the same with other investments also before other collapses and were not able to do so.
Crashes happen when people least expect it.
https://crypto-anonymous-2021.med...dcf7
71 Comments
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So, we are back to February? Oh nos.
A week ago, I posted on my twitter feed that 30k was in play.
Guess what number we bounced from....on the nose?
You also told people it will hover around 60k-64k. If anyone listened, they would be deep in the red.
I said it might have a bounce and then drop so I'm right? Ill also say it will crash over 70% eventually and i could say i was right later too. 😉
You can do what you want with your own investments, but to tell people this is riskless and to have your entire portfolio in crypto is silly.
You also told people it will hover around 60k-64k. If anyone listened, they would be deep in the red.
I said it might have a bounce and then drop so I'm right? Ill also say it will crash over 70% eventually and i could say i was right later too. 😉
You can do what you want with your own investments, but to tell people this is riskless and to have your entire portfolio in crypto is silly.
There was also the dot.com bubble
1. BTC again at ATH
2. TSLA at ATH
3. Elon richest person in the world (who's intellect got called out...)
4. TSLA has made $1 Bil from BTC
5. TSLA is a part of S&P
6. All of our boomer ports with S&P and total market exposure, now have some exposure to crypto through TSLA.
Disclosures: I have very little crypto as a portion of my net worth (play money). I own a lot of Tesla stock (sitting at a +1,100% gain in taxable account). And, I have a large portion of net worth in VTI & VOO.
Although I've been trading crypto on/off since 2017, I haven't put in as much as I probably should have by now. It's just another avenue of investment/storage of currency which I don't have the time to really follow as closely as I'd want. It's also incredibly annoying to transact with. Anyone who says otherwise is lying off their ass. I have basically every major wallet, or major crypto site access you can think of (even using VPNs if I have to, etc). Mostly it just takes too long if ever doing so with BTC, and then the crappier/faster coins are always fluctuating way too much to be considered usable. Transactional expenses are also absurdly high as hell - if using anything worth owning like BTC or ETH.
And look what this advice told people to do. 🤔
Not against a small allocation but diversification is key. No one has a crystal ball and if you tell people to go all in you are doing a disservice to new investors.
Crypto is a zero sum game and eventually someone has to dump on someone.
Not against a small allocation but diversification is key. No one has a crystal ball and if you tell people to go all in you are doing a disservice to new investors.
Crypto is a zero sum game and eventually someone has to dump on someone.
FOMO is bad.
I took out an advance on two credit cards to buy bitcoin in the $20k range.
Go buy the dip this week, we might see $53k. Could have a super spike down to $48k for an hour or less. This is a perfect time to stack your Sats. But, I'm guessing you will never be a whole-coiner.
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FOMO is bad.
I took out an advance on two credit cards to buy bitcoin in the $20k range.
Go buy the dip this week, we might see $53k. Could have a super spike down to $48k for an hour or less. This is a perfect time to stack your Sats. But, I'm guessing you will never be a whole-coiner.
Right. Interesting word play to shill and then a double meaning excuse. And you also never said to go all in? You dont think this tether prop up will never implode?
Don't sucker others to dump your bag.
If you want to get people interested give reasonable advice with proper risk management.
Don't sucker others to dump your bag.
If you want to get people interested give reasonable advice with proper risk management.
Anyway, want some advice? Educate yourself.
Read this:
https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-...684832720/
Read this:
https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-St...07BPM3GZQ/
Follow Lyn Alden:
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
Great article she wrote this week on her webpage:
https://www.lynalden.co
If you read all that and research where it leads you, I think you will start to see the lack of risk in bitcoin.
Anyway, want some advice? Educate yourself.
Read this:
https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-...684832720/
Read this:
https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-St...07BPM3GZQ/
Follow Lyn Alden:
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
Great article she wrote this week on her webpage:
https://www.lynalden.co
If you read all that and research where it leads you, I think you will start to see the lack of risk in bitcoin.
Also get an advance education in finance and learn behavioral finance and game theory. Throw in a CFA and CAIA designation as well.
Much more than a few select books that can be twisted to a preferred narrative.
You claim to be so wise investing in crypto since 2016 and yet you have a low credit to max and are shilling on SD? Sorry bud, facts and your credibility don't add up.
Much more than a few select books that can be twisted to a preferred narrative.
You claim to be so wise investing in crypto since 2016 and yet you have a low credit to max and are shilling on SD? Sorry bud, facts and your credibility don't add up.
You continually try and twist my words. Did I say you need to read JUST those things? No, I said start with those and research where they lead you and "you will start to see.."
I'm sorry you are watching your investments get 10x'd by bitcoin. You'll understand, eventually.
You continually try and twist my words. Did I say you need to read JUST those things? No, I said start with those and research where they lead you and "you will start to see.."
I'm sorry you are watching your investments get 10x'd by bitcoin. You'll understand, eventually.
Look up CAIA. Don't claim what you don't have experience in