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expiredphoinix | Staff posted Feb 19, 2025 09:52 AM
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expiredphoinix | Staff posted Feb 19, 2025 09:52 AM

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (eBook)

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Various Retailers have Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (eBook) by Annie Duke on sale for $1.99.

Thanks to Deal Hunter phoinix for sharing this deal.

Available from:About this Book:
  • Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
  • Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
  • By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Editor's Notes

Written by citan359 | Staff
  • About this Deal:
    • Please see the original post for additional details & give the WIKI and additional forum comments a read for helpful discussion.
  • About this Product:
    • Rated 4.3 out of 5 stars at Amazon based on over 4,650 customer reviews.
  • About this Store:

Original Post

Written by phoinix | Staff
Product Info
Community Notes
About the Poster
Deal Details
Product Info
Community Notes
About the Poster
Various Retailers have Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (eBook) by Annie Duke on sale for $1.99.

Thanks to Deal Hunter phoinix for sharing this deal.

Available from:About this Book:
  • Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
  • Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
  • By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Editor's Notes

Written by citan359 | Staff
  • About this Deal:
    • Please see the original post for additional details & give the WIKI and additional forum comments a read for helpful discussion.
  • About this Product:
    • Rated 4.3 out of 5 stars at Amazon based on over 4,650 customer reviews.
  • About this Store:

Original Post

Written by phoinix | Staff

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Top Comments

rajiv
165 Posts
133 Reputation
Tozmo
817 Posts
168 Reputation
I really wanted to like this book, especially on the heels of Never Split the Difference. To me, it didn't have a lot of impact because the practical, every day strategies of shifting thought process to managing/negotiating "the unknowns" weren't clear. I recommend the book, in the hopes that you might get something out of it, as it isn't "bad." Just don't expect a direct application of poker theory to daily thinking; more of a thought experiment and top level readjustment piece.

16 Comments

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Feb 19, 2025 02:30 PM
11 Posts
Joined Sep 2014
spiritdonutFeb 19, 2025 02:30 PM
11 Posts
Also on the Kobo bookstore for the same price

https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/...ng-in-bets
Feb 19, 2025 02:32 PM
817 Posts
Joined Apr 2012
TozmoFeb 19, 2025 02:32 PM
817 Posts

Our community has rated this post as helpful. If you agree, why not thank Tozmo

I really wanted to like this book, especially on the heels of Never Split the Difference. To me, it didn't have a lot of impact because the practical, every day strategies of shifting thought process to managing/negotiating "the unknowns" weren't clear. I recommend the book, in the hopes that you might get something out of it, as it isn't "bad." Just don't expect a direct application of poker theory to daily thinking; more of a thought experiment and top level readjustment piece.
1
Feb 19, 2025 02:38 PM
165 Posts
Joined Oct 2003
rajivFeb 19, 2025 02:38 PM
165 Posts

Our community has rated this post as helpful. If you agree, why not thank rajiv

https://archive.org/details/20211...ew=theater
2
1
Feb 19, 2025 02:58 PM
88 Posts
Joined Jul 2019
MagentaLumber9827Feb 19, 2025 02:58 PM
88 Posts
I just finished reading one of her other books, Quit. It was great - easy to read, based on lots of research with extensive references.
Feb 19, 2025 03:22 PM
192 Posts
Joined Dec 2006
yuagFeb 19, 2025 03:22 PM
192 Posts
My goodness there have been a lot of really good $2 book deals these past 3-4 days. My Google Survey balance has gone down quite a bit these past few days. Happy to add this one to the backlog. I've enjoyed listening to her on many podcasts, and she references this book a lot during the interviews.
Feb 19, 2025 03:38 PM
301 Posts
Joined Dec 2007
BadMouthFeb 19, 2025 03:38 PM
301 Posts
I liked this book. A lot of the shortcomings of human thinking are taken from other books such as Thinking Fast and Slow, but this puts them all in one place without having to relive someone's entire academic research career. Stories about poker players are more interesting. The biggest point that stuck with me (that I hadn't read elsewhere) is that life is like poker, not chess. In chess, perfect moves lead to the desired outcome. You make a mistake, you lose. There are too many factors and random chances for real life to work that way. A fair amount of the time, you make a good decision and experience a bad outcome and vice versa. The strategy here is to weigh the likelihood of the outcomes with the investment (bet) and quantity of bets to achieve an overall level of success on average. It also covers the shortcomings of default human logic and ways to improve the quality of your decisions.
Stay away from her other book How to Decide. From what I understand it was originally supposed to be a workbook for Thinking In Bets, but the publisher talked her into making it into another book despite it covering the same ground.
Feb 19, 2025 03:41 PM
8 Posts
Joined Sep 2017
TylerC3012Feb 19, 2025 03:41 PM
8 Posts
Quit was an excellent book. I liked this one as well, just not as much as Quit. Annie Duke is a fascinating person and a great read.

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Feb 19, 2025 03:54 PM
1,115 Posts
Joined Apr 2012
kozgFeb 19, 2025 03:54 PM
1,115 Posts
Quote from rajiv :
https://archive.org/details/20211...ew=theater [archive.org]
Nice! Any way to download?
Feb 19, 2025 05:51 PM
626 Posts
Joined Nov 2013
PinakoFeb 19, 2025 05:51 PM
626 Posts
Quote from kozg :
Nice! Any way to download?
You click the download button, then choose either PDF or ePub. I had problems with this ePub so I'd recommend the PDF.
Feb 19, 2025 05:52 PM
4,603 Posts
Joined Jul 2006
bjsguessFeb 19, 2025 05:52 PM
4,603 Posts
Another vote for "I thought it was just OK". Nothing wrong with it. Just didn't have the impact of other similar books that I've read.
Feb 19, 2025 06:29 PM
1,115 Posts
Joined Apr 2012
kozgFeb 19, 2025 06:29 PM
1,115 Posts
Quote from Pinako :
You click the download button, then choose either PDF or ePub. I had problems with this ePub so I'd recommend the PDF.
Thanks! I didn't see those buttons. Will try another browser.

I missed the 3 dots button for the download. Anything like the 3 seashells from Demolition Man?
Last edited by kozg February 19, 2025 at 10:34 AM.
Feb 19, 2025 07:23 PM
1,050 Posts
Joined Jul 2018
RaccoonishFeb 19, 2025 07:23 PM
1,050 Posts
Quote from rajiv :
https://archive.org/details/20211...ew=theater
I would NEVER!!!
Feb 19, 2025 07:25 PM
1,050 Posts
Joined Jul 2018
RaccoonishFeb 19, 2025 07:25 PM
1,050 Posts
Quote from bjsguess :
Another vote for "I thought it was just OK". Nothing wrong with it. Just didn't have the impact of other similar books that I've read.
Any book on decision making that you liked and can recommend?

The decision fatigue I face at work daily is dragging me down and I really need to actually learn how to get better at making decisions.
Feb 19, 2025 08:34 PM
1,401 Posts
Joined Jul 2010
MadJukesFeb 19, 2025 08:34 PM
1,401 Posts
The author is a huge scam artist, one of the many insiders who stole money in the ponzi FullTilt Poker scheme on black Friday. Kinda sickening she has an audience tbh

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Pro
Feb 19, 2025 08:46 PM
2,012 Posts
Joined Dec 2005
nohomers1
Pro
Feb 19, 2025 08:46 PM
2,012 Posts
Quote from MadJukes :
The author is a huge scam artist, one of the many insiders who stole money in the ponzi FullTilt Poker scheme on black Friday. Kinda sickening she has an audience tbh
I feel like that's her platform. When you don't have all the facts about which scam to go with, diversify with multiple scams. And per her other book on knowing when to quit….just before you can be blamed for the scams.

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