Hard to justify a CD with penalty at 4.6% when a no penalty at 4.4% exists (Sallie Mae/Savebetter). Give yourself the flexibility/liquidity option and give up the 0.2%, seems like the right move.
Well, step 1 is maxing out the i-bond contribution ($10k/pp/py) if you haven't done that, before May when the new rate will certainly be lower. So, do that first for your first $10k.
Edit: ^ The above has an argument against it depending on your view of how Feb-Apr CPI will impact the inflation component of the next i-bond rates. YMMV.
You didn't miss the boat at all btw, I just think this is a good time to buy. There's a lot of laymen inflationary talk and fearmongering going on but sharp traders who actually trade bonds are already looking ahead towards deflation here, and the retail interest-bearing products are going to catch up to that sentiment imo.
Anyway, in order after i-bonds if you don't need the money for 1-2 years:
1. 27-month (a little over 2 years but still) CD posted on SD today that was at 5%
2. 12-month t-bill (~4.65% or so, NOTE: This may be #1 if you live in a high income tax state)
3. CD like the one here for 4.6%
4. No-penalty CD at SallieMae for 4.4%
I actually think the liquidity with the SallieMae CD is worth the 0.2% as I said in my first comment, for the opportunity cost alone. I would rank it ahead of this Ally CD but curated it based on what you said. You never know what could open up and this is a hedge against rates rising higher due to unforeseen wage growth or other inflationary (from a CPE perspective) components that the Fed would use to justify more hikes than anticipated/priced in. Just my 2c, but anyway, buy the ibonds first this quarter.
I think you're thinking about this correctly. A 50bp move from the current rate isn't going to make a material difference in 5y CD yields, which seem to be between 4.3% and 4.5% at the time of writing. Instead, consider what WILL drive them:
1. The dot plot released in subsequent Fed meetings where Fed members provide forward guidance on the terminal rate.
2. The Fed's forecast of core inflation through 2024 and beyond (I believe they're looking at 3.1% long-run, but I might be off on that, don't want to check right now)
3. How 2-5y yields react to the above 2 points
4. How breakevens are pricing cuts moving forward. When, for how long, and how much as well as how aggressively.
With all that in mind, and this is really more of a thought exercise from a trading perspective than for consumers holding these products to maturity, I think the current 5y CD rates will have a positive real return as early as Q3 2024. I think less so of the US 5y mostly because it's trading at 3.5%, but even then I'd probably be long the US 5y rather than short.
I'm not intimately familiar with these banks' business models but a few of these rates, at a surface level, give off an "asleep at the wheel" vibe. The short bond trade is super crowded across funds and crowded trades usually don't go well.
If I were specifically in the market for 5y CDs (I'm not) I'd be buying them now, and I think this will be close to, if not the, secular terminal rate for this cycle.
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You're right, brokers don't have a fiduciary responsibility, so you don't want a broker. Brokers can receive commissions on the investment products they sell to investors. Brokers are only held to the suitability standard which means brokers recommend investments they believe are suitable and which does not necessarily mean their recommendations are what is best for the investor. Fiduciary advisors on the other hand can only be paid through fee-based compensation.
My advisor's compensation was fee based. Would have to look at paper work to see if it says he had a fiduciary responsibility. He definitely did not act in my best interest. Refusing to put anything in writing. Refusing to sell or buy when I told him to. No trade requests allowed in writing or electronically. He was in control and I had no say. Unfortunately went with him because of relative and found out later that other people have complained and he did the same thing to them. He was given a slap on the wrist. Tried to sell me junk corporate bonds. Refusing to explain anything. Have very little recourse as there is no paper trail.
On the cover of Bloomberg and Barrons for being a great financial advisor as he would tell me over and over
Whenever Creepto gets pumped, you got all these stupid worthless idiots desperately trying to speed run into homelessness by gambling on a scam.
Worse thing about it is that we all have to list to your worthless cult like behavior. Shouldn't you be off somewhere on reddit finding more ways to get more idiots to agree with you?
You can find CFPs in your area by specialty at FPA PlannerSearch, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, the Garrett Planning Network, and the XY Planning Network. Those websites list only planners who are so-called fiduciaries, which means they're obligated to put your financial interests above their own. To be extra sure, some experts recommend asking your planner to commit to fiduciary status in writing.
Figure Out the Costs
Restrict your search to fee-only advisers, who charge for advice and asset management and don't receive commissions by selling you financial products.
Fee-only advisers use a variety of payment models, says Roxanne Martens, a financial adviser with CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kan. Some charge an hourly rate, which can range from $100 to $400. Many of the same planners will charge a flat fee for a predetermined bundle of services—an average of $2,400 to evaluate your financial life and map out a comprehensive long-term plan, according to a 2019 study. These models tend to work best if you're looking for help with a specific issue or a plan that you'll carry out on your own, possibly with periodic check-ins.
Other advisers charge clients a percentage of assets under management each year. Their rates generally range from 0.6 to 1.2 percent of the portfolio size, annually. The percentage is often lower for larger account balances, so this model is generally most cost-effective for investors with more assets and more complicated financial lives. Some planners use only the percentage model and—note—will take you on as a client only if your portfolio meets their minimum.
Vet the Contenders
Once you've compiled a list of candidates, confirm their credentials through the CFP Board. And make sure no disciplinary actions have been taken against them by going to the Securities and Exchange Commission's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure site.
Then schedule a time to speak with two or three of the most promising candidates, ideally in person. Many good financial advisers offer a free initial consultation. Make sure they have experience working with clients in similar circumstances. (Ask them to describe how they handled a situation like yours.) This may be the start of a long relationship, one that is likely to touch on very personal issues. So be sure they communicate clearly and listen well, and will be able to keep you motivated to stick to your long-term plans.
My advisor's compensation was fee based. Would have to look at paper work to see if it says he had a fiduciary responsibility. He definitely did not act in my best interest. Refusing to put anything in writing. Refusing to sell or buy when I told him to. No trade requests allowed in writing or electronically. He was in control and I had no say. Unfortunately went with him because of relative and found out later that other people have complained and he did the same thing to them. He was given a slap on the wrist. Tried to sell me junk corporate bonds. Refusing to explain anything. Have very little recourse as there is no paper trail.
On the cover of Bloomberg and Barrons for being a great financial advisor as he would tell me over and over
The person that is a fiduciary will tell you this up front at your first meeting and they will also inform you that they are required to disclose conflicts of interest.
The advantage of an Ally account vs most others is that the account can be opened in the name of a trust. Very few with decent rates have that capability.
What are the advantages of opening an account in the name of a trust?
I'd look into IBonds if you are willing to lock in for 12+months as this CD requires.
Future 6 month rate is unclear, and iBonds are restricted to only $10K per year for an inidividual. Based on current inflation rate data the next iBond rate reset could be 0%. So it's a bit restrictive and future rate outlook unclear.
You can find CFPs in your area by specialty at FPA PlannerSearch, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, the Garrett Planning Network, and the XY Planning Network. Those websites list only planners who are so-called fiduciaries, which means they're obligated to put your financial interests above their own. To be extra sure, some experts recommend asking your planner to commit to fiduciary status in writing.
Figure Out the Costs
Restrict your search to fee-only advisers, who charge for advice and asset management and don't receive commissions by selling you financial products.
Fee-only advisers use a variety of payment models, says Roxanne Martens, a financial adviser with CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kan. Some charge an hourly rate, which can range from $100 to $400. Many of the same planners will charge a flat fee for a predetermined bundle of services—an average of $2,400 to evaluate your financial life and map out a comprehensive long-term plan, according to a 2019 study. These models tend to work best if you're looking for help with a specific issue or a plan that you'll carry out on your own, possibly with periodic check-ins.
Other advisers charge clients a percentage of assets under management each year. Their rates generally range from 0.6 to 1.2 percent of the portfolio size, annually. The percentage is often lower for larger account balances, so this model is generally most cost-effective for investors with more assets and more complicated financial lives. Some planners use only the percentage model and—note—will take you on as a client only if your portfolio meets their minimum.
Vet the Contenders
Once you've compiled a list of candidates, confirm their credentials through the CFP Board. And make sure no disciplinary actions have been taken against them by going to the Securities and Exchange Commission's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure site.
Then schedule a time to speak with two or three of the most promising candidates, ideally in person. Many good financial advisers offer a free initial consultation. Make sure they have experience working with clients in similar circumstances. (Ask them to describe how they handled a situation like yours.) This may be the start of a long relationship, one that is likely to touch on very personal issues. So be sure they communicate clearly and listen well, and will be able to keep you motivated to stick to your long-term plans.
Thank you for taking the time to post this. If I decide to go back to an advisor I will do more due diligence. Funny thing is my relative sold me on this person because the relative told me that during the financial crises they didn't loose any money with this advisor. During this year when things were not going well what they said was that they didn't loose as much as other people.
All I know is that if I had just bough an S&P ETF or an entire market ETF like VTI I would be in a much better place. Everyone's experience is different.
The person that is a fiduciary will tell you this up front at your first meeting and they will also inform you that they are required to disclose conflicts of interest.
Thank you for taking the time to post this. If I decide to go back to an advisor I will do more due diligence. Funny thing is my relative sold me on this person because the relative told me that during the financial crises they didn't loose any money with this advisor. During this year when things were not going well what they said was that they didn't loose as much as other people.
All I know is that if I had just bough an S&P ETF or an entire market ETF like VTI I would be in a much better place. Everyone's experience is different.
Yeah, it's a tough market the past year or so and and it may go lower.
I was up almost up 33% in 2022 and if we go into a bad recession this year, I could lose most of last year's gains.
Yeah, it's a tough market the past year or so and and it may go lower.
I was up almost up 33% in 2022 and if we go into a bad recession this year, I could lose most of last year's gains.
We almost cancel each other out. I was down 30% in 2022. Would have used you as my financial advisor :-). Ironically, as I was pulling my money, my guy said from now on I will take gains when the market goes up. Something he didn't do in 2022. Thus my lack of confidence in him. Don't want to complain to much as I still consider myself fortunate and will feel better in fixed rate securities.
Never would have thought of T-bills if not for this site. Probably bought too many brokered CDs. Thanks to the videos you posted I now realize the very limited market for the secondary market of brokered CDs so will just hold them till maturation. Now am doing a T-bill ladder. Looking to make things simple and have peace of mind and this has helped a great deal.
What are the advantages of opening an account in the name of a trust?
One reason is that in case of death of the grantor of the trust, the trustees or successor trustees have full and immediate access to the account and the funds.
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Edit: ^ The above has an argument against it depending on your view of how Feb-Apr CPI will impact the inflation component of the next i-bond rates. YMMV.
You didn't miss the boat at all btw, I just think this is a good time to buy. There's a lot of laymen inflationary talk and fearmongering going on but sharp traders who actually trade bonds are already looking ahead towards deflation here, and the retail interest-bearing products are going to catch up to that sentiment imo.
Anyway, in order after i-bonds if you don't need the money for 1-2 years:
1. 27-month (a little over 2 years but still) CD posted on SD today that was at 5%
2. 12-month t-bill (~4.65% or so, NOTE: This may be #1 if you live in a high income tax state)
3. CD like the one here for 4.6%
4. No-penalty CD at SallieMae for 4.4%
I actually think the liquidity with the SallieMae CD is worth the 0.2% as I said in my first comment, for the opportunity cost alone. I would rank it ahead of this Ally CD but curated it based on what you said. You never know what could open up and this is a hedge against rates rising higher due to unforeseen wage growth or other inflationary (from a CPE perspective) components that the Fed would use to justify more hikes than anticipated/priced in. Just my 2c, but anyway, buy the ibonds first this quarter.
1. The dot plot released in subsequent Fed meetings where Fed members provide forward guidance on the terminal rate.
2. The Fed's forecast of core inflation through 2024 and beyond (I believe they're looking at 3.1% long-run, but I might be off on that, don't want to check right now)
3. How 2-5y yields react to the above 2 points
4. How breakevens are pricing cuts moving forward. When, for how long, and how much as well as how aggressively.
With all that in mind, and this is really more of a thought exercise from a trading perspective than for consumers holding these products to maturity, I think the current 5y CD rates will have a positive real return as early as Q3 2024. I think less so of the US 5y mostly because it's trading at 3.5%, but even then I'd probably be long the US 5y rather than short.
I'm not intimately familiar with these banks' business models but a few of these rates, at a surface level, give off an "asleep at the wheel" vibe. The short bond trade is super crowded across funds and crowded trades usually don't go well.
If I were specifically in the market for 5y CDs (I'm not) I'd be buying them now, and I think this will be close to, if not the, secular terminal rate for this cycle.
Sign up for a Slickdeals account to remove this ad.
On the cover of Bloomberg and Barrons for being a great financial advisor as he would tell me over and over
Worse thing about it is that we all have to list to your worthless cult like behavior. Shouldn't you be off somewhere on reddit finding more ways to get more idiots to agree with you?
10/6/2022
You can find CFPs in your area by specialty at FPA PlannerSearch, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, the Garrett Planning Network, and the XY Planning Network. Those websites list only planners who are so-called fiduciaries, which means they're obligated to put your financial interests above their own. To be extra sure, some experts recommend asking your planner to commit to fiduciary status in writing.
Figure Out the Costs
Restrict your search to fee-only advisers, who charge for advice and asset management and don't receive commissions by selling you financial products.
Fee-only advisers use a variety of payment models, says Roxanne Martens, a financial adviser with CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kan. Some charge an hourly rate, which can range from $100 to $400. Many of the same planners will charge a flat fee for a predetermined bundle of services—an average of $2,400 to evaluate your financial life and map out a comprehensive long-term plan, according to a 2019 study. These models tend to work best if you're looking for help with a specific issue or a plan that you'll carry out on your own, possibly with periodic check-ins.
Other advisers charge clients a percentage of assets under management each year. Their rates generally range from 0.6 to 1.2 percent of the portfolio size, annually. The percentage is often lower for larger account balances, so this model is generally most cost-effective for investors with more assets and more complicated financial lives. Some planners use only the percentage model and—note—will take you on as a client only if your portfolio meets their minimum.
Vet the Contenders
Once you've compiled a list of candidates, confirm their credentials through the CFP Board. And make sure no disciplinary actions have been taken against them by going to the Securities and Exchange Commission's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure site.
Then schedule a time to speak with two or three of the most promising candidates, ideally in person. Many good financial advisers offer a free initial consultation. Make sure they have experience working with clients in similar circumstances. (Ask them to describe how they handled a situation like yours.) This may be the start of a long relationship, one that is likely to touch on very personal issues. So be sure they communicate clearly and listen well, and will be able to keep you motivated to stick to your long-term plans.
On the cover of Bloomberg and Barrons for being a great financial advisor as he would tell me over and over
Here's a good explanation of the differences
Know The Differences Between Brokers And Advisers: Suitability Vs. Fiduciary Standards [forbes.com]
What are the advantages of opening an account in the name of a trust?
Sign up for a Slickdeals account to remove this ad.
10/6/2022
You can find CFPs in your area by specialty at FPA PlannerSearch, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, the Garrett Planning Network, and the XY Planning Network. Those websites list only planners who are so-called fiduciaries, which means they're obligated to put your financial interests above their own. To be extra sure, some experts recommend asking your planner to commit to fiduciary status in writing.
Figure Out the Costs
Restrict your search to fee-only advisers, who charge for advice and asset management and don't receive commissions by selling you financial products.
Fee-only advisers use a variety of payment models, says Roxanne Martens, a financial adviser with CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kan. Some charge an hourly rate, which can range from $100 to $400. Many of the same planners will charge a flat fee for a predetermined bundle of services—an average of $2,400 to evaluate your financial life and map out a comprehensive long-term plan, according to a 2019 study. These models tend to work best if you're looking for help with a specific issue or a plan that you'll carry out on your own, possibly with periodic check-ins.
Other advisers charge clients a percentage of assets under management each year. Their rates generally range from 0.6 to 1.2 percent of the portfolio size, annually. The percentage is often lower for larger account balances, so this model is generally most cost-effective for investors with more assets and more complicated financial lives. Some planners use only the percentage model and—note—will take you on as a client only if your portfolio meets their minimum.
Vet the Contenders
Once you've compiled a list of candidates, confirm their credentials through the CFP Board. And make sure no disciplinary actions have been taken against them by going to the Securities and Exchange Commission's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure site.
Then schedule a time to speak with two or three of the most promising candidates, ideally in person. Many good financial advisers offer a free initial consultation. Make sure they have experience working with clients in similar circumstances. (Ask them to describe how they handled a situation like yours.) This may be the start of a long relationship, one that is likely to touch on very personal issues. So be sure they communicate clearly and listen well, and will be able to keep you motivated to stick to your long-term plans.
All I know is that if I had just bough an S&P ETF or an entire market ETF like VTI I would be in a much better place. Everyone's experience is different.
Here's a good explanation of the differences
Know The Differences Between Brokers And Advisers: Suitability Vs. Fiduciary Standards [forbes.com]
All I know is that if I had just bough an S&P ETF or an entire market ETF like VTI I would be in a much better place. Everyone's experience is different.
Yeah, it's a tough market the past year or so and and it may go lower.
I was up almost up 33% in 2022 and if we go into a bad recession this year, I could lose most of last year's gains.
NOT SLICK DELETE POST
I was up almost up 33% in 2022 and if we go into a bad recession this year, I could lose most of last year's gains.
Never would have thought of T-bills if not for this site. Probably bought too many brokered CDs. Thanks to the videos you posted I now realize the very limited market for the secondary market of brokered CDs so will just hold them till maturation. Now am doing a T-bill ladder. Looking to make things simple and have peace of mind and this has helped a great deal.
If I don't need money for 1-2 years, what are the best choices? I'm currently getting 4.2% in a Money Market but how long will it stay at those rates?
Is it better to look in 4.4% at Sallie Mae now, or keep riding the MM for more months, or buy a T-Bill, etc?
What are the smart people doing?
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