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Unfortunately that's not how it works. Savings account rates (and other interest-bearing products) are based on various dated bond yields as well as interest rates they charge clients for loan products (which are correlated). These don't magically change based on what the Fed does, but on what they're expected to do. The 75bps rate hike was already priced into bond yields (taking yield curve flattening aside). What wasn't priced in, and why savings rates are higher now than they were, say, a year or two ago, is precisely the divergence from expectation at that time: The Fed guidance indicated fewer hikes of less amounts (0-25bps) and have exceeded that..but that was only really known over the last few months as they consistently shift guidance, or the "target rate" via a dot plot.
The point I'm making is, if the Fed meets expectations (currently 50bps-50bps-25bps-pause) over the next 4 meetings, the rates will theoretically stay where they are.
To use a real-world example, it's the same reason why mortgage rates have been rising gradually and why they didn't suddenly rise 75bps yesterday or today upon the Fed hike announcement. It's because it was already priced in.
Edit: Note, I'm leaving quite a bit of nuance and detail out of this and am not picking on you in particular. I just see quite a bit of misunderstanding about how consumer interest rate products react to Fed overnight rate hikes and when.
Current Bonds & CD Rates[fidelity.com]
3 month treasuries are above 4% now. 2 year CDs will pay 5%. There's a really narrow niche of people who are well served by choosing a savings account over a CD or a treasury right now.
I started putting my hysa cash into Treasury bills this week, most are paying 4%, you can buy 1 month up to 2 year durations I think, and you can set them up to reinvest when they expire
I started putting my hysa cash into Treasury bills this week, most are paying 4%, you can buy 1 month up to 2 year durations I think, and you can set them up to reinvest when they expire
How do you easily buy treasuries? The US Treasury direct web site is horribly confusing to buy them...
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I started putting my hysa cash into Treasury bills this week, most are paying 4%, you can buy 1 month up to 2 year durations I think, and you can set them up to reinvest when they expire
Don't forget that treasuries aren't taxed at the state or local level. Depending on where you live that can juice your return nicely. Here in Colorado, there's a ~4.5% income tax. That makes a 4% treasury yield the same (after-tax) as a ~4.2% interest rate from a CD or savings account.
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I use Fidelity. You can set up an account for free and they don't charge commissions trading treasuries. I like their interface as well.
Ah, whats strange is on US Treasury Direct, you pick the auction date and 13 week T-Bill, but it says nothing about what your interest rate will be for the 13 week T-Bill?
Is the YTM number the interest rate, basically on the T-bill?
Last edited by blahbooboo2 November 3, 2022 at 12:55 PM.
Ah, whats strange is on US Treasury Direct, you pick the auction date and 13 week T-Bill, but it says nothing about what your interest rate will be for the 13 week T-Bill?
Is the YTM number the interest rate, basically on the T-bill?
YTM = yield-to-maturity
T-Bills don't pay interest. Instead they're sold for less than face value. e.g. 1 year T-bill sells for $97 and will be worth $100 at maturity. Note that that different ($100-$97=$3) counts as interest when the T-bill matures, for the purposes of taxes.
Personally, I've only ever bought treasuries at auction once. I think the secondary market is way easier to use and I'm not aware of any advantage gained by going the auction route. You'll see on the secondary market that treasury notes and treasury bills are mixed together.
YTM = yield-to-maturity
T-Bills don't pay interest. Instead they're sold for less than face value. e.g. 1 year T-bill sells for $97 and will be worth $100 at maturity. Note that that different ($100-$97=$3) counts as interest when the T-bill matures, for the purposes of taxes.
Personally, I've only ever bought treasuries at auction once. I think the secondary market is way easier to use and I'm not aware of any advantage gained by going the auction route. You'll see on the secondary market that treasury notes and treasury bills are mixed together.
Very helpful thank you. I see etrade and Schwab sell T-Bills but they also say auction date of 11-7-2022, so you dont get guaranttee of interest until the auction right?
Don't forget that treasuries aren't taxed at the state or local level. Depending on where you live that can juice your return nicely. Here in Colorado, there's a ~4.5% income tax. That makes a 4% treasury yield the same (after-tax) as a ~4.2% interest rate from a CD or savings account.
Also, investopedia says "The interest income from T-bills is exempt from state and local income taxes. However, the interest income is subject to federal income tax. "
Very helpful thank you. I see etrade and Schwab sell T-Bills but they also say auction date of 11-7-2022, so you dont get guaranttee of interest until the auction right?
There's no guarantee of the rate, but it's not going to be a huge surprise. Again, I find it's a lot easier to just buy treasuries on the secondary market. If you want a set-it-and-forget-it approach, then there might be some ways to do that, but I'm not aware of it. To an extent that's really just what ETFs like SGOV and BILS are doing.
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The point I'm making is, if the Fed meets expectations (currently 50bps-50bps-25bps-pause) over the next 4 meetings, the rates will theoretically stay where they are.
To use a real-world example, it's the same reason why mortgage rates have been rising gradually and why they didn't suddenly rise 75bps yesterday or today upon the Fed hike announcement. It's because it was already priced in.
Edit: Note, I'm leaving quite a bit of nuance and detail out of this and am not picking on you in particular. I just see quite a bit of misunderstanding about how consumer interest rate products react to Fed overnight rate hikes and when.
Source: Work in finance
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3 month treasuries are above 4% now. 2 year CDs will pay 5%. There's a really narrow niche of people who are well served by choosing a savings account over a CD or a treasury right now.
DollarSavingsDirect.com
My Ally savings account just went up to 2.5%. They're increasing it like every two weeks. Insane.
Ally has lagged for years on interest rate increases but super fast to lower them and not tell you. Crappy place.
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Is the YTM number the interest rate, basically on the T-bill?
Is the YTM number the interest rate, basically on the T-bill?
T-Bills don't pay interest. Instead they're sold for less than face value. e.g. 1 year T-bill sells for $97 and will be worth $100 at maturity. Note that that different ($100-$97=$3) counts as interest when the T-bill matures, for the purposes of taxes.
Personally, I've only ever bought treasuries at auction once. I think the secondary market is way easier to use and I'm not aware of any advantage gained by going the auction route. You'll see on the secondary market that treasury notes and treasury bills are mixed together.
T-Bills don't pay interest. Instead they're sold for less than face value. e.g. 1 year T-bill sells for $97 and will be worth $100 at maturity. Note that that different ($100-$97=$3) counts as interest when the T-bill matures, for the purposes of taxes.
Personally, I've only ever bought treasuries at auction once. I think the secondary market is way easier to use and I'm not aware of any advantage gained by going the auction route. You'll see on the secondary market that treasury notes and treasury bills are mixed together.
Also, investopedia says "The interest income from T-bills is exempt from state and local income taxes. However, the interest income is subject to federal income tax. "
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