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US Treasury CMB 161-day bill. Expected yield 5.27%, may go higher

647 213 May 25, 2023 at 02:49 PM in Finance (7)
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Last Edited by zjs2k May 31, 2023 at 02:27 AM
+64 Deal Score
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NOTE:
The yields listed here are annualized (APY).
The CUSIP for this CMB is 912797FJ1.
Current expected yield according to Fidelity is 5.3% (May 26), 5.268% (May 27).

Final edit: the result was out (May 30): 5.562% (investment rate, equivalent to APY).

This thread was moved out of the "Hot Deals" forum (understandably. I don't think Treasury will give SD a cut for promoting their T-Bills Haha!). Despite received much less attention than the other Treasury threads, I hope everyone read this got some useful information (like the difference between CMB and T-bills, or there are bills called CMB). I can't vouch for anyone else's comments here, but I tried to be clear about things that I know, I assume, I guess or I don't know in my comments.

Final recommendation: continue to purchase the Bills of all durations as long as they remain high yields. At 5+% yield with essentially 0 risk, it makes the risky investment in stocks / bitcoin or similar becomes less and less attractive.

=======

Since Treasury's CMB doesn't have a fixed schedule, which leads to less competitive bids, which in turn **usually"" leads to higher yield. This 161-day bill announced today has an expected yield of 5.27% according to Fidelity. But it **could** be higher. Example: last week's 21-day bill estimated yield ~ 5.5% (can't remember exactly). The final yield was 6.3+%.

Note: you can only buy it through brokers. Fidelity allows multiples of $1000 ("1 bond"). ETrade is multiples of $5000.

Seepost #163771055 for additional info on ETrade (Thanks to Jayman007)

The auction day is May 30. Be sure to place the order before then. (Before 12 AM for non-competitive CMB. Brokers may stop take orders before then. So place order early.)

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/au.../upcoming/

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JonL4209
05-26-2023 at 01:17 AM.
05-26-2023 at 01:17 AM.
maybe I am too stupid, this instruction seems very hard for me...
certainly, there is a learning curve to start buying these bond

I never managed to even create an usdirect account... as they asked for some information that I cannot offer easily.
1
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Last edited by JonL4209 May 26, 2023 at 01:30 AM.
Joined Jul 2020
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ThirstyCruz
05-26-2023 at 02:11 AM.
05-26-2023 at 02:11 AM.
Quote from Gb1908 :
After default, rates likely to spike at least 1.5%

That's because it won't be paid it default and stays
Reply
Joined Feb 2018
L5: Journeyman
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DealFreak1
05-26-2023 at 02:18 AM.
05-26-2023 at 02:18 AM.
Quote from Peerless_Warrior :
I already have fidelity (individual brokerage, bloom and cash management). My bank account has been linked for 2yrs.

Thank you.


Edit: I see the problem. If I transfer money today it won't be settled before the auction.

Take at look at this, Titan Treasury is currently offering 4.96% APY. I have my money in there, let me know if need any details

https://www.titan.com/strategies/treasury
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Joined Jul 2018
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puncturepremium
05-26-2023 at 02:46 AM.
05-26-2023 at 02:46 AM.
Quote from Peerless_Warrior :
So help me out. I have 16k in a savings account. 3.9% interest. Should I dump that money into this via fidelity? I don't forsee any major purchases in the next year.

open up a bunch of bank accounts for 90 days. 16k is literally what i'm scrapping together for a bunch of bank bonuses lol
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Joined Jul 2009
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Jahlapenoez
05-26-2023 at 02:57 AM.
05-26-2023 at 02:57 AM.
Is the CMB final yield inversely related to the amount of dollars put up to buy these?

Asking if this idea goes viral and a ton of money pours into the next auction, will everyone's yield be significantly worse than what we could be doing in other short term instruments.
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Joined Dec 2022
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ElatedCrowd8695
05-26-2023 at 03:23 AM.
05-26-2023 at 03:23 AM.
Quote from puncturepremium :
open up a bunch of bank accounts for 90 days. 16k is literally what i'm scrapping together for a bunch of bank bonuses lol
Which banks are offering bonuses? I saw chase with 15k and wells with 25k?
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hindolam
05-26-2023 at 03:28 AM.
05-26-2023 at 03:28 AM.
Quote from Peerless_Warrior :
I already have fidelity (individual brokerage, bloom and cash management). My bank account has been linked for 2yrs.

Thank you.


Edit: I see the problem. If I transfer money today it won't be settled before the auction.
You should be good. You can initiate a bank transfer. You will be allowed to place an order. May 30 is the auction date. The money is needed on issue date which is Jun 1
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Joined Jul 2018
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puncturepremium
05-26-2023 at 03:29 AM.
05-26-2023 at 03:29 AM.
Quote from ElatedCrowd8695 :
Which banks are offering bonuses? I saw chase with 15k and wells with 25k?

chase had the checking and savings for a total of 600 for 90 days. i was told to leave in bank for 4 months just in case but i'm withdrawing immediately afterwards
1
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Joined Jul 2019
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Gb1908
05-26-2023 at 03:32 AM.
05-26-2023 at 03:32 AM.
Quote from ThirstyCruz :
That's because it won't be paid it default and stays

Old debts get defaulted on.. new debts less likely.. cause they need the money.
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ubthca11
05-26-2023 at 03:40 AM.
05-26-2023 at 03:40 AM.
Quote from JimB3957 :
Vanguard does sell individual treasuries.
That's good news. Any chance you can help a brother out? Is there a ticker? How do I find a treasury similar to what OP posted at Vanguard?
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Joined Aug 2011
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1960Brookwood
05-26-2023 at 03:49 AM.
05-26-2023 at 03:49 AM.
Quote from ubthca11 :
That's good news. Any chance you can help a brother out? Is there a ticker? How do I find a treasury similar to what OP posted at Vanguard?
Click on view detailed rates and treasuries will come up also.


https://investor.vanguard.com/inv...oducts/cds
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SociableMitten9678
05-26-2023 at 03:56 AM.
05-26-2023 at 03:56 AM.
Quote from ubthca11 :
that's good newsny chance you can help a brother outs there a tickerow do i find a treasury similar to what op posted at vanguard?
912797fj1
Reply
Joined Nov 2010
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Original Poster
zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 04:11 AM.
05-26-2023 at 04:11 AM.
Quote from Peerless_Warrior :
Edit: I see the problem. If I transfer money today it won't be settled before the auction.

For Fidelity at least, they will let you use your money to place order the same day of the transfer. There won't be any problem particularly this isn't a new bank link.

I pretty much put all my savings in treasury now except some for monthly bills. Some investment money also moved there since the stock market is not the place to be unless for shorts. I order a few treasury every week, always one bond a time. you never know when and which one will have higher yield.
Reply
Last edited by zjs2k May 26, 2023 at 04:17 AM.
Joined Jun 2006
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tlowing
05-26-2023 at 04:20 AM.
05-26-2023 at 04:20 AM.
Can someone explain how to do this on etrade?
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Joined Nov 2010
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Original Poster
zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 04:23 AM.
05-26-2023 at 04:23 AM.
Quote from TheStig540 :
What is the difference between a TBill and CMB?

Someone already answered correctly. This is a much flexible way for treasury to get some extra money. I don't know if recent abundant CMB related to the debt ceiling thing. But we should all take advantage of the high yields.

CMB usually (maybe always) added on top of previously issued bills. Depending on the announcement day and the original bill mature day, we got all the weird duration for CMB. If you check their announcement, there is always some outstanding already, which was the bills sold in the original issues.
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