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US Treasury CMB 161-day bill. Expected yield 5.27%, may go higher

647 213 May 25, 2023 at 02:49 PM in Finance (7)
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Last Edited by zjs2k May 31, 2023 at 02:27 AM
+64 Deal Score
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NOTE:
The yields listed here are annualized (APY).
The CUSIP for this CMB is 912797FJ1.
Current expected yield according to Fidelity is 5.3% (May 26), 5.268% (May 27).

Final edit: the result was out (May 30): 5.562% (investment rate, equivalent to APY).

This thread was moved out of the "Hot Deals" forum (understandably. I don't think Treasury will give SD a cut for promoting their T-Bills Haha!). Despite received much less attention than the other Treasury threads, I hope everyone read this got some useful information (like the difference between CMB and T-bills, or there are bills called CMB). I can't vouch for anyone else's comments here, but I tried to be clear about things that I know, I assume, I guess or I don't know in my comments.

Final recommendation: continue to purchase the Bills of all durations as long as they remain high yields. At 5+% yield with essentially 0 risk, it makes the risky investment in stocks / bitcoin or similar becomes less and less attractive.

=======

Since Treasury's CMB doesn't have a fixed schedule, which leads to less competitive bids, which in turn **usually"" leads to higher yield. This 161-day bill announced today has an expected yield of 5.27% according to Fidelity. But it **could** be higher. Example: last week's 21-day bill estimated yield ~ 5.5% (can't remember exactly). The final yield was 6.3+%.

Note: you can only buy it through brokers. Fidelity allows multiples of $1000 ("1 bond"). ETrade is multiples of $5000.

Seepost #163771055 for additional info on ETrade (Thanks to Jayman007)

The auction day is May 30. Be sure to place the order before then. (Before 12 AM for non-competitive CMB. Brokers may stop take orders before then. So place order early.)

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/au.../upcoming/

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Joined Nov 2010
L5: Journeyman
> bubble2 647 Posts
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Original Poster
zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 06:03 PM.
05-26-2023 at 06:03 PM.
Quote from Peerless_Warrior :
Yeah, I have a debit card from the cash account and bloom. The latter has .10¢ back per purchase. I've never used the card an ATM. Just do transfers from an external bank.

My bank is giving 3.9% for interest (capital one). I wouldn't say it's emergency money per se. My plan is to save for a house, if the market improves. By EOY the balance should double. I have a strict budget
Sounds like TBills is a good place for your money. Depending on how close you are buying a house, a few months span is the current TBills with the highest yield, including this CMB ~ 5-6 months.
If you are thinking ahead until end of the year, you should do graduate purchase of treasury to capture any potential higher future yields.
Reply
Last edited by zjs2k May 26, 2023 at 06:05 PM.
Joined Sep 2011
L6: Expert
> bubble2 1,222 Posts
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spoolin01
05-26-2023 at 06:56 PM.
05-26-2023 at 06:56 PM.
Quote from bloodshot2k6 :
Whats the pros and cons of cds vs. Tbills, especially in an IRA? Seems the same to me.
Not too different. No lockup or cashout penalty with T's obviously. Some ability to sell T-Bills and Notes early to accelerate gains if rates move down. Opportunity with T's >1yr to take gains as mostly capital and not income. What are the longest CDs available and do they compare to T-Note rates?
Reply
Last edited by spoolin01 May 26, 2023 at 07:02 PM.
Joined Oct 2008
L6: Expert
> bubble2 1,897 Posts
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veeRob
05-26-2023 at 06:59 PM.
05-26-2023 at 06:59 PM.
Quote from zjs2k :
Yes, you are correct. You can buy CMB only through a broker.
Odd, until your comment I thought TD Ameritraade was a broker. How do they differ from the brokerages that do offer these products.
Reply
Joined Sep 2011
L6: Expert
> bubble2 1,222 Posts
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spoolin01
05-26-2023 at 07:14 PM.
05-26-2023 at 07:14 PM.
Quote from Daddio1949 :
The Cash Management Bills (CMB) are not available through TreasuryDirect and apparently some brokerages, for example Schwab and Vanguard. But, if you are buying for a tax deferred account, then you could buy some of the high yielding CDs, which are yielding similar returns. As stated earlier there is no advantage to owning tax exempt securities in a tax deferred account.

You can always start a Fidelity brokerage account if you are determined to own CMBs. Fidelity brokerage and checking are considered top notch.
Have never looked much at CDs, and this is the first I've heard about CMBs. What I do like about Treasuries is the liquidity.
Reply
Joined Dec 2011
Two Minds Became One
> bubble2 13,701 Posts
Peerless_Warrior
05-26-2023 at 09:10 PM.
05-26-2023 at 09:10 PM.
Quote from zjs2k :
Sounds like TBills is a good place for your money. Depending on how close you are buying a house, a few months span is the current TBills with the highest yield, including this CMB ~ 5-6 months.
If you are thinking ahead until end of the year, you should do graduate purchase of treasury to capture any potential higher future yields.
I'd like to buy a house in 5yrs or slightly more. In my 20s so it's not an immediate goal. I really don't mind investing so long as it's not in single stocks, due to their instability. My dad introduced me to stocks in 2021... Blind trust caused me to lose ~64k.

I'm going to research this tbill stuff when I'm off.
Reply
Joined Nov 2010
L5: Journeyman
> bubble2 647 Posts
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Original Poster
zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 09:38 PM.
05-26-2023 at 09:38 PM.
Quote from veeRob :
Odd, until your comment I thought TD Ameritraade was a broker. How do they differ from the brokerages that do offer these products.
I have TDAmeritrade account as well. I just looked and I saw only regular treasuries but not CMB. This is news to me as well. I never bought any at TD. My only guess is that not all brokers sell CMB.
Reply
Joined Nov 2010
L5: Journeyman
> bubble2 647 Posts
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Original Poster
zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 09:44 PM.
05-26-2023 at 09:44 PM.
Quote from Peerless_Warrior :
I'd like to buy a house in 5yrs or slightly more. In my 20s so it's not an immediate goal. I really don't mind investing so long as it's not in single stocks, due to their instability. My dad introduced me to stocks in 2021... Blind trust caused me to lose ~64k.

I'm going to research this tbill stuff when I'm off.
5 yrs are not that long, but you might be at the right time. When, not if, the stock market crashes down, you probably can start get back in a year or two, when everyone tells you stock market is too dangerous, just like now everyone tells you the stock market is the place to be.
I am not talking about speculation, I am talking about investment. When in 20s, you should plan for the next a few decades, not next a few weeks, not to mention days or hours. I wish I knew that when I was in 20s.
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Joined Nov 2010
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Original Poster
zjs2k
05-26-2023 at 09:46 PM.
05-26-2023 at 09:46 PM.
Quote from spoolin01 :
Have never looked much at CDs, and this is the first I've heard about CMBs. What I do like about Treasuries is the liquidity.
CMB is not very far behind. If I remember correctly, this CMB is around 40-50 billions. The original 6-month bill this CMB tagged on issued about 100 billions in early May.
Reply
Joined Jul 2013
L7: Teacher
> bubble2 2,462 Posts
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thelegaldreamteam
05-27-2023 at 12:48 AM.
05-27-2023 at 12:48 AM.
Hey guys, what happens if the government goes broke? Oh wait, never mind. They've been broke since the FED.
Reply
Joined Jul 2013
L7: Teacher
> bubble2 2,462 Posts
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thelegaldreamteam
05-27-2023 at 12:51 AM.
05-27-2023 at 12:51 AM.
Quote from Peerless_Warrior :
I'd like to buy a house in 5yrs or slightly more. In my 20s so it's not an immediate goal. I really don't mind investing so long as it's not in single stocks, due to their instability. My dad introduced me to stocks in 2021... Blind trust caused me to lose ~64k.

I'm going to research this tbill stuff when I'm off.

The best financial decision would be to save for house cash. Even if it's smaller than desired. You'll save ten or hundreds of thousands in interest rates. Plus, it goes up in value. Buying a house should be your first priority financially. Unless you have debt. Paying that debt would come first.
Reply
Joined Jul 2013
L7: Teacher
> bubble2 2,462 Posts
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thelegaldreamteam
05-27-2023 at 12:52 AM.
05-27-2023 at 12:52 AM.
Quote from zjs2k :
Not much, then. I won't argue the safety between Tbills and CDs. I would say go with the highest CD yield.

Unless those cds were with silicone valley bank.
Reply
Joined Dec 2004
L5: Journeyman
> bubble2 958 Posts
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AMurderOfCrows
05-27-2023 at 02:44 AM.
05-27-2023 at 02:44 AM.
i got to seeing this thread too late. ETrade doesn't have funds until june 2nd.

Fidelity only had my HSA and 401k so i had to add my checking account and that won't become active for a few days.

hopefully the rates will still be this good next week?
Reply
Joined Dec 2005
L4: Apprentice
> bubble2 359 Posts
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Daddio1949
05-27-2023 at 03:20 AM.
05-27-2023 at 03:20 AM.
Quote from spoolin01 :
Have never looked much at CDs, and this is the first I've heard about CMBs. What I do like about Treasuries is the liquidity.
Treasuries are liquid as you can sell them on the secondary market. Remember, though, that you will pay a commission on sales in the secondary market. So, if you only invested a $1,000 or 2 in treasuries, the tax exempt advantage evaporates.

Not much mentioned in this thread are federal money market funds. They are highly liquid and almost always can be bought or sold for $1. Currently, Vanguards Treasury Money Market Fund, VUSXX, shows a 5.03% yield. A month or so ago I was able to sell and move the proceeds from VUSXX to my checking account in 2 days.
Reply
Joined Feb 2012
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icefresh
05-27-2023 at 03:48 AM.
05-27-2023 at 03:48 AM.
Quote from ElatedCrowd8695 :
Which banks are offering bonuses? I saw chase with 15k and wells with 25k?

You can check doctorofcredit.com
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Joined Dec 2005
Wake Up Neo
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razed by wolves
05-27-2023 at 04:39 AM.
05-27-2023 at 04:39 AM.
Quote from JonL4209 :
maybe I am too stupid, this instruction seems very hard for me...
certainly, there is a learning curve to start buying these bond

I never managed to even create an usdirect account... as they asked for some information that I cannot offer easily.
There are certain things you need to know and it's complicated but you can definitely do it. I purchased a significant quantity of T-bills through my self-directed IRA's at Fidelity and Vanguard using the directions in this how to by 'Diamond NestEgg" on the tube.

Yes, she promotes membership in her 'Supersavers club' but she's knowledgeable, to the point and the information is aimed at novices. There are certain advantages to not using Treasury Direct.

Highly recommend: https://youtu.be/rFuiC-UNeMc [youtube.com]
Reply
Last edited by razed by wolves May 27, 2023 at 05:14 AM.
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