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US Treasury CMB 161-day bill. Expected yield 5.27%, may go higher

647 213 May 25, 2023 at 02:49 PM in Finance (7)
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Last Edited by zjs2k May 31, 2023 at 02:27 AM
+64 Deal Score
66,913 Views
NOTE:
The yields listed here are annualized (APY).
The CUSIP for this CMB is 912797FJ1.
Current expected yield according to Fidelity is 5.3% (May 26), 5.268% (May 27).

Final edit: the result was out (May 30): 5.562% (investment rate, equivalent to APY).

This thread was moved out of the "Hot Deals" forum (understandably. I don't think Treasury will give SD a cut for promoting their T-Bills Haha!). Despite received much less attention than the other Treasury threads, I hope everyone read this got some useful information (like the difference between CMB and T-bills, or there are bills called CMB). I can't vouch for anyone else's comments here, but I tried to be clear about things that I know, I assume, I guess or I don't know in my comments.

Final recommendation: continue to purchase the Bills of all durations as long as they remain high yields. At 5+% yield with essentially 0 risk, it makes the risky investment in stocks / bitcoin or similar becomes less and less attractive.

=======

Since Treasury's CMB doesn't have a fixed schedule, which leads to less competitive bids, which in turn **usually"" leads to higher yield. This 161-day bill announced today has an expected yield of 5.27% according to Fidelity. But it **could** be higher. Example: last week's 21-day bill estimated yield ~ 5.5% (can't remember exactly). The final yield was 6.3+%.

Note: you can only buy it through brokers. Fidelity allows multiples of $1000 ("1 bond"). ETrade is multiples of $5000.

Seepost #163771055 for additional info on ETrade (Thanks to Jayman007)

The auction day is May 30. Be sure to place the order before then. (Before 12 AM for non-competitive CMB. Brokers may stop take orders before then. So place order early.)

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/au.../upcoming/

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Joined Jan 2009
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drlux
05-26-2023 at 08:31 AM.
05-26-2023 at 08:31 AM.
So how do I place a bid for CMB on TreasuryDirect?
2
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hardworker
05-26-2023 at 08:42 AM.
05-26-2023 at 08:42 AM.
Quote from tlowing :
Can someone explain how to do this on etrade?
I did this with my etrade account.
Go to trading
go to bonds and CDs
The first thuing you see is US treasuries.
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Joined Oct 2011
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veeceekayvee
05-26-2023 at 08:52 AM.
05-26-2023 at 08:52 AM.
dumb question...in Fidelity website, what is there difference with this and the ones showing under 'News&Reasearch-Fixed Income, Bonds &CDs - New issues- Treasury'. My question is because, i dont see the mentioned CUSIP in this post under that section.
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Daddio1949
05-26-2023 at 08:54 AM.
05-26-2023 at 08:54 AM.
Quote from drlux :
So how do I place a bid for CMB on TreasuryDirect?
After you login at the TreasuryDirect click on the BuyDirect and select 'Bills - Short-term securities of 1 year or less and follow the directions.
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Joined Dec 2005
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Daddio1949
05-26-2023 at 08:58 AM.
05-26-2023 at 08:58 AM.
Quote from veeceekayvee :
dumb question...in Fidelity website, what is there difference with this and the ones showing under 'News&Reasearch-Fixed Income, Bonds &CDs - New issues- Treasury'. My question is because, i dont see the mentioned CUSIP in this post under that section.
The YouTube lady knows all. How to buy T-bills at Fidelity & TreasuryDirect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r...eMc&t=986s

These videos do not take that long to watch.
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Joined Apr 2013
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romeov
05-26-2023 at 09:05 AM.
05-26-2023 at 09:05 AM.
Quote from Daddio1949 :
As already stated, Vanguard and other brokerage firms offer the ability to buy and sell T-bills at auction and secondary markets. If you are unsure on how to do so, the following YouTube video explains how to do so,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luCA-a-FPX8
The presenter has how-to videos also for Fidelity and Schwab.

When you buy T-bills at auction, you are not charged a commission by Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab. I can't attest if other brokers charge a commission for auctioned T-bills. In contrast, brokerages usually charge a commission on T-bill bought or sold on the secondary market. If you're buying a couple of T-bills on the secondary market, your total return may not be that much greater than if you bought at auction due to the commission.

The above YouTube video presenter, Diamond NestEgg, has numerous videos on Cash Management Bills (CMB) and explains the difference between T-bills and CMBs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zj5a80qbRI

The income from T-bills are tax exempt from state and local taxes, not federal. To an extent federal money market funds can also be tax exempt but depends upon your state. Some states may disallow income from a federal money market fund depending on what type of securities were held, for example T-bills versus repos. Over at https://bogleheads.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=1 there are threads dealing with state and local taxes on federal money market funds and various states. For example, here are a few of the threads,
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/...p?t=399695 and
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/...p?t=402505
Vanguard, Fidelity, & Schwab do not charge a fee for their own money market funds. While these discussions focus on Vanguard, the same principle applies to federal money market funds from other brokerages.


Finally, your end of year 1099-DIV from a federal money market fund may not provide information as to the proportion of the fund that was held in tax except government securities. However, brokerages can supply that information.


Finally, if you have a brokerage account at Vanguard (or Fidelity), the cash transferred into the account is invested immediately into their Federal Money Market Fund, VMFXX, as it is their settlement account.

This is awesome info for a newbie, thank you!
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Joined Jan 2009
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drlux
05-26-2023 at 09:19 AM.
05-26-2023 at 09:19 AM.
Quote from Daddio1949 :
After you login at the TreasuryDirect click on the BuyDirect and select 'Bills - Short-term securities of 1 year or less and follow the directions.
I did that but only see x-week T Bills...
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Joined Nov 2010
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zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 09:22 AM.
05-26-2023 at 09:22 AM.
Quote from Zerosvn :
So my schwab account has 6 month gov t bill bonds at 5.4 now. Should I pull the trigger or wait til next week? If they default, yield will be up so next week would be a better buy no?
Nobody knows what the yield will be. Those are estimates based on current market price, which is ~5.44% for 6-month. The actual yield will be on May 30.

Everyone will invest in their comfort zone. But IMO, if I keep waiting for better price, I will never actually buy anything. As investment, gradually entering is the way to go. Buy a bond ($1000) this week, another next week. If you have more money, spread them into different bills just in case there will be any dramatic changes.
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Joined Nov 2010
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Original Poster
zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 09:25 AM.
05-26-2023 at 09:25 AM.
Quote from drlux :
I did that but only see x-week T Bills...
I saw your previous post. You can not buy CMB at TreasuryDirect. It has to be at a broker, like Fidelity or Vanguard.
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Joined Nov 2010
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Original Poster
zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 09:30 AM.
05-26-2023 at 09:30 AM.
Quote from buffers :
I never bought these. What do I need to type in for limit price?
What I recommended was for new issues, non-competitive bid. It means you will get whatever the yield on May 30. So kind like place a market order for stocks.

Only large investors who would like to buy a few billion every week will enter competitive bidding, which will determine our final yield we get.
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Joined Nov 2010
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zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 09:34 AM.
05-26-2023 at 09:34 AM.
Quote from vikassd1 :
Thanks OP, what do I search on Fidelity?
On Fidelity, goto the top menu bar "News & Research", then "Fixed Income, Bonds & CDs". On the new page, select the "New Issues" tab. You need to be logged in now. Then open the "Treasury: 3" scrolling page. It's always tucked away to trick you to buy the Municipal below. Currently there are 3 treasury options. This CMB expires on 11/9.
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zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 09:41 AM.
05-26-2023 at 09:41 AM.
Quote from bloodshot2k6 :
I have asked several people including fidelity and they said its tax exempt. Can you tell me where i can find this information on losing state tax exemption?
IRA will not be taxed now. But when you take money out in the future, the profit including these yields will be taxed as income, if it is a traditional IRA. It doesn't matter for Roth because there will not be any tax on Roth distributions.
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Joined Dec 2007
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cwolf
05-26-2023 at 09:43 AM.
05-26-2023 at 09:43 AM.
Quote from drlux :
I did that but only see x-week T Bills...

As I recall, CMB only thru broker only. So u only see tbill.
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Joined Dec 2005
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Daddio1949
05-26-2023 at 10:51 AM.
05-26-2023 at 10:51 AM.
Quote from zjs2k :
IRA will not be taxed now. But when you take money out in the future, the profit including these yields will be taxed as income, if it is a traditional IRA. It doesn't matter for Roth because there will not be any tax on Roth distributions.
When removing funds from a traditional IRA, the entire amount is taxed, not just the profit.

Why? All money when initially placed into a traditional IRA is not taxed;; consequently the entire proceeds (initial investment plus any profit) are taxed when taken out of the IRA.

In contrast, all money when initially placed into a Roth IRA is taxed, and when removed the entire amount is not taxed.
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spoolin01
05-26-2023 at 11:02 AM.
05-26-2023 at 11:02 AM.
Quote from bloodshot2k6 :
I have asked several people including fidelity and they said its tax exempt. Can you tell me where i can find this information on losing state tax exemption?
It's tax exempt, but that doesn't matter because nothing in an IRA or 401K is taxed as it normally would be, until withdrawal at retirement and then it's all taxed the same, as income. Doesn't matter short-term capital gains, long-term capital gains, interest on tax-protected Treasuries or Municipals - all gains are taxed as income if it comes out of an IRA or 401K, whenever you finally withdraw the funds upon retirement. That's why you don't want to invest in things that offer tax advantages, because you lose them if you invest from within a retirement account.
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