Joined Aug 2016
L5: Journeyman
Forum Thread
Stocking up for Corona virus
March 1, 2020 at
10:57 AM
in
Chat
Hey guys,
Is anyone stocking up on "survival items" in fear of the Corona virus? So far I haven't, but I see a lot of the supermarkets empty from people like that here. Are the fears warranted, should I do the same?
Is anyone stocking up on "survival items" in fear of the Corona virus? So far I haven't, but I see a lot of the supermarkets empty from people like that here. Are the fears warranted, should I do the same?
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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/0...index.html [cnn.com]
For SDers, here's the recipe to make your own hand sanitizer.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hand...-your-own/ [cbsnews.com]
It's just isopropyl alcohol, like 50 cents a pint
I use it on the litter boxes to kill the bacteria that makes the boxes smell bad, it's normally less than $2.50 at the grocery store.
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The Washington state people who died in US didn't even come in contact with covid people.
Somebody's not telling the truth.
At some point, provided the risk pool stays consistent (e.g. it doesn't infect more, say, nursing homes than high schools), the mortality rate should plateau somewhere, not necessarily drop off or decline. So the other issue is that the mortality statistics are HEAVILY skewed to 70+ - mortality for <20 or so is basically zero, then it ticks up to ~ 0.4% up to the 60's or so, then climbs up to 15%+ for 80+ year olds (this data is mostly from China, early on in the epidemic, which we now know was more severe than it is currently). So if the virus has infected more elderly than young, the "bulk" mortality will be relatively high.
The CDC uses estimates to come up with that figure for the flu ~ 0.1%, because not everyone that comes down with the flu goes into the Dr. and gets tested. To show how squirrely the data can be, in CT they just reported that 65 people have died from the flu in the state thus far, with 2454 hospitalizations and 11149 positive tests. If you run those numbers you'd come up with ~ 0.58% mortality and 22% hospitalization!
The death rate is probably not as high as it appears now due to undercounting of cases that are minimally symptomatic. But it is still likely to be many times higher than flu, which is about 0.1%, and many more people are going to contract Covid-19 because no one has immunity so a large percentage of those exposed will contract the disease. Also, because there is essentially zero herd immunity, many more people will be exposed and thus infected. There is a significant chance there will be upwards of half a million deaths in the US from this crap. I hope strongly I am wrong about this, but it scares me.
The rate of infection will be approximately the same as it is now, but the percent who become infected will be high. Thus, the number of people who get very sick or die will be high.
This is overwhelming the medical system in places where it is getting out of hand like Wuhan, Italy, and Iran. It is only a matter of a short time before it hits the US hard. There are not going to be enough hospital beds and likely not nearly enough ICU beds and ventilators for all the people who are going to need them unless we start instituting "social distancing" right now in the US. That means no person to person contact unless absolutely necessary, working from home if at all possible, avoiding public transit if at all possible, shopping rarely, avoiding restaurants, closing schools with online classes instead, avoiding going to church (look how it spread in South Korea). We need to slow this down to ameliorate the overload on the hospital system as well as give us a chance to catch up on finding possible anti-viral treatments and, ultimately, a vaccine. A vaccine is at lest a year away, realistically, despite the "hunches" of the incompetent.
There is no way the US could be as draconian as the Chinese have been with limiting spread. It is a true "1984" big brother situation there, with mandatory electronic app monitoring of movement, etc.
My friends, get yourself at least a three month supply of medications in case of supply chain interruptions in China or the US. Avoid interpersonal contact. Wash your hands or use antiseptic cleaner frequently.
Good luck everyone.
The oft-cited R0 value [livescience.com] reflects how many people the average person with the disease infects; it's not a constant number and is only a reflection of historical activity.
Please, please please stop the hysterics. You're doing more harm than the actual virus [foxnews.com].
Local Walgreens has storage containers in the lot. Got some extra TP and OTC meds online shipped to their store. Others must have done the same.
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